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Policy Rules for Open Economies

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  • Laurence Ball

    (Johns Hopkins University)

Abstract

This paper examines the choice of a monetary policy rule in a simple macroeconomic model. In a closed economy, the optimal policy is a ‘Taylor rule’ in which the interest rate depends on output and inflation. In an open economy, the optimal rule changes in two ways. First, the policy instrument is a ‘Monetary Conditions Index’ – a weighted average of the interest rate and the exchange rate. Second, on the right side of the rule, inflation is replaced by ‘long-run inflation’, a variable that filters out the transitory effects of exchange-rate movements. The model also implies that pure inflation targeting is dangerous in an open economy, because it creates large fluctuations in exchange rates and output. Targeting long-run inflation avoids this problem and produces a close approximation to the optimal instrument rule.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Reserve Bank of Australia in its series RBA Research Discussion Papers with number rdp9806.

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Date of creation: Jul 1998
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Handle: RePEc:rba:rbardp:rdp9806

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Related research

Keywords: monetary policy rules; inflation targeting;

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References

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  1. Svensson, L-E-O, 1996. "Inflation Forecast Targeting : Implementaing and Monitoring Inflation Targets," Papers 615, Stockholm - International Economic Studies.
  2. Ball, Laurence, 1999. "Efficient Rules for Monetary Policy," International Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 2(1), pages 63-83, April.
  3. David Gruen & Geoffrey Shuetrim, 1994. "Internationalisation and the Macroeconomy," RBA Annual Conference Volume, in: Philip Lowe & Jacqueline Dwyer (ed.), International Intergration of the Australian Economy Reserve Bank of Australia.
  4. Hendry, David F., 1995. "Dynamic Econometrics," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780198283164, September.
  5. Mankiw, N. Gregory (ed.), 1997. "Monetary Policy," National Bureau of Economic Research Books, University of Chicago Press, edition 1, number 9780226503097, January.
  6. Duguay, Pierre, 1994. "Empirical evidence on the strength of the monetary transmission mechanