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How Should Monetary Policy Respond to Asset-Price Bubbles?

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Author Info
David Gruen (Australian Treasury)
Michael Plumb (Reserve Bank of Australia)
Andrew Stone (Reserve Bank of Australia)
Abstract

We present a simple macroeconomic model that includes a role for an asset-price bubble. We then derive optimal monetary policy settings for two policymakers: a skeptic, for whom the best forecast of future asset prices is the current price; and an activist, whose policy recommendations take into account the complete stochastic implications of the bubble. We show that the activist’s recommendations depend sensitively on the detailed stochastic properties of the bubble. In some circumstances the activist clearly recommends tighter policy than the skeptic, but in others the appropriate recommendation is to be looser. Our results highlight the stringent informational requirements inherent in an activist policy approach to handling asset-price bubbles.

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Publisher Info
Article provided by International Journal of Central Banking in its journal International Journal of Central Banking.

Volume (Year): 1 (2005)
Issue (Month): 3 (December)
Pages:
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Handle: RePEc:ijc:ijcjou:y:2005:q:4:a:1

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Find related papers by JEL classification:
E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
E60 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - General

References listed on IDEAS
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  1. Ben Bernanke & Mark Gertler, 2000. "Monetary Policy and Asset Price Volatility," NBER Working Papers 7559, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  2. Laurence Ball, 1994. "What Determines the Sacrifice Ratio?," NBER Chapters, in: Monetary Policy, pages 155-193 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!]
  3. Taylor, John B., 1993. "Discretion versus policy rules in practice," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 39(1), pages 195-214, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  4. Svensson, Lars E. O., 1997. "Inflation forecast targeting: Implementing and monitoring inflation targets," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 41(6), pages 1111-1146, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  5. Glenn Rudebusch, 1995. "What are the lags in monetary policy?," FRBSF Economic Letter, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue Feb 3. [Downloadable!]
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Cited by:
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  1. P. Siklos & M. Bohl, 2006. "Asset Prices as Indicators of Euro Area Monetary Policy: An Empirical Assessment of Their Role in a Taylor Rule," Working Papers eg0053, Wilfrid Laurier University, Department of Economics, revised 2006. [Downloadable!]
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  2. Meenakshi Basant Roi & Rhys R. Mendes, 2007. "Should Central Banks Adjust Their Target Horizons in Response to House-Price Bubbles?," Discussion Papers 07-4, Bank of Canada. [Downloadable!]
  3. G. C. Lim & Paul D. McNelis, 2006. "Inflation Targeting, Learning and Q Volatility in Small Open Economies," Melbourne Institute Working Paper Series wp2006n22, Melbourne Institute of Applied Economic and Social Research, The University of Melbourne. [Downloadable!]
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  4. Ramón Adalid & Carsten Detken, 2007. "Liquidity shocks and asset price boom/bust cycles," Working Paper Series 732, European Central Bank. [Downloadable!]
  5. Frederic S. Mishkin, 2007. "Housing and the monetary transmission mechanism," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, pages 359-413. [Downloadable!]
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