Advanced Search
MyIDEAS: Login

The Time-Varying Policy Neutral Rate in Real Time: A Predictor for Future Inflation?

Contents:

Author Info

  • Roman Horvath

Abstract

This paper examines the time-varying policy neutral interest rate in real time for the Czech Republic in 2001:1--2006:09, estimating various specifications of simple Taylor-type monetary policy rules. For this reason, we apply a structural time-varying parameter model with endogenous regressors. The results indicate that the policy neutral rate gradually decreased over the sample period to levels comparable to those in the euro area. Next, we propose a measure of the monetary policy stance based on the deviation of the actual interest rate from the estimated policy neutral rate and find it a useful predictor of the level as well as the change of the future inflation rate.

Download Info

If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
File URL: http://www.cnb.cz/en/research/research_publications/cnb_wp/download/cnbwp_2007_04.pdf
Download Restriction: no

Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Czech National Bank, Research Department in its series Working Papers with number 2007/4.

as in new window
Length:
Date of creation: Dec 2007
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:cnb:wpaper:2007/4

Contact details of provider:
Postal: Na Prikope 28, 115 03 Prague 1
Phone: 00420 2 2442 1111
Fax: 00420 2 2421 8522
Email:
Web page: http://www.cnb.cz/en/research/research_intro/
More information through EDIRC

Related research

Keywords: Policy neutral rate; Taylor rule; time-varying parameter model with endogenous regressors.;

Other versions of this item:

Find related papers by JEL classification:

This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

References

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
as in new window
  1. Ladislav Wintr & Paolo Guarda & Abdelaziz Rouabah, 2005. "Estimating the natural interest rate for the euro area and Luxembourg," BCL working papers 15, Central Bank of Luxembourg.
  2. Mesonnier, Jean-Stephane & Renne, Jean-Paul, 2007. "A time-varying "natural" rate of interest for the euro area," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 51(7), pages 1768-1784, October.
  3. Neiss, Katharine S. & Nelson, Edward, 2003. "The Real-Interest-Rate Gap As An Inflation Indicator," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 7(02), pages 239-262, April.
  4. Clarida, Richard & Galí, Jordi & Gertler, Mark, 1997. "Monetary Policy Rules in Practice: Some International Evidence," CEPR Discussion Papers 1750, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  5. Thomas Laubach & John C. Williams, 2003. "Measuring the Natural Rate of Interest," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 85(4), pages 1063-1070, November.
  6. Glenn D. Rudebusch, 2006. "Monetary Policy Inertia: Fact or Fiction?," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 2(4), December.
  7. Trehan, Bharat & Wu, Tao, 2007. "Time-varying equilibrium real rates and monetary policy analysis," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 31(5), pages 1584-1609, May.
  8. Canova, Fabio, 1998. "Detrending and business cycle facts: A user's guide," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 41(3), pages 533-540, May.
  9. Andrew T.. Levin & Volker Wieland & John Williams, 1999. "Robustness of Simple Monetary Policy Rules under Model Uncertainty," NBER Chapters, in: Monetary Policy Rules, pages 263-318 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  10. Clark, Todd E. & Kozicki, Sharon, 2005. "Estimating equilibrium real interest rates in real time," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 16(3), pages 395-413, December.
  11. Magdalena Morgese Borys & Roman Horvath, 2008. "The Effects of Monetary Policy in the Czech Republic: An Empirical Study," Working Papers 2008/4, Czech National Bank, Research Department.
  12. Kai Carstensen, 2006. "Estimating the ECB Policy Reaction Function," German Economic Review, Verein für Socialpolitik, vol. 7, pages 1-34, 02.
  13. L Christopher Plantier & Dean Scrimgeour, 2002. "Estimating a Taylor Rule for New Zealand with a time-varying neutral real rate," Reserve Bank of New Zealand Discussion Paper Series DP2002/06, Reserve Bank of New Zealand.
  14. Nicoletta Batini & Edward Nelson, 2000. "Optimal horizons for inflation targeting," Bank of England working papers 119, Bank of England.
  15. James H. Stock & Mark W. Watson, 1999. "Forecasting Inflation," NBER Working Papers 7023, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  16. Michał Brzoza-Brzezina, 2006. "The information content of the neutral rate of interest," The Economics of Transition, The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development, vol. 14(2), pages 391-412, 04.
  17. Antulio N. Bomfim, 2001. "Measuring equilibrium real interest rates: what can we learn from yields on indexed bonds?," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2001-53, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  18. Gnan, Ernest & Ritzberger-Grünwald, Doris & Cuaresma, Jesus Crespo, 2003. "Searching for the Natural Rate of Interest: a Euro-Area Perspective," Working Papers 84, Oesterreichische Nationalbank (Austrian Central Bank).
  19. Svensson, Lars E. O., 2000. "Open-economy inflation targeting," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 50(1), pages 155-183, February.
  20. Canova, Fabio, 1998. "Detrending and business cycle facts," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 41(3), pages 475-512, May.
  21. Choi, Woon Gyu, 1999. "Estimating the Discount Rate Policy Reaction Function of the Monetary Authority," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 14(4), pages 379-401, July-Aug..
  22. Jean-Paul Lam & Greg Tkacz, 2004. "Estimating Policy-Neutral Interest Rates for Canada Using a Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium Framework," Swiss Journal of Economics and Statistics (SJES), Swiss Society of Economics and Statistics (SSES), vol. 140(I), pages 89-126, March.
  23. Kwiatkowski, Denis & Phillips, Peter C. B. & Schmidt, Peter & Shin, Yongcheol, 1992. "Testing the null hypothesis of stationarity against the alternative of a unit root : How sure are we that economic time series have a unit root?," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 54(1-3), pages 159-178.
  24. Jeffery D. Amato, 2005. "The role of the natural rate of interest in monetary policy," BIS Working Papers 171, Bank for International Settlements.
  25. Gerdesmeier, Dieter & Roffia, Barbara, 2005. "The relevance of real-time data in estimating reaction functions for the euro area," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 16(3), pages 293-307, December.
  26. Richard Clarida & Jordi Galí & Mark Gertler, 1997. "Monetary policy rules and macroeconomic stability: Evidence and some theory," Economics Working Papers 350, Department of Economics and Business, Universitat Pompeu Fabra, revised May 1999.
  27. Halpern, László & MacDonald, Ronald & Égert, Balázs, 2005. "Equilibrium Exchange Rates in T ransition Economies: T aking Stock of the Issues," Working Papers 106, Oesterreichische Nationalbank (Austrian Central Bank).
  28. Ann-Charlotte Eliasson & Peter Isard & Douglas Laxton, 1999. "Simple Monetary Policy Rules Under Model Uncertainty," IMF Working Papers 99/75, International Monetary Fund.
  29. Gerdesmeier, Dieter & Roffia, Barbara, 2003. "Empirical estimates of reaction functions for the euro area," Working Paper Series 0206, European Central Bank.
  30. Frank Smets & Raf Wouters, 2003. "An Estimated Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium Model of the Euro Area," Journal of the European Economic Association, MIT Press, vol. 1(5), pages 1123-1175, 09.
  31. Jesús Cuaresma & Ernest Gnan & Doris Ritzberger-Gruenwald, 2004. "Searching for the natural rate of interest: a euro area perspective," Economic Change and Restructuring, Springer, vol. 31(2), pages 185-204, June.
  32. Kirby, Chris, 1997. "Measuring the Predictable Variation in Stock and Bond Returns," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 10(3), pages 579-630.
  33. Reynard, Samuel, 2007. "Maintaining low inflation: Money, interest rates, and policy stance," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 54(5), pages 1441-1471, July.
  34. Moser, Gabriel & Rumler, Fabio & Scharler, Johann, 2007. "Forecasting Austrian inflation," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 24(3), pages 470-480, May.
  35. Giammarioli, Nicola & Valla, Natacha, 2004. "The natural real interest rate and monetary policy: a review," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 26(5), pages 641-660, July.
  36. Taylor, John B., 1993. "Discretion versus policy rules in practice," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 39(1), pages 195-214, December.
  37. Herrmann, Heinz & Orphanides, Athanasios & Siklos, Pierre L., 2005. "Real-time data and monetary policy," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 16(3), pages 271-276, December.
  38. Kim, Chang-Jin, 2006. "Time-varying parameter models with endogenous regressors," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 91(1), pages 21-26, April.
  39. Viktor Kotlán & David Navrátil, 2003. "Inflation Targeting as a Stabilization Tool: Its Design and Performance in the Czech Republic," Czech Journal of Economics and Finance (Finance a uver), Charles University Prague, Faculty of Social Sciences, vol. 53(5-6), pages 220-242, May.
  40. Jaromir Benes & Tibor Hledik & Michael Kumhof & David Vavra, 2005. "An Economy in Transition and DSGE: What the Czech National Bank’s New Projection Model Needs," Working Papers 2005/12, Czech National Bank, Research Department.
  41. Marvin Goodfriend, 1990. "Interest rates and the conduct of monetary policy," Working Paper 90-06, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond.
  42. Morten O. Ravn & Harald Uhlig, 2002. "On adjusting the Hodrick-Prescott filter for the frequency of observations," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 84(2), pages 371-375.
  43. Jaromir Benes & Papa M'B. P. N'Diaye, 2004. "A Multivariate Filter for Measuring Potential Output and the NAIRU: Application to the Czech Republic," IMF Working Papers 04/45, International Monetary Fund.
  44. Wachtel, Paul & Korhonen, Iikka, 2004. "Observations on disinflation in transition economies," BOFIT Discussion Papers 5/2004, Bank of Finland, Institute for Economies in Transition.
  45. Joanne Archibald & Leni Hunter, 2001. "What is the neutral real interest rate, and how can we use it?," Reserve Bank of New Zealand Bulletin, Reserve Bank of New Zealand, vol. 64, September.
  46. Ritzberger-Grünwald, Doris & Gnan, Ernest, 2005. "The Natural Rate of Interest — Concepts and Appraisal for the Euro Area," Monetary Policy & the Economy, Oesterreichische Nationalbank (Austrian Central Bank), issue 4, pages 19–47.
  47. Jiri Podpiera, 2006. "The Role of Policy Rule Misspecification in Monetary Policy Inertia Debate," CERGE-EI Working Papers wp315, The Center for Economic Research and Graduate Education - Economic Institute, Prague.
  48. Giammarioli, Nicola & Valla, Natacha, 2003. "The natural real rate of interest in the euro area," Working Paper Series 0233, European Central Bank.
Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

