Thanaset Chevapatrakul () (Department of Economics, Loughborough University) Tae-Hwan Kim () (Deparment of Economics, University of Nottingham) Paul Mizen () (Department of Economics, University of Nottingham)
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Making accurate forecasts of the future direction of interest rates is a vital element when making economic decisions. The focus on central banks as they make decisions about the future direction of interest rates requires the forecaster to assess the likely outcome of comittee decisions based on new information since the previous meeting. We characterize this process as a dynamic ordered probit process that uses information to decide between three possible outcomes for interest rates: an increase, decrease or no-change. When we analyze the predictive ability of two information sets, we find that the approach has predictive ability both in-sample and out-of-sample that helps forecast the direction of future rates.
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Paper provided by Department of Economics, Loughborough University in its series Discussion Paper Series with number
2007_26.
Find related papers by JEL classification: E47 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Forecasting and Simulation E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy