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The performance and robustness of simple monetary policy rules in models of the Canadian economy

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Author Info
Denise Côté
John Kuszczak
Jean-Paul Lam
Ying Liu
Pierre St-Amant

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Abstract

In this paper, we evaluate seven simple monetary policy rules in a wide range of models of the Canadian economy. Our results indicate that none of the seven simple policy rules we examined is robust to model uncertainty, in that no single rule performs well in all models. In fact, our results show that the performance of some of the simple rules, particularly rules with interest rate smoothing and rules with a high coefficient on the inflation gap, can substantially deviate from that of the optimal rule and can even be unstable in some models. Furthermore, we find that “open-economy” rules do not perform well in many models. We find that adding an exchange rate term to a simple policy rule often increases the value of the policy-maker's loss function. Although it is not robust, we find that a simple nominal Taylor-type rule that has a coefficient of 2 on the inflation gap and 0.5 on the output gap outperforms the other simple rules in a certain class of models. However, even in those models, the loss-function value of this simple rule can be substantially higher than that of the optimal or base-case rule.

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Publisher Info
Article provided by Canadian Economics Association in its journal Canadian Journal of Economics.

Volume (Year): 37 (2004)
Issue (Month): 4 (November)
Pages: 978-998
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Handle: RePEc:cje:issued:v:37:y:2004:i:4:p:978-998

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Find related papers by JEL classification:
E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:

  1. Robert L. Hetzel, 2000. "The Taylor rule : is it a useful guide to understanding monetary policy?," Economic Quarterly, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond, issue Spr, pages 1-33. [Downloadable!]
  2. Lawrence J. Christiano & Christopher J. Gust, 1999. "Taylor Rules in a Limited Participation Model," NBER Working Papers 7017, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  3. Stephen Murchison, . "NAOMI A New Quarterly Forecasting Model Part II: A Guide to Canadian NAOMI," Working Papers-Department of Finance Canada 2001-25, Department of Finance Canada. [Downloadable!]
  4. Woodford, Michael, 1999. "Optimal Monetary Policy Inertia," Manchester School, University of Manchester, vol. 67(0), pages 1-35, Supplemen. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  5. Leitemo, Kai & Söderström, Ulf, 2001. "Simple Monetary Policy Rules and Exchange Rate Uncertainty," Working Paper Series 122, Sveriges Riksbank (Central Bank of Sweden). [Downloadable!]
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  6. Jamie Armour & Ben Fung & Dinah Maclean, 2002. "Taylor Rules in the Quarterly Projection Model," Working Papers 02-1, Bank of Canada. [Downloadable!]
  7. Andrew Levin & Volker Wieland & John C. Williams, 1998. "Robustness of simple monetary policy rules under model uncertainty," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 1998-45, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.). [Downloadable!]
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  8. Christopher Sims, 2001. "A Review of Monetary Policy Rules," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 39(2), pages 562-566, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  9. Hamid Faruqee & Peter Isard & Douglas Laxton & Eswar Prasad & Bart Turtelboom, 1998. "Multimod Mark III: The Core Dynamic and Steady State Model," IMF Occasional Papers 164, International Monetary Fund. [Downloadable!]
  10. L.J. Christiano & C.J. Gust, 1999. "Taylor Rules in a Limited Participation Model," DNB Staff Reports (discontinued) 33, Netherlands Central Bank. [Downloadable!]
  11. Svensson, Lars E. O., 1999. "Inflation targeting as a monetary policy rule," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 43(3), pages 607-654, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  12. Goodfriend, Marvin, 1991. "Interest rates and the conduct of monetary policy," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 34(1), pages 7-30, January. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  13. Julio Rotemberg & Michael Woodford, 1997. "An Optimization-Based Econometric Framework for the Evaluation of Monetary Policy," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 1997, Volume 12, pages 297-361 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!]
  14. McCallum, Bennett T., 1999. "Issues in the design of monetary policy rules," Handbook of Macroeconomics, in: J. B. Taylor & M. Woodford (ed.), Handbook of Macroeconomics, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 23, pages 1483-1530 Elsevier. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Adalid, Ramon & Coenen, Gunter & McAdam, Peter & Siviero, Stefano, 2005. "The Performance and Robustness of Interest-Rate Rules in Models of the Euro Area," MPRA Paper 821, University Library of Munich, Germany. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  2. Jean-Paul Lam, 2004. "Estimating Policy-Neutral Interest Rates for Canada Using a Dynamic Stochastic General-Equilibrium Framework," Working Papers 04-9, Bank of Canada. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  3. Denise Côté & John Kuszczak & Jean-Paul Lam & Ying Liu & Pierre St-Amant, 2003. "A Comparison of Twelve Macroeconomic Models of the Canadian Economy," Technical Reports 94, Bank of Canada. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  4. David Longworth, 2003. "Implications of a changing economic structure for the strategy of monetary policy : commentary," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, pages 349-360. [Downloadable!]
  5. Solange Gouvea & Abhijit Sen Gupta, 2007. "Monetary Policy Design under Competing Models of Inflation Persistence," Working Papers Series 137, Central Bank of Brazil, Research Department. [Downloadable!]
  6. Sek, Siok Kun, 2008. "Interactions between monetary policy and exchange rate in inflation targeting emerging countries: the case of three East Asian countries," MPRA Paper 12034, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 09 Dec 2008. [Downloadable!]
  7. Nicholas Rowe & David Tulk, 2003. "A Simple Test of Simple Rules: Can They Improve How Monetary Policy is Implemented with Inflation Targets?," Working Papers 03-31, Bank of Canada. [Downloadable!]
  8. Michel Juillard & Florian Pelgrin, 2007. "Computing Optimal Policy in a Timeless-Perspective: An Application to a Small-Open Economy," Working Papers 07-32, Bank of Canada. [Downloadable!]
  9. Gabriel Srour, 2003. "Some Notes on Monetary Policy Rules with Uncertainty," Working Papers 03-16, Bank of Canada. [Downloadable!]
  10. Gino Cateau, 2006. "Guarding Against Large Policy Errors under Model Uncertainty," Working Papers 06-13, Bank of Canada. [Downloadable!]
  11. Keith Kuester & Volker Wieland, 2008. "Insurance policies for monetary policy in the euro area," Working Papers 08-29, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
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