Citations

Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
as in new window

Cited by:
  1. Jaromir Baxa & Roman Horvath & Borek Vasicek, 2010. "How Does Monetary Policy Change? Evidence on Inflation Targeting Countries," Working Papers 2010/02, Czech National Bank, Research Department.
  2. Magdalena Morgese Borys & Roman Horváth, 2007. "The Effects of Monetary Policy in the Czech Republic: An Empirical Study," Working Papers IES 2007/26, Charles University Prague, Faculty of Social Sciences, Institute of Economic Studies, revised Oct 2007.
  3. Ansgar Belke & Jens Klose, 2011. "Does the ECB Rely on a Taylor Rule During the Financial Crisis? Comparing Ex-post and Real Time Data with Real Time Forecasts," Economic Analysis and Policy (EAP), Queensland University of Technology (QUT), School of Economics and Finance, vol. 41(2), pages 147-171, September.
  4. Tomás Slacík, 2008. "(How) Will the Euro Affect Inflation in the Czech Republic? A contribution to the current debate," FIW Working Paper series 018, FIW.
  5. Ansgar Belke & Jens Klose, 2010. "(How) Do the ECB and the Fed React to Financial Market Uncertainty? – The Taylor Rule in Times of Crisis," Ruhr Economic Papers 0166, Rheinisch-Westfälisches Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung, Ruhr-Universität Bochum, Universität Dortmund, Universität Duisburg-Essen.
  6. M. Frömmel & G. Garabedian & F. Schobert, 2009. "Monetary Policy Rules in Central and Eastern European Countries: Does the Exchange Rate Matter?," Working Papers of Faculty of Economics and Business Administration, Ghent University, Belgium 09/611, Ghent University, Faculty of Economics and Business Administration.
  7. Juraj Antal & Michal Hlavacek & Roman Horvath, 2008. "Prediction Bias and Undershooting of the Inflation Target," Occasional Publications - Chapters in Edited Volumes, in: Katerina Smidkova (ed.), Evaluation of the Fulfilment of the CNB's Inflation Targets 1998-2007, chapter 5, pages 57-76 Czech National Bank, Research Department.
  8. Jan Babecky & Oxana Babetskaia-Kukharchuk & Kamil Galuscak & Dana Hajkova & Jaroslav Hermanek & Tomas Holub & Roman Horvath & Petr Jakubik & Lubos Komarek & Zlatuse Komarkova & Petr Kral & Filip Novot, 2008. "Analyses of the Czech Republic's Current Economic Alignment with the Euro Area 2008," Occasional Publications - Edited Volumes, Czech National Bank, Research Department, number as08 edited by Dana Hajkova.

Lists

This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.

Statistics

Access and download statistics

Corrections

When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:cnb:wpaper:2007/4. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Jan Babecky).

If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.