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La Tasa de Interés Natural en Colombia

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  • Juan José Echavarría

    ()

  • Enrique López Enciso

    ()

  • Martha Misas Arango

    ()

  • Juana Tellez Corredor

    ()

Abstract

En este artículo se estima para Colombia la tasa de interés natural (TIN) para el período 1982-2005, con base en las metodologías propuestas por Laubach y Williams (2001) y Mésonnier y Renne (2004). Un modelo neokeynesiano es la base de la estimación de la TIN de mediano plazo" como una variable no observada que cambia en el tiempo. Tal estimación se realiza mediante un filtro de Kalman que estima simultáneamente la TIN y la brecha del producto para la economía colombiana. Se sugiere que la política monetaria fue contraccionista en 1998 y 1999, y relativamente expansiva en los años recientes, aún cuando los resultados no son tan claros cuando se trabaja con los promedios móviles de la TIN. La brecha del producto ha sido positiva en 2003 y 2004, confirmando los resultados de otros trabajos en el área."

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by BANCO DE LA REPÚBLICA in its series BORRADORES DE ECONOMIA with number 003088.

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Length: 51
Date of creation: 01 Oct 2006
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:col:000094:003088

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Keywords: Tasa natural de interés; variables no observadas; producto potencial; filtro de Kalman;

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Cited by:
  1. Andrés González & Segio Ocampo & Julián Pérez & Diego Rodríguez, 2013. "Output Gap and Neutral Interest Measures of Colombia," Monetaria, Centro de Estudios Monetarios Latinoamericanos, Centro de Estudios Monetarios Latinoamericanos, vol. 0(2), pages 231-286, July-Dece.
  2. Christian Bustamante & Luis E. Rojas, 2012. "Constant-Interest-Rate Projections and Its Indicator Properties," BORRADORES DE ECONOMIA, BANCO DE LA REPÚBLICA 009383, BANCO DE LA REPÚBLICA.
  3. Ana María Iregui & Ligia Alba Melo B., 2009. "La transmisión de la política monetaria sobre el consumo en presencia de restricciones de liquidez," BORRADORES DE ECONOMIA, BANCO DE LA REPÚBLICA 005254, BANCO DE LA REPÚBLICA.
  4. Eliana González & Luis F. Melo & Luis E. Rojas & Brayan Rojas, . "Estimations of the natural rate of interest in Colombia," Borradores de Economia 626, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
  5. Remberto Rhenals & Juan Pablo Saldarriaga, 2008. "An Optimal Taylor Rule for Colombia, 1991-2006," Lecturas de Economía, Universidad de Antioquia, Departamento de Economía, Universidad de Antioquia, Departamento de Economía, issue 69, pages 9-39, Julio-Dic.
  6. repec:cml:incocp:1-05 is not listed on IDEAS

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