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The Alleged Instability of Nominal Income Targeting

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Author Info
Bennett T. McCallum

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Abstract

Recently it has been argued that a monetary policy of nominal income and targeting" would result in dynamically unstable processes for output and inflation. That results holds in a" theoretical model that includes backward-looking IS an Phillips curve relations rather special and theoretically unattractive. The present paper demonstrates that replacement of" the special Phillips curve with one of several more plausible specifications overturns the" instability result, whether or not the IS equation is replaced with a forward-looking version. " Thus the instability result is quire fragile and therefore provides almost no basis for a negative" judgment regarding nominal income targeting.

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Paper provided by National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc in its series NBER Working Papers with number 6291.

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Date of creation: Nov 1997
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Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:6291

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Find related papers by JEL classification:
E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:

  1. Bennett T. McCallum, 1995. "A Semi-Classical Model of Price Level Adjustment," NBER Working Papers 4706, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  2. Frankel, Jeffrey, 1995. "The Stabilizing Properties of a Nominal GNP Rule," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 27(2), pages 318-34, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  3. McCallum, Bennett T., 1983. "On non-uniqueness in rational expectations models : An attempt at perspective," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 11(2), pages 139-168. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  4. Ratti, Ronald A, 1997. "The Stabilizing Properties of a Nominal GNP Rule: A Comment," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 29(2), pages 263-69, May.
  5. Robert E. Hall & N. Gregory Mankiw, 1994. "Nominal Income Targeting," NBER Chapters, in: Monetary Policy, pages 71-94 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  6. Laurence Ball, 1997. "Efficient rules for monetary policy," Reserve Bank of New Zealand Discussion Paper Series G97/3, Reserve Bank of New Zealand. [Downloadable!]
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  7. Lars E. O. Svensson, 1997. "Inflation Forecast Targeting: Implementing and Monitoring Inflation Targets," NBER Working Papers 5797, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  8. Bennett T. McCallum & Edward Nelson, 2000. "An Optimizing IS-LM Specification for Monetary Policy and Business Cycle Analysis," NBER Working Papers 5875, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  9. Bennett T. McCallum, 1997. "Issues in the Design of Monetary Policy Rules," NBER Working Papers 6016, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  10. Svensson, Lars E.O., 1997. "Inflation Targeting: Some Extensions," Seminar Papers 625, Stockholm University, Institute for International Economic Studies. [Downloadable!]
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  11. Michael Woodford, 1996. "Control of the Public Debt: A Requirement for Price Stability?," NBER Working Papers 5684, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  12. Blanchard, Olivier Jean & Kahn, Charles M, 1980. "The Solution of Linear Difference Models under Rational Expectations," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 48(5), pages 1305-11, July. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  13. Bennett T. McCallum, 1991. "Targets, Indicators, and Instruments of Monetary Policy," NBER Working Papers 3047, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  14. Rotemberg, Julio J, 1982. "Sticky Prices in the United States," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 90(6), pages 1187-1211, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  15. Bean, Charles R, 1983. "Targeting Nominal Income: An Appraisal," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 93(372), pages 806-19, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  16. Roberts, John M, 1995. "New Keynesian Economics and the Phillips Curve," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 27(4), pages 975-84, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  17. Taylor, John B., 1993. "Discretion versus policy rules in practice," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 39(1), pages 195-214, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  18. Fuhrer, Jeff & Moore, George, 1995. "Inflation Persistence," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 110(1), pages 127-59, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  19. William Kerr & Robert G. King, 1996. "Limits on interest rate rules in the IS model," Economic Quarterly, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond, issue Spr, pages 47-75. [Downloadable!]
Full references

Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Carl Walsh, 2001. "Speed Limit Policies: The Output Gap and Optimal Monetary Policy," CESifo Working Paper Series CESifo Working Paper No. , CESifo Group Munich. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  2. Lars E.O. Svensson, 1998. "Inflation Targeting as a Monetary Policy Rule," NBER Working Papers 6790, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  3. Diana N. Weymark, 2000. "Using Taylor Rules as Efficiency Benchmarks," Working Papers 0043, Department of Economics, Vanderbilt University, revised Sep 2001. [Downloadable!]
  4. Bennett T. McCallum & Edward Nelson, 2000. "Nominal Income Targeting in an Open-Economy Optimizing Model," NBER Working Papers 6675, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  5. Glenn D. Rudebusch, 2000. "Assessing nominal income rules for monetary policy with model and data uncertainty," Working Papers in Applied Economic Theory 2000-03, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  6. Diana N. Weymark, 2003. "Economic Structure, Policy Objectives, and Optimal Interest Rate Policy at Low Inflation Rates," Working Papers 0310, Department of Economics, Vanderbilt University. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  7. Helmut Frisch & Sylvia Staudinger, 2002. "Comparing Different Central Bank Targets," Empirica, Springer, vol. 29(1), pages 11-30, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  8. John Driffill & Zeno Rotondi, 2007. "Inertia in Taylor Rules," WEF Working Papers 0032, ESRC World Economy and Finance Research Programme, Birkbeck, University of London. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  9. Frisch, Helmut & Staudinger, Sylvia, 2000. "Inflation Targeting versus Nominal Income Targeting," CESifo Working Paper Series CESifo Working Paper No. , CESifo Group Munich. [Downloadable!]
  10. Kaushik Mitra, . "Desirability of Nominal GDP Targeting Under Adaptive Learning," Discussion Papers 00/60, Department of Economics, University of York. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  11. Glenn D. Rudebusch & Lars E.O. Svensson, 1999. "Eurosystem Monetary Targeting: Lessons from U.S. Data," NBER Working Papers 7179, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  12. Jean-Paul Lam, 2003. "Alternative Targeting Regimes, Transmission Lags, and the Exchange Rate Channel," Working Papers 03-39, Bank of Canada. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  13. Malik, Hamza, 2005. "Price Level vs. Nominal Income Targeting: Aggregate Demand Shocks and the Cost Channel of Monetary Policy Transmission," MPRA Paper 456, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised Aug 2006. [Downloadable!]
  14. Fernando Alexandre & John Drifill & Fabio Spagniolo, 2001. "Inflation Targeting and Exchange Rate Co-ordination," NIPE Working Papers 9/2001, NIPE - Universidade do Minho. [Downloadable!]
  15. Helmut Wagner, 2001. "Implications of Globalization for Monetary Policy," IMF Working Papers 01/184, International Monetary Fund. [Downloadable!]
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