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Do Sunspots Produce Business Cycles?

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  • Julia K. Thomas

Abstract

We contrast the Farmer and Guo sunspots model with the Hansen indivisible labor real business cycle model using impulse responses, growth spectra, and Watson's measure of fit for calibrated models. We find that the sunspots model is better able to reproduce the typical spectral shape of growth rates found in the data. However, the model, characterized by production externalities and aggregate increasing returns, generates excessive investment volatility and overstates high frequency behavior in employment, investment and output series. The introduction of adjustment costs, in conjunction with separate externality parameters to capital and labor inputs, can reduce these weaknesses substantially, though this may require the assumption of an implausible level of increasing returns.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Carnegie Mellon University, Tepper School of Business in its series GSIA Working Papers with number 1999-E10.

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Date of creation: Dec 1998
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Handle: RePEc:cmu:gsiawp:-476543995

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Postal: Tepper School of Business, Carnegie Mellon University, 5000 Forbes Avenue, Pittsburgh, PA 15213-3890
Web page: http://www.tepper.cmu.edu/

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Web: http://student-3k.tepper.cmu.edu/gsiadoc/GSIA_WP.asp

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Cited by:
  1. Ihle, Rico & von Cramon-Taubadel, Stephan, 2008. "A Comparison of Threshold Cointegration and Markov-Switching Vector Error Correction Models in Price Transmission Analysis," 2008 Conference, April 21-22, 2008, St. Louis, Missouri 37603, NCCC-134 Conference on Applied Commodity Price Analysis, Forecasting, and Market Risk Management.
  2. Nicoletta Batini & Joseph Pearlman, 2002. "Too Much Too Soon: Instability and Indeterminacy with Forward-Looking Rules," Discussion Papers 08, Monetary Policy Committee Unit, Bank of England.

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