How forward-looking are central banks? Some evidence from their forecasts
AbstractWe estimate forward-looking Taylor rules on data from macroeconomic forecasts of three central banks in order to determine the extent to which these banks are forward-looking. We find that all three banks are to some extent forward-looking, albeit to a varying degree. In general, the horizons for inflation seem to be longer than for output. We also find that central banks prefer to concentrate on one particular horizon rather than take into account the whole forecast.
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Bibliographic InfoArticle provided by Taylor & Francis Journals in its journal Applied Economics Letters.
Volume (Year): 20 (2013)
Issue (Month): 2 (February)
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Other versions of this item:
- Michał Brzoza-Brzezina & Jacek Kotłowski & Agata Miśkowiec, 2012. "How forward looking are central banks? Some evidence from their forecasts," National Bank of Poland Working Papers 112, National Bank of Poland, Economic Institute.
- C25 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Discrete Regression and Qualitative Choice Models; Discrete Regressors; Proportions
- E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
- E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies
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