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Estimating Policy-Neutral Interest Rates for Canada Using a Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium Framework

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  • Jean-Paul Lam
  • Greg Tkacz

Abstract

In an era where the primary policy instrument is the level of short-term interest rates, comparing the level of such a rate relative to some equilibrium value can be a useful guide for policy and a convenient method to measure the stance of monetary policy. The real interest rate gap, the difference between the real equilibrium rate and the rate set by the central bank, can thus serve as a leading indicator of future inflationary or deflationary pressures in the economy. This paper estimates equilibrium interest rates for Canada using a sticky-price dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) model. We follow the methodology of Neiss and Nelson (2003) closely and derive measures of the interest rate gap for Canada. Our results indicate that the interest rate gap can be a useful guide for policy and is a good an indicator of future output and inflation. Moreover, we find that our measures of the interest rate gap perform as well as the yield spread, a typical measure of policy stance which is assumed to contain significant information about future economic activity.

Suggested Citation

  • Jean-Paul Lam & Greg Tkacz, 2004. "Estimating Policy-Neutral Interest Rates for Canada Using a Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium Framework," Swiss Journal of Economics and Statistics (SJES), Swiss Society of Economics and Statistics (SSES), vol. 140(I), pages 89-126, March.
  • Handle: RePEc:ses:arsjes:2004-i-4
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    Cited by:

    1. Ilyas Siklar & Umit Yildiz & Sinan Cakan, 2016. "The Time - Varying Natural Rate of Interest and Its Fundamental Determinants: Time Series Evidence from Turkey," Business and Economic Research, Macrothink Institute, vol. 6(2), pages 390-400, December.
    2. Philip Arestis & Georgios E Chortareas, 2008. "Atheoretical and Theory-Based Approaches to the Natural Equilibrium Real Interest Rate," Eastern Economic Journal, Palgrave Macmillan;Eastern Economic Association, vol. 34(3), pages 390-405.
    3. Ian Christensen & Paul Corrigan & Caterina Mendicino & Shin‐Ichi Nishiyama, 2016. "Consumption, housing collateral and the Canadian business cycle," Canadian Journal of Economics/Revue canadienne d'économique, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 49(1), pages 207-236, February.
    4. Enrico Sergio Levrero, 2021. "Estimates of the Natural Rate of Interest and the Stance of Monetary Policies: A Critical Assessment," International Journal of Political Economy, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 50(1), pages 5-27, February.
    5. Cour-Thimann, Philippine & Pilegaard, Rasmus & Stracca, Livio, 2006. "The output gap and the real interest rate gap in the euro area, 1960-2003," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 28(7), pages 775-790, October.
    6. Paul Castillo & Carlos Montoro & Vicente Tuesta, 2006. "Measuring the Natural Interest Rate for the Peruvian Economy," Working Papers 2006-003, Banco Central de Reserva del Perú.
    7. Axel A. Weber & Wolfgang Lemke & Andreas Worms, 2008. "How useful is the concept of the natural real rate of interest for monetary policy?," Cambridge Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 32(1), pages 49-63, January.
    8. Juan José Echavarría & Enrique López Enciso & Martha Misas Arango & Juana Tellez Corredor, 2006. "La Tasa de Interés Natural en Colombia," Borradores de Economia 3088, Banco de la Republica.
    9. Rafael Cavalcanti De Araújo & Cleomar Gomes Da Silva, 2014. "The Neutral Interest Rate And The Stance Of Monetary Policy In Brazil," Anais do XLI Encontro Nacional de Economia [Proceedings of the 41st Brazilian Economics Meeting] 051, ANPEC - Associação Nacional dos Centros de Pós-Graduação em Economia [Brazilian Association of Graduate Programs in Economics].
    10. Berger, Tino & Kempa, Bernd, 2014. "Time-varying equilibrium rates in small open economies: Evidence for Canada," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 39(PA), pages 203-214.
    11. Alex Ilek & Guy Segal, 2022. "A Simple Theory-Based Estimate of the Real Natural Rate of Interest in Open Economies," Bank of Israel Working Papers 2022.06, Bank of Israel.
    12. Juan José Echavarría Soto & Enrique López Enciso & Martha Misas Arango & Juana Téllez Corredor & Juan Carlos Parra Álvarez, 2007. "La tasa de interés natural en Colombia," Revista ESPE - Ensayos sobre Política Económica, Banco de la Republica de Colombia, vol. 25(54), pages 44-89, June.
    13. Philip Arestis & Georgios Chortareas, 2007. "Natural equilibrium real interest rate estimates and monetary policy design," Journal of Post Keynesian Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 29(4), pages 621-643.
    14. Horváth, Roman, 2009. "The time-varying policy neutral rate in real-time: A predictor for future inflation?," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 26(1), pages 71-81, January.
    15. Rodrigo Fuentes S & Fabián Gredig U., 2008. "The Neutral Interest Rate: Estimates for Chile," Journal Economía Chilena (The Chilean Economy), Central Bank of Chile, vol. 11(2), pages 47-58, August.
    16. Mirta Noemi Sataka Bugarin & Marcelo Kfoury Muinhos & Jose Ricardo da Costa e Silva & Maria da Glória D. Silva Araújo, 2005. "The Effect of Adverse Oil Price Shocks on Monetary Policy and Output Using a Dynamic Small Open Economy General Equilibrium Model With Staggered Price for Brazil," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 348, Central Bank of Chile.
    17. Mr. Nicolas E Magud & Ms. Evridiki Tsounta, 2012. "To Cut or Not to Cut? That is the (Central Bank’s) Question In Search of the Neutral Interest Rate in Latin America," IMF Working Papers 2012/243, International Monetary Fund.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Interest rates;

    JEL classification:

    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • E37 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications

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