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Do Sunspots Produce Business Cycles?

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Author Info
Julia K. Thomas

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Abstract

We contrast the Farmer and Guo sunspots model with the Hansen indivisible labor real business cycle model using impulse responses, growth spectra, and Watson's measure of fit for calibrated models. We find that the sunspots model is better able to reproduce the typical spectral shape of growth rates found in the data. However, the model, characterized by production externalities and aggregate increasing returns, generates excessive investment volatility and overstates high frequency behavior in employment, investment and output series. The introduction of adjustment costs, in conjunction with separate externality parameters to capital and labor inputs, can reduce these weaknesses substantially, though this may require the assumption of an implausible level of increasing returns.

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Paper provided by Carnegie Mellon University, Tepper School of Business in its series GSIA Working Papers with number 1999-E10.

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Date of creation: Dec 1998
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Handle: RePEc:cmu:gsiawp:-476543995

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Postal: Tepper School of Business, Carnegie Mellon University, 5000 Forbes Avenue, Pittsburgh, PA 15213-3890
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  1. Nicoletta Batini & Joe Pearlman, 2002. "Too Much Too Soon: Instability and Indeterminacy with Forward-Looking Rules," Computing in Economics and Finance 2002 182, Society for Computational Economics. [Downloadable!]
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