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UK monetary policy 1972-97: a guide using Taylor rules

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Edward Nelson

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Abstract

This paper estimates simple interest rate reaction functions or 'Taylor rules' for different UK monetary policy regimes. In the period between the floating of sterling in June 1972 and the Bank of England receiving operational independence in May 1997, UK monetary policy went through several regimes, including: the early 1970s, when monetary policy was subordinate to incomes policy as the primary weapon against inflation; oM3 targeting in the late 1970s and early 1980s; moves in the late 1980s toward greater exchange rate management, culminating in UK membership of the ERM from 1990 to 1992; and inflation targeting from October 1992.

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Paper provided by Bank of England in its series Bank of England working papers with number 120.

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Handle: RePEc:boe:boeewp:120

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This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports: References listed on IDEAS
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  1. Richard Clarida & Jordi Gali & Mark Gertler, 1997. "Monetary Policy Rules in Practice: Some International Evidence," NBER Working Papers 6254, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  2. Peter N. Ireland, 2001. "Endogenous Money or Sticky Prices?," Boston College Working Papers in Economics 499, Boston College Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
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  3. Henderson, Dale W. & McKibbin, Warwick J., 1993. "A comparison of some basic monetary policy regimes for open economies: implications of different degrees of instrument adjustment and wage persistence," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 39(1), pages 221-317, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  4. Orphanides, Athanasios, 1999. "The Quest for Prosperity Without Inflation," Working Paper Series 93, Sveriges Riksbank (Central Bank of Sweden). [Downloadable!]
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  5. Taylor, John B., 1999. "The robustness and efficiency of monetary policy rules as guidelines for interest rate setting by the European central bank," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 43(3), pages 655-679, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  6. Bennett T. McCallum & Edward Nelson, 1998. "Performance of Operational Policy Rules in an Estimated Semi-Classical Structural Model," NBER Working Papers 6599, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  7. Nicoletta Batini & Edward Nelson, . "Optimal horizons for inflation targeting," Bank of England working papers 119, Bank of England. [Downloadable!]
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  8. Rudebusch, Glenn D, 1998. "Do Measures of Monetary Policy in a VAR Make Sense?," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 39(4), pages 907-31, November.
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  9. Frank Smets & Raf Wouters, 2002. "Monetary policy in an estimated stochastic dynamic general equilibrium model of the Euro area," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue Mar. [Downloadable!]
  10. Edward Nelson, . "Direct effects of base money on aggregate demand: theory and evidence," Bank of England working papers 122, Bank of England. [Downloadable!]
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  11. Johnson, Harry G., 1972. "The Monetary Approach to Balance-of-Payments Theory," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 7(02), pages 1555-1572, March. [Downloadable!]
  12. Lars E. O. Svensson, 2003. "What Is Wrong with Taylor Rules? Using Judgment in Monetary Policy through Targeting Rules," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 41(2), pages 426-477, June.
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  13. Barro, Robert J, 1977. "Unanticipated Money Growth and Unemployment in the United States," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 67(2), pages 101-15, March.
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  14. Muscatelli, V. Anton & Tirelli, Patrizio & Trecroci, Carmine, 2000. "Does Institutional Change Really Matter? Inflation Targets, Central Bank Reform and Interest Rate Policy in the OECD Countries," CESifo Working Paper Series CESifo Working Paper No. , CESifo Group Munich. [Downloadable!]
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  15. Richard Clarida & Jordi Galí & Mark Gertler, 2000. "Monetary Policy Rules And Macroeconomic Stability: Evidence And Some Theory," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 115(1), pages 147-180, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  16. Wright, Stephen, 1998. "Monetary Policy, Nominal Interest Rates, and Long-horizon Inflation Uncertainty," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 9820, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
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  17. Kenneth N. Kuttner & Adam S. Posen, 1999. "Does talk matter after all? Inflation targeting and central bank behavior," Staff Reports 88, Federal Reserve Bank of New York. [Downloadable!]
  18. Michael Woodford, 2001. "The Taylor Rule and Optimal Monetary Policy," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 91(2), pages 232-237, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  19. Goodhart, Charles, 1989. "The Conduct of Monetary Policy," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 99(396), pages 293-346, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  20. Martin, Christopher & Costas Milas, 2002. "Modelling Monetary Policy: Inflation Targeting in Practice," Royal Economic Society Annual Conference 2002 137, Royal Economic Society. [Downloadable!]
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  21. Peersman, Gert & Smets, Frank, 1999. "The Taylor Rule: A Useful Monetary Policy Benchmark for the Euro Area?," International Finance, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 2(1), pages 85-116, April. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Christos Ioannidis & Alexandros Kontonikas, 2006. "Monetary Policy and the Stock Market: Some International evidence," Working Papers 2006_12, Department of Economics, University of Glasgow. [Downloadable!]
  2. Christopher Martin & Costas Milas, 2005. "Uncertainty and UK Monetary Policy," Keele Economics Research Papers KERP 2005/11, Centre for Economic Research, Keele University. [Downloadable!]
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  3. Robert R Tchaidze, 2001. "Estimating Taylor Rules in a Real Time Setting," Economics Working Paper Archive 457, The Johns Hopkins University,Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
  4. Mehtap Kesriyeli & Denise R. Osborn & Marianne Sensier, 2004. "Nonlinearity and Structural Change in Interest Rate Reaction Functions for the US, UK and Germany," Working Papers 0414, Research and Monetary Policy Department, Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  5. Chadha, J.S. & Charles Nolan, 2002. "Inflation and Price Level Targeting in a New Keynesian Model," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 0203, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  6. Christopher Martin & Costas Milas, 2006. "The Impact of Uncertainty on Monetary Policy Rules in the UK," Keele Economics Research Papers KERP 2006/09, Centre for Economic Research, Keele University. [Downloadable!]
  7. Fabrizio Mattesini & Leonardo Becchetti, 2008. "The stock market and the Fed," CEIS Research Paper 113, Tor Vergata University, CEIS, revised 14 Jul 2008. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  8. David Meenagh & Patrick Minford & Eric Nowell & Prakriti Sofat & Naveen Srinivasan, 2007. "Are the facts of UK inflation persistence to be explained by nominal rigidity or changes in monetary regime?," WEF Working Papers 0028, ESRC World Economy and Finance Research Programme, Birkbeck, University of London. [Downloadable!]
  9. M. Ege Yazgan & Hakan Yilmazkuday, 2007. "Monetary policy rules in practice: evidence from Turkey and Israel," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 17(1), pages 1-8, January. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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