The role of the natural rate of interest in monetary policy
AbstractThis paper examines the role of the natural rate of interest in the conduct of monetary policy. The natural rate figures prominently in many theories of the business cycle and of inflation fluctuations, and therefore has the potential to play a key role in monetary policy given the current mandates of many central banks. However, the presence of financial imperfections and measurement uncertainty draw into question whether estimates of the natural rate can be reliable indicators of excess demand pressures. Natural rate-based theories may, nonetheless, provide useful guidance in the formulation of desirable monetary policies.
Download InfoIf you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by Bank for International Settlements in its series BIS Working Papers with number 171.
Length: 24 pages
Date of creation: Mar 2005
Date of revision:
real interest rate; interest rate rules; Wicksell; New Keynesian models; financial imperfections;
Find related papers by JEL classification:
- E21 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomics: Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Consumption; Saving; Wealth
- E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
- E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
- E43 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Interest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and Effects
- E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Andrés, Javier & López-Salido, J David & Nelson, Edward, 2004. "Money and the Natural Rate of Interest: Structural Estimates for the UK, the US and the euro area," CEPR Discussion Papers 4337, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Laidler,David, 1999.
"Fabricating the Keynesian Revolution,"
Cambridge University Press, number 9780521641739, November.
- Marc P. Giannoni & Michael Woodford, 2003.
"Optimal Interest-Rate Rules: I. General Theory,"
506439000000000384, UCLA Department of Economics.
- Neiss, Katharine S. & Nelson, Edward, 2003.
"The Real-Interest-Rate Gap As An Inflation Indicator,"
Cambridge University Press, vol. 7(02), pages 239-262, April.
- Neiss, Katharine & Nelson, Edward, 2001. "The Real Interest rate Gap as an Inflation Indicator," CEPR Discussion Papers 2848, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Katharine S. Neiss and Edward Nelson, 2001. "The Real Interest Rate Gap as an Inflation Indicator," Computing in Economics and Finance 2001 145, Society for Computational Economics.
- Katharine S. Neiss & Edward Nelson, 2001. "The real interest rate gap as an inflation indicator," Bank of England working papers 130, Bank of England.
- John B. Taylor, 1999. "Monetary Policy Rules," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number tayl99-1.
- Marc P. Giannoni, 2010. "Optimal Interest-Rate Rules in a Forward-Looking Model, and Inflation Stabilization versus Price-Level Stabilization," NBER Working Papers 15986, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Lemke, Wolfgang, 2008.
"An affine macro-finance term structure model for the euro area,"
The North American Journal of Economics and Finance,
Elsevier, vol. 19(1), pages 41-69, March.
- Lemke, Wolfgang, 2007. "An affine macro-finance term structure model for the euro area," Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies 2007,13, Deutsche Bundesbank, Research Centre.
- Rageh, Rania, 2010. "Interest rate rule for the conduct of monetary policy: analysis for Egypt (1997:2007)," MPRA Paper 26639, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- Guillermo J. Escudé (ed.), 2008. "ARGEM: A Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium Model for Argentina," BCRA Paper Series, Central Bank of Argentina, Economic Research Department, number 05, July.
- Ernest Gnan & Doris Ritzberger-Grünwald, 2005. "The Natural Rate of Interest — Concepts and Appraisal for the Euro Area," Monetary Policy & the Economy, Oesterreichische Nationalbank (Austrian Central Bank), issue 4, pages 29â47, January 2.
- Guillermo J. Escudé, 2007.
"Alternative Monetary Regimes in a DSGE Model of a Small Open Economy with Two Sectors and Sticky Prices and Wages,"
Central Bank of Argentina, Economic Research Department, vol. 1(49), pages 65-138, October -.
- Guillermo Escudé, 2006. "Alternative Monetary Regimes in a DSGE Model of a Small Open Economy with Two Sectors and Sticky Prices and Wages," BCRA Working Paper Series 200612, Central Bank of Argentina, Economic Research Department.
- Roman Horvath, 2007.
"The Time-Varying Policy Neutral Rate in Real Time: A Predictor for Future Inflation?,"
2007/4, Czech National Bank, Research Department.
- Horváth, Roman, 2009. "The time-varying policy neutral rate in real-time: A predictor for future inflation?," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 26(1), pages 71-81, January.
- Guillermo Escudé, 2007. "ARGEM: A DSGE Model with Banks and Monetary Policy Regimes with Two Feedback Rules, Calibrated for Argentina," BCRA Working Paper Series 200721, Central Bank of Argentina, Economic Research Department.
- Paulo Chananeco F. de Barcellos Neto & Marcelo Savino Portugal, 2006. "The Natural Rate Of Interest In Brazil Between 1999 And 2005," Anais do XXXIV Encontro Nacional de Economia [Proceedings of the 34th Brazilian Economics Meeting] 84, ANPEC - Associação Nacional dos Centros de Pósgraduação em Economia [Brazilian Association of Graduate Programs in Economics].
- Juan José Echavarría Soto & Enrique López Enciso & Martha Misas Arango & Juana Téllez Corredor & Juan Carlos Parra Alvarez, .
"La Tasa de Interés Natural en Colombia,"
Borradores de Economia
412, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Timo Laurmaa).
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.