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Conditional Heteroscedasticity in Qualitative Response Models of Time Series: A Gibbs-Sampling Approach to the Bank Prime Rate

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Author Info
Dueker, Michael

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Abstract

Previous time series applications of qualitative response models have ignored features of the data, such as conditional heteroscedasticity, that are routinely addressed in time series econometrics of financial data. This article addresses this issue by adding Markov-switching heteroscedasticity to a dynamic ordered probit model of discrete changes in the bank prime lending rate and estimating via the Gibbs sampler. The dynamic ordered probit model of Eichengreen, Watson, and Grossman allows for serial autocorrelation in probit analysis of a time series, and this article demonstrates the relative simplicity of estimating a dynamic ordered probit using the Gibbs sampler instead of the Eichengreen et al. maximum likelihood procedure. In addition, the extension to regime-switching parameters and conditional heteroscedasticity is easy to implement under Gibbs sampling. The article compares tests of goodness of fit between dynamic ordered probit models of the prime rate that have constant variance and conditional heteroscedasticity.

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Publisher Info
Article provided by American Statistical Association in its journal Journal of Business and Economic Statistics.

Volume (Year): 17 (1999)
Issue (Month): 4 (October)
Pages: 466-72
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Handle: RePEc:bes:jnlbes:v:17:y:1999:i:4:p:466-72

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References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
  1. Henri Bernard & Stefan Gerlach, 1996. "Does the term structure predict recessions? The international evidence," BIS Working Papers 37, Bank for International Settlements. [Downloadable!]
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  2. Hamilton, James D, 1989. "A New Approach to the Economic Analysis of Nonstationary Time Series and the Business Cycle," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 57(2), pages 357-84, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  3. Bollerslev, Tim & Chou, Ray Y. & Kroner, Kenneth F., 1992. "ARCH modeling in finance : A review of the theory and empirical evidence," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 52(1-2), pages 5-59. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  4. Hausman, Jerry A. & Lo, Andrew W. & MacKinlay, A. Craig, 1992. "An ordered probit analysis of transaction stock prices," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 31(3), pages 319-379, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  5. Hamilton, James D., 1990. "Analysis of time series subject to changes in regime," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 45(1-2), pages 39-70. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  6. Estrella, Arturo & Mishkin, Frederic S., 1997. "The predictive power of the term structure of interest rates in Europe and the United States: Implications for the European Central Bank," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 41(7), pages 1375-1401, July. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  7. Engle, Robert F, 1982. "Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity with Estimates of the Variance of United Kingdom Inflation," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 50(4), pages 987-1007, July. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Rami Zwick & Amnon Rapoport & Alison King Chung Lo & A. V. Muthukrishnan, 2001. "Consumer Search: Not Enough Or Too Much?," Experimental 0110002, EconWPA. [Downloadable!]
  2. Michael D. Bordo & Michael J. Dueker & David C. Wheelock, 2001. "Aggregate price shocks and financial instability: a historical analysis," Working Papers 2000-005, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. [Downloadable!]
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  3. James D. Hamilton & Oscar Jorda, 2000. "A Model for the Federal Funds Rate Target," NBER Working Papers 7847, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  4. Michael D. Bordo & Michael J. Dueker & David C. Wheelock, 2001. "Aggregate price shocks and financial stability: the United Kingdom 1796-1999," Working Papers 2001-018, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  5. Michael J. Dueker & Charles R. Nelson, 2003. "Business cycle detrending of macroeconomic data via a latent business cycle index," Working Papers 2002-025, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. [Downloadable!]
  6. Michael J. Dueker, 2003. "Dynamic forecasts of qualitative variables: a Qual VAR model of U.S. recessions," Working Papers 2001-012, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  7. Gabriele Fiorentini & Enrique Sentana & Neil Shephard, 2004. "Likelihood-based estimation of latent generalised ARCH structures," OFRC Working Papers Series 2004fe02, Oxford Financial Research Centre. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  8. Michael J. Dueker & Katrin Wesche, 2005. "Forecasting macro variables with a Qual VAR business cycle turning point index," Working Papers 2001-019, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. [Downloadable!]
  9. Michael Dueker & Katrin Wesche, 2001. "European business cycles: new indices and analysis of their synchronicity," Working Papers 1999-019, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  10. Michael J. Dueker, 2000. "Are prime rate changes asymmetric?," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, issue Sep, pages 33-40. [Downloadable!]
  11. George Monokroussos, 2006. "A Dynamic Tobit Model for the Open Market Desk's Daily Reaction Function," Computing in Economics and Finance 2006 390, Society for Computational Economics. [Downloadable!]
  12. Selva Demiralp & Òscar Jordà, 2001. "The Pavlovian response of term rates to Fed announcements," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2001-10, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.). [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  13. George Monokroussos, 2005. "Dynamic Limited Dependent Variable Modeling and US Monetary Policy," Computing in Economics and Finance 2005 460, Society for Computational Economics. [Downloadable!]
  14. Ying Liu, 2001. "Modelling Mortgage Rate Changes with a Smooth Transition Error-Correction Model," Working Papers 01-23, Bank of Canada. [Downloadable!]
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