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South Africa: Macroeconomic Challenges after a Decade of Success

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  • Frankel, Jeffrey

    (Harvard U)

  • Smit, Ben

    (U of Stellenbosch)

  • Sturzenegger, Federico

    (Harvard U)

Abstract

More than halfway through the new decade, the South African economy has done very well. Growth was high in 2004, 2005 and 2006, capital inflows and the rand are strong, the budget is relatively healthy, and inflation rates and interest rates are low. As democracy continues to consolidate, there are plenty of grounds for optimism; in fact business confidence indicators and private investment are at an all time high. This report asks the question if such achievements provide grounds for complacency. In other words, is the job done? Or do these achievements open the door to new challenges? Are there risks in the horizon? And how does the government’s ASGI-SA strategy deal with the challenges?

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Paper provided by Harvard University, John F. Kennedy School of Government in its series Working Paper Series with number rwp07-021.

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Date of creation: Apr 2007
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Handle: RePEc:ecl:harjfk:rwp07-021

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  1. Arminio Fraga & Ilan Goldfajn & André Minella, 2004. "Inflation Targeting in Emerging Market Economies," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2003, Volume 18, pages 365-416 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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  7. Frederic S. Mishkin, 2004. "Can Inflation Targeting Work in Emerging Market Countries?," NBER Working Papers 10646, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  8. Edwin M. Truman, 2003. "Inflation Targeting in the World Economy," Peterson Institute Press: All Books, Peterson Institute for International Economics, number 346.
  9. Bean, Charles R, 1983. "Targeting Nominal Income: An Appraisal," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 93(372), pages 806-19, December.
  10. Frankel, Jeffrey, 1995. "The Stabilizing Properties of a Nominal GNP Rule," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 27(2), pages 318-34, May.
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  12. Jiri Jonas & Frederic S. Mishkin, 2003. "Inflation Targeting in Transition Countries: Experience and Prospects," NBER Working Papers 9667, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  13. Catherine A. Pattillo & Andrew Berg & Gian-Maria Milesi-Ferretti & Eduardo Borensztein, 2000. "Anticipating Balance of Payments Crises," IMF Occasional Papers 186, International Monetary Fund.
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Cited by:
  1. Tatiana Lysenko & Geoff Barnard, 2011. "Strengthening the Macroeconomic Policy Framework in South Africa," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 847, OECD Publishing.
  2. Philippe Aghion & Johannes Fedderke & Peter Howitt & Chandana Kularatne & Nicola Viegi, 2008. "Testing Creative Destruction in an Opening Economy: the Case of the South African Manufacturing Industries," Working Papers 93, Economic Research Southern Africa.
  3. Ramos Mabugu & Margaret Chitiga, 2007. "Poverty and Inequality Effects of a High Growth Scenario in South Africa: A Dynamic Microsimulation CGE Analysis," Working Papers 200716, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.
  4. Frankel, Jeffrey A., 2011. "A Comparison of Product Price Targeting and Other Monetary Anchor Options, for Commodity Exporters in Latin America," Working Paper Series rwp11-027, Harvard University, John F. Kennedy School of Government.
  5. Stan Du plessis & Ben Smit & Federico Sturzenegger, 2007. "The Cyclicality Of Monetary And Fiscal Policy In South Africa Since 1994," South African Journal of Economics, Economic Society of South Africa, vol. 75(3), pages 391-411, 09.
  6. Jeffrey A. Frankel, 2010. "A Comparison of Monetary Anchor Options, Including Product Price Targeting, for Commodity-Exporters in Latin America," NBER Working Papers 16362, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  7. Stan du Plessis & Ben Smit & Federico Sturzenegger, 2008. "Identifying Aggregate Supply and Demand Shocks in South Africa †," Journal of African Economies, Centre for the Study of African Economies (CSAE), vol. 17(5), pages 765-793, November.
  8. Stan Du Plessis & Kevin Kotze, 2012. "Trends and Structural Changes in South African Macroeconomic Volatility," Working Papers 297, Economic Research Southern Africa.
  9. Frankel, Jeffrey, 2011. "Monetary Policy in Emerging Markets: A Survey," Working Paper Series rwp11-003, Harvard University, John F. Kennedy School of Government.
  10. Arne Heise, 2007. "Institutions, market constellations and growth: The case of South Africa," Annals of Economics and Finance, Society for AEF, vol. 8(2), pages 313-340, November.
  11. O'Gorman, Melanie, 2010. "Racial earnings inequality in South Africa: An assessment of policy options," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 32(6), pages 703-718, November.
  12. Drazen Derado, 2009. "Financial Integration and Financial Crisis: Croatia Approaching The EMU," Financial Theory and Practice, Institute of Public Finance, vol. 33(3), pages 299-328.

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