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A Realistic Model for Official Interest Rates

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Author Info
J. de Dios Tena
Edoardo Otranto ()

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Abstract

This paper extends the VAR methodology to examine the consequences of monetary policy decisions by considering two types of nonlinearities in the determination of official interest rates: 1) the asymmetry related to the different nature of the discrete and infrequent positive and negative interest rate movements determined by central bankers; and 2) the convexity in the transmission of policy shocks induced by the nonnegativity constraint in interest rates. For the UK, we find evidence of both types of asymmetries. Moreover, the operational independence granted to the Bank of England involved drastic changes on the interpretation of the reaction function of the monetary authority and the consequences of monetary shocks. In the US, responses to unexpected interest rate shocks are far more symmetric. Results highlight the importance of considering all types of asymmetries when studying monetary transmission.

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Paper provided by Centre for North South Economic Research, University of Cagliari and Sassari, Sardinia in its series Working Paper CRENoS with number 200802.

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Date of creation: 2008
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Handle: RePEc:cns:cnscwp:200802

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Related research
Keywords: Monetary shocks; impulse-response functions; monetary policy;

Find related papers by JEL classification:
C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions
C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions
E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy

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References listed on IDEAS
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  2. Christina Atanasova, 2003. "Credit Market Imperfections and Business Cycle Dynamics: A Nonlinear Approach," Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, Berkeley Electronic Press, vol. 7(4). [Downloadable!]
  3. Juan de Dios Tena & Edoardo Otranto, 2006. "Modelling The Discrete And Infrequent Official Interest Rate Change In The Uk," Statistics and Econometrics Working Papers ws062007, Universidad Carlos III, Departamento de Estadística y Econometría. [Downloadable!]
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  7. Kiyotaki, Nobuhiro & Moore, John, 1997. "Credit Cycles," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 105(2), pages 211-48, April.
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  8. Giovannoni, Francesco & de Dios Tena, Juan, 2008. "Market concentration, macroeconomic uncertainty and monetary policy," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 52(6), pages 1097-1123, August. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  9. Filardo, Andrew J, 1994. "Business-Cycle Phases and Their Transitional Dynamics," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 12(3), pages 299-308, July.
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  13. Edoardo Otranto & Giampiero Gallo, 2002. "A Nonparametric Bayesian Approach To Detect The Number Of Regimes In Markov Switching Models," Econometric Reviews, Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 21(4), pages 477-496. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  14. Orphanides, Athanasios & Wilcox, David W, 2002. "The Opportunistic Approach to Disinflation," International Finance, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 5(1), pages 47-71, Spring. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  15. Hamilton, James D., 1990. "Analysis of time series subject to changes in regime," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 45(1-2), pages 39-70. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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