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The role of the natural rate of interest in monetary policy

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  • Jeffery D. Amato

    (Goldman Sachs International)

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    Abstract

    This paper examines the role of the natural rate of interest in the conduct of monetary policy. The natural rate figures prominently in many theories of the business cycle and of inflation fluctuations, and therefore has the potential to play a key role in monetary policy given the current mandates of many central banks. However, the presence of financial imperfections and measurement uncertainty draw into question whether estimates of the natural rate can be reliable indicators of excess demand pressures. Natural rate-based theories may, nonetheless, provide useful guidance in the formulation of desirable monetary policies.

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    Bibliographic Info

    Paper provided by Bank for International Settlements in its series BIS Working Papers with number 171.

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    Length: 24 pages
    Date of creation: Mar 2005
    Date of revision:
    Handle: RePEc:bis:biswps:171

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    Related research

    Keywords: real interest rate; interest rate rules; Wicksell; New Keynesian models; financial imperfections;

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    References

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    1. Marc P. Giannoni & Michael Woodford, 2003. "Optimal Interest-Rate Rules: I. General Theory," Levine's Bibliography 506439000000000384, UCLA Department of Economics.
    2. N. Gregory Mankiw & Ricardo Reis, 2002. "Sticky Information Versus Sticky Prices: A Proposal To Replace The New Keynesian Phillips Curve," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 117(4), pages 1295-1328, November.
    3. Michael Woodford, 1999. "Optimal monetary policy inertia," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
    4. Marc P. Giannoni, 2010. "Optimal Interest-Rate Rules in a Forward-Looking Model, and Inflation Stabilization versus Price-Level Stabilization," NBER Working Papers 15986, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    5. Katharine S. Neiss & Edward Nelson, 2001. "The real interest rate gap as an inflation indicator," Bank of England working papers 130, Bank of England.
    6. Andrés, Javier & López-Salido, J David & Nelson, Edward, 2004. "Money and the Natural Rate of Interest: Structural Estimates for the UK, the US and the euro area," CEPR Discussion Papers 4337, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    7. Laidler,David, 1999. "Fabricating the Keynesian Revolution," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521645966, April.
    8. John B. Taylor, 1999. "Monetary Policy Rules," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number tayl99-1, June.
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    Cited by:
    1. Paulo Chananeco F. de Barcellos Neto & Marcelo Savino Portugal, 2006. "The Natural Rate Of Interest In Brazil Between 1999 And 2005," Anais do XXXIV Encontro Nacional de Economia [Proceedings of the 34th Brazilian Economics Meeting] 84, ANPEC - Associação Nacional dos Centros de Pósgraduação em Economia [Brazilian Association of Graduate Programs in Economics].
    2. Lemke, Wolfgang, 2008. "An affine macro-finance term structure model for the euro area," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 19(1), pages 41-69, March.
    3. Ernest Gnan & Doris Ritzberger-Grünwald, 2005. "The Natural Rate of Interest — Concepts and Appraisal for the Euro Area," Monetary Policy & the Economy, Oesterreichische Nationalbank (Austrian Central Bank), issue 4, pages 19–47.
    4. Roman Horvath, 2007. "The Time-Varying Policy Neutral Rate in Real Time: A Predictor for Future Inflation?," Working Papers 2007/4, Czech National Bank, Research Department.
    5. Juan José Echavarría & Enrique López Enciso & Martha Misas Arango & Juana Tellez Corredor, 2006. "La Tasa de Interés Natural en Colombia," BORRADORES DE ECONOMIA 003088, BANCO DE LA REPÚBLICA.
    6. Guillermo J. Escudé, 2007. "Alternative Monetary Regimes in a DSGE Model of a Small Open Economy with Two Sectors and Sticky Prices and Wages," Ensayos Económicos, Central Bank of Argentina, Economic Research Department, vol. 1(49), pages 65-138, October -.
    7. Guillermo J. Escudé (ed.), 2008. "ARGEM: A Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium Model for Argentina," BCRA Paper Series, Central Bank of Argentina, Economic Research Department, number 05, June.
    8. Rageh, Rania, 2010. "Interest rate rule for the conduct of monetary policy: analysis for Egypt (1997:2007)," MPRA Paper 26639, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    9. Olmos, Lorena & Sanso Frago, Marcos, 2014. "Natural Rate of Interest with Endogenous Growth, Financial Frictions and Trend Inflation," MPRA Paper 57212, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    10. Curdia, Vasco & Ferrero, Andrea & Ng, Ging Cee & Tambalotti, Andrea, 2014. "Has U.S. monetary policy tracked the efficient interest rate?," Working Paper Series 2014-12, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
    11. Guillermo Escudé, 2007. "ARGEM: A DSGE Model with Banks and Monetary Policy Regimes with Two Feedback Rules, Calibrated for Argentina," BCRA Working Paper Series 200721, Central Bank of Argentina, Economic Research Department.

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