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South Africa: Macroeconomic Challenges after a Decade of Success

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Author Info
Frankel, Jeffrey (Harvard U)
Smit, Ben (U of Stellenbosch)
Sturzenegger, Federico (Harvard U)

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Abstract

More than halfway through the new decade, the South African economy has done very well. Growth was high in 2004, 2005 and 2006, capital inflows and the rand are strong, the budget is relatively healthy, and inflation rates and interest rates are low. As democracy continues to consolidate, there are plenty of grounds for optimism; in fact business confidence indicators and private investment are at an all time high. This report asks the question if such achievements provide grounds for complacency. In other words, is the job done? Or do these achievements open the door to new challenges? Are there risks in the horizon? And how does the government’s ASGI-SA strategy deal with the challenges?

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Paper provided by Harvard University, John F. Kennedy School of Government in its series Working Paper Series with number rwp07-021.

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Date of creation: Apr 2007
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Handle: RePEc:ecl:harjfk:rwp07-021

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  1. Arminio Fraga & Ilan Goldfajn & Andre Minella, 2003. "Inflation Targeting in Emerging Market Economies," NBER Working Papers 10019, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  2. Frederic S. Mishkin, 2004. "Can Inflation Targeting Work in Emerging Market Countries?," NBER Working Papers 10646, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  3. Bean, Charles R, 1983. "Targeting Nominal Income: An Appraisal," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 93(372), pages 806-19, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  4. Brender, Adi & Drazen, Allan, 2005. "Political budget cycles in new versus established democracies," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 52(7), pages 1271-1295, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  5. Frankel, Jeffrey, 1995. "The Stabilizing Properties of a Nominal GNP Rule," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 27(2), pages 318-34, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  6. James Tobin, 1980. "Stabilization Policy Ten Years After," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 11(1980-1), pages 19-90. [Downloadable!]
  7. Henry, Peter B., 2006. "Capital Account Liberalization: Theory, Evidence, and Speculation," Research Papers 1951, Stanford University, Graduate School of Business. [Downloadable!]
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  8. Ricardo J. Caballero & Guido Lorenzoni, 2007. "Persistent Appreciations and Overshooting: A Normative Analysis," NBER Working Papers 13077, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  9. Ricardo J. Caballero & Arvind Krishnamurthy, 2003. "Inflation Targeting and Sudden Stops," NBER Working Papers 9599, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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