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Too Much Too Soon: Instability and Indeterminacy with Forward-Looking Rules

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Author Info
Nicoletta Batini
Joseph Pearlman

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Abstract

This paper extends the existing literature on the uniqueness and stability conditions for an equilibrium under inflation-forecast-based (IFB) rules. It shows that, for a variety of New Keynesian sticky-price and sticky-inflation models, these are a function not just of the degree of responsiveness of the policy instrument to deviations of expected inflation at some horizon j from target, but rather of the ‘right’ combination of that degree and the chosen feedback horizon. In this respect we prove analytically that the determinacy results in Clarida et al (2000) cannot be generalised to the case of IFB rules with longer feedback horizons than one quarter. The paper shows how to identify the feedback/horizon pairs that are associated with unique and stable equilibria and unveils the analytical rationale behind instability or indeterminacy at too long a lag for a given feedback.

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Paper provided by Monetary Policy Committee Unit, Bank of England in its series Discussion Papers with number 08.

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Date of creation: 2002
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Handle: RePEc:mpc:wpaper:08

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Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
  1. Richard Clarida & Jordi Gali & Mark Gertler, 1999. "The Science of Monetary Policy: A New Keynesian Perspective," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 37(4), pages 1661-1707, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  2. Bernanke, Ben S & Woodford, Michael, 1997. "Inflation Forecasts and Monetary Policy," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 29(4), pages 653-84, November.
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  3. Lars E.O. Svensson & Michael Woodford, 2000. "Indicator Variables for Optimal Policy," NBER Working Papers 7953, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  4. Benhabib, Jess & Farmer, Roger E.A., 1999. "Indeterminacy and sunspots in macroeconomics," Handbook of Macroeconomics, in: J. B. Taylor & M. Woodford (ed.), Handbook of Macroeconomics, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 6, pages 387-448 Elsevier. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  7. Chow, Gregory C, 1970. "Optimal Stochastic Control of Linear Economic Systems," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 2(3), pages 291-302, August. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  9. Fuhrer, Jeffrey C, 1997. "The (Un)Importance of Forward-Looking Behavior in Price Specifications," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 29(3), pages 338-50, August.
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  10. Batini, Nicoletta & Nelson, Edward, 2001. "The Lag from Monetary Policy Actions to Inflation: Friedman Revisited," International Finance, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 4(3), pages 381-400, Winter. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  11. Ball, Laurence, 1999. "Efficient Rules for Monetary Policy," International Finance, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 2(1), pages 63-83, April. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  12. Michael Woodford, 2000. "Pitfalls of Forward-Looking Monetary Policy," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 90(2), pages 100-104, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  13. Charles T. Carlstrom & Timothy S. Fuerst, 2000. "Forward-looking versus backward-looking Taylor rules," Working Paper 0009, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland. [Downloadable!]
  14. Jess Benhabib & Stephanie Schmitt-Grohe & Martin Uribe, 2001. "Monetary Policy and Multiple Equilibria," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 91(1), pages 167-186, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  15. Svensson, Lars E. O., 1997. "Inflation forecast targeting: Implementing and monitoring inflation targets," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 41(6), pages 1111-1146, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  16. Nicoletta Batini & Stephen P. Millard & Richard Harrison, 2000. "Monetary Policy Rules For An Open Economy," Computing in Economics and Finance 2000 361, Society for Computational Economics. [Downloadable!]
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  17. Bennett T. McCallum & Edward Nelson, 2000. "An Optimizing IS-LM Specification for Monetary Policy and Business Cycle Analysis," NBER Working Papers 5875, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  18. Richard Clarida & Jordi Galí & Mark Gertler, 2000. "Monetary Policy Rules And Macroeconomic Stability: Evidence And Some Theory," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 115(1), pages 147-180, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  19. Michael Woodford, 1994. "Nonstandard Indicators for Monetary Policy: Can Their Usefulness Be Judged from Forecasting Regressions?," NBER Chapters, in: Monetary Policy, pages 95-115 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!]
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  21. Michael Woodford, 1996. "Control of the Public Debt: A Requirement for Price Stability?," NBER Working Papers 5684, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  22. Wu, Yangru & Zhang, Junxi, 2000. "Monopolistic competition, increasing returns to scale, and the welfare costs of inflation," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 46(2), pages 417-440, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  24. Bullard, James & Mitra, Kaushik, 2002. "Learning about monetary policy rules," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 49(6), pages 1105-1129, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  25. Svensson, Lars E O & Woodford, Michael, 2004. "Implementing Optimal Policy Through Inflation-Forecast Targeting," CEPR Discussion Papers 4229, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  26. Lawrence J. Christiano & Martin Eichenbaum & Charles Evans, 2001. "Nominal Rigidities and the Dynamic Effects of a Shock to Monetary Policy," NBER Working Papers 8403, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  30. Charles T. Carlstrom & Timothy S. Fuerst, 2001. "Real Indeterminacy in Monetary Models with Nominal Interest Rate Distortions," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 4(4), pages 767-789, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  31. Schmitt-Grohe, Stephanie & Uribe, Martin, 2000. "Price level determinacy and monetary policy under a balanced-budget requirement," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 45(1), pages 211-246, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  32. Farmer, Roger E. A. & Jang-Ting, Guo, 1995. "The econometrics of indeterminacy: an applied study," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 43(1), pages 225-271, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  33. N. Gregory Mankiw, 1994. "Monetary Policy," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number greg94-1.
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  35. John B. Taylor, 1998. "An Historical Analysis of Monetary Policy Rules," NBER Working Papers 6768, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  36. Salyer, Kevin D., 1995. "The macroeconomics of self-fulfilling prophecies A review essay," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 35(1), pages 215-242, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  37. Julia K. Thomas, 1998. "Do Sunspots Produce Business Cycles?," GSIA Working Papers 1999-E10, Carnegie Mellon University, Tepper School of Business. [Downloadable!]
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  40. Berger, Helge & de Haan, Jakob & Eijffinger, Sylvester C W, 2001. " Central Bank Independence: An Update of Theory and Evidence," Journal of Economic Surveys, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 15(1), pages 3-40, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  41. William Poole, 1999. "Monetary policy rules?," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, issue Mar, pages 3-12. [Downloadable!]
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Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Nicoletta Batini & Alejandro Justiniano & Paul Levine & Joseph Pearlman, 2004. "Robust Inflation-Forecast-Based Rules to Shield against Indeterminacy," Department of Economics Discussion Papers 0804, Department of Economics, University of Surrey. [Downloadable!]
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  2. Nicoletta Batini & Paul Levine & Joseph Pearlman, 2004. "Indeterminacy with inflation-forecast-based rules in a two-bloc model," International Finance Discussion Papers 797, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.). [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  3. Sharon Kozicki & P.A. Tinsley, 2007. "Perhaps the FOMC Did What It Said It Did: An Alternative Interpretation of the Great Inflation," Working Papers 07-19, Bank of Canada. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  4. Jagjit Chadha & Luisa Corrado, 2006. "Sunspots and Monetary Policy," Economics and Finance Discussion Papers 06-06, Economics and Finance Section, School of Social Sciences, Brunel University. [Downloadable!]
  5. Marc P. Giannoni & Michael Woodford, 2003. "Optimal Interest-Rate Rules: II. Applications," NBER Working Papers 9420, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  6. Robert J. Tetlow & Peter von zur Muehlen, 2005. "Robustifying learnability," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2005-58, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.). [Downloadable!]
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  7. Nicoletta Batini & Paul Levine, 2004. "Robust Control Rules to Shield Against Indeterminacy," Computing in Economics and Finance 2004 339, Society for Computational Economics. [Downloadable!]
  8. Paul Levine & Peter McAdam & Joseph Pearlman, 2007. "Inflation-Forecast-Based Rules and Indeterminacy: A Puzzle and a Resolution," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 3(4), pages 77-110, December. [Downloadable!]
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  9. Nicoletta Batini, 2002. "Euro area inflation persistence," Working Paper Series 201, European Central Bank. [Downloadable!]
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  10. Paul Levine & Peter McAdam & Joseph Pearlman & Richard Pierse, 2008. "Risk Management in Action. Robust monetary policy rules under structured uncertainty," Working Paper Series 870, European Central Bank. [Downloadable!]
  11. Eugenio Gaiotti, 2004. "Pitfalls of monetary policy under incomplete information: imprecise indicators and real indeterminacy," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 488, Bank of Italy, Economic Research Department. [Downloadable!]
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  12. Marc P. Giannoni & Michael Woodford, 2003. "Optimal Interest-Rate Rules: I. General Theory," NBER Working Papers 9419, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  13. Loisel, O., 2006. "Bubble-free interest-rate rules," Documents de Travail 161, Banque de France. [Downloadable!]
  14. Jagjit S. Chadha & Luisa Corrado, 2006. " On the Determinacy of Monetary Policy under Expectational Errors," CDMA Working Paper Series 0603, Centre for Dynamic Macroeconomic Analysis, revised Apr 2007. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
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