How forward looking are central banks? Some evidence from their forecasts
AbstractWe estimate forward-looking Taylor rules on data from macroeconomic forecasts of three central banks (Bank of England, National Bank of Poland and Swiss National Bank) in order to determine the extent to which these banks are forward looking in their monetary policy decisions. We find that all three banks are to some extent forward-looking, however to a varying degree. With respect to inflation, the NBP and the SNB look far into the future, while the BoE seems to concentrate on current inflation. As to output, the BoE and the SNB take into account its future or current value while for the NBP this variable is insignificant. We also find that central banks prefer to concentrate on one particular horizon rather than take into account the whole forecast.
Download InfoIf you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by National Bank of Poland, Economic Institute in its series National Bank of Poland Working Papers with number 112.
Date of creation: 2012
Date of revision:
Contact details of provider:
Postal: 00-919 Warszawa ul. Świętokrzyska 11/21
Phone: (0-22) 653 10 00
Fax: (0-22) 620 85 18
Web page: http://www.nbp.pl/Homen.aspx?f=en/publikacje/materialy_i_studia/informacja_en.html
More information through EDIRC
Taylor rule; forward-looking monetary policy; feedback horizon;
Other versions of this item:
- Michał Brzoza-Brzezina & Jacek Kotłowski & Agata Miśkowiec, 2013. "How forward-looking are central banks? Some evidence from their forecasts," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 20(2), pages 142-146, February.
- C25 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Discrete Regression and Qualitative Choice Models; Discrete Regressors; Proportions
- E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
- E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies
This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:
- NEP-ALL-2012-05-02 (All new papers)
- NEP-CBA-2012-05-02 (Central Banking)
- NEP-FOR-2012-05-02 (Forecasting)
- NEP-MAC-2012-05-02 (Macroeconomics)
- NEP-MON-2012-05-02 (Monetary Economics)
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- N. Batini & P. Levine & J. Pearlman, 2003.
"Indeterminacy with inflation-forecast-cased rules in a two-bloc model,"
Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
- Nicoletta Batini & Paul Levine & Joseph Pearlman, 2004. "Indeterminacy with inflation-forecast-based rules in a two-bloc model," International Finance Discussion Papers 797, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
- Nicoletta Batini & Paul Levine & Joseph Pearlman, 2004. "Indeterminacy with Inflation-Forecast-Based Rules in a Two-Bloc Model," School of Economics Discussion Papers 0204, School of Economics, University of Surrey.
- Batini, Nicoletta & Levine, Paul & Pearlman, Joseph G., 2004. "Indeterminacy with inflation-forecast-based rules in a two-bloc model," Working Paper Series 0340, European Central Bank.
- Aaron Drew & Adrian Orr, 1999. "The Reserve Bank's role in the recent business cycle: actions and evolutions," Reserve Bank of New Zealand Bulletin, Reserve Bank of New Zealand, vol. 62, March.
- Jamie Gascoigne & Paul Turner, 2004.
"Asymmetries in Bank of England monetary policy,"
Applied Economics Letters,
Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 11(10), pages 615-618.
- Kai Carstensen, 2006. "Estimating the ECB Policy Reaction Function," German Economic Review, Verein für Socialpolitik, vol. 7, pages 1-34, 02.
- Joyce, Michael & Lasaosa, Ana & Stevens , Ibrahim & Tong, Matthew, 2010. "The financial market impact of quantitative easing," Bank of England working papers 393, Bank of England.
- Jan Strasky, 2005. "Optimal Forward-Looking Policy Rules in the Quarterly Projection Model of the Czech National Bank," Research and Policy Notes 2005/05, Czech National Bank, Research Department.
- Davutyan, Nurhan & Parke, William R, 1995. "The Operations of the Bank of England, 1890-1908: A Dynamic Probit Approach," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 27(4), pages 1099-1112, November.
- Eichengreen, Barry & Watson, Mark W & Grossman, Richard S, 1985. "Bank Rate Policy under the Interwar Gold Standard: A Dynamic Probit Model," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 95(379), pages 725-45, September.
- Leitemo, Kai, 2008. "Inflation-targeting rules: History-dependent or forward-looking?," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 100(2), pages 267-270, August.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Ewa Szymecka).
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.