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How forward-looking is optimal monetary policy?

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Author Info
Marc Paolo Giannoni
Michael Woodford

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Abstract

We calculate optimal monetary policy rules for several variants of a simple optimizing model of the monetary transmission mechanism with sticky prices and/or wages. We show that robustly optimal rules can be represented by interest-rate feedback rules that generalize the celebrated proposal of Taylor (1993). Optimal rules, however, require that the current interest rate operating target depend positively on the recent past level of the operating target, and its recent rate of increase, in a way that is characteristic of estimated central bank reaction functions, but not of Taylor's proposal.

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Publisher Info
Article provided by Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland in its journal Proceedings.

Volume (Year): (2003)
Issue (Month): ()
Pages: 1425-1483
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Handle: RePEc:fip:fedcpr:y:2003:p:1425-1483

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Related research
Keywords: Monetary policy ; Banks and banking; Central ; Inflation (Finance);

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  1. Solange Gouvea & Abhijit Sen Gupta, 2007. "Monetary Policy Design under Competing Models of Inflation Persistence," Working Papers Series 137, Central Bank of Brazil, Research Department. [Downloadable!]
  2. Richard Dennis, 2008. "The Frequency Of Price Adjustment And New Keynesian Business Cycle Dynamics," CAMA Working Papers 2008-19, Australian National University, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis. [Downloadable!]
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  3. Páez-Farrell, Juan, 2007. "Monetary Policy Rules in Theory and in Practice: Evidence from the UK and the US," Cardiff Economics Working Papers E2007/13, Cardiff University, Cardiff Business School, Economics Section. [Downloadable!]
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  4. Boivin, J. & Giannoni, M., 2007. "DSGE Models in a Data-Rich Environment," Documents de Travail 162, Banque de France. [Downloadable!]
  5. Miguel Casares, 2006. "A close look at model-dependent monetary policy design," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, issue Sep, pages 451-470. [Downloadable!]
  6. Beyer, Andreas & Gaspar, Vítor & Gerberding, Christina & Issing, Otmar, 2009. "Opting out of the great inflation: German monetary policy after the breakdown of Bretton Woods," Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies 2009,12, Deutsche Bundesbank, Research Centre. [Downloadable!]
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  7. Vasco Gabriel & Paul Levine & Christopher Spencer, 2008. "How forward-looking is the Fed? Direct estimates from a `Calvo-type' rule," Department of Economics Discussion Papers 0508, Department of Economics, University of Surrey. [Downloadable!]
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  8. A. Hakan Kara, 2007. "Monetary Policy under Imperfect Commitment: Reconciling Theory with Evidence," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 3(1), pages 149-178, March. [Downloadable!]
  9. Ramón María-Dolores & Jesús Vázquez, 2006. "How Does the New Keynesian Monetary Model Fit in the U.S. and the Eurozone? An Indirect Inference Approach," The B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics, Berkeley Electronic Press, vol. 0(2). [Downloadable!]
  10. Ramón María-Dolores & Jesús Vázquez, 2005. "How Does the New Keynesian Monetary Model Fit in the U.S. and the Eurozone?," DFAEII Working Papers 200513, University of the Basque Country - Department of Foundations of Economic Analysis II, revised 08 Apr 2008. [Downloadable!]
  11. John Duffy & Wei Xiao, 2007. "Investment and Monetary Policy: Learning and Determinacy of Equilibrium," Working Papers 324, University of Pittsburgh, Department of Economics, revised Aug 2008. [Downloadable!]
  12. Marc P. Giannoni & Jean Boivin, 2005. "DSGE Models in a Data-Rich Environment," Computing in Economics and Finance 2005 431, Society for Computational Economics. [Downloadable!]
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  13. Loisel, O., 2006. "Bubble-free interest-rate rules," Documents de Travail 161, Banque de France. [Downloadable!]
  14. Ramón María-Dolores & Jesús Vázquez, 2004. "The New Keynesian Monetary Model: Does it Show the Comovement...?," DFAEII Working Papers 200405, University of the Basque Country - Department of Foundations of Economic Analysis II, revised 02 May 2008. [Downloadable!]
  15. Boivin, Jean & Giannoni, Marc, 2006. "Has Monetary Policy Become More Effective?," CEPR Discussion Papers 5463, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  16. Duffy, John & Xiao, Wei, 2004. "The value of interest rate stabilization polices when agents are learning," Working Papers 2004-02, University of New Orleans, Department of Economics and Finance. [Downloadable!]
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  17. Marc Giannoni, 2006. "Robust Optimal Policy in a Forward-Looking Model with Parameter and Shock Uncertainty," NBER Working Papers 11942, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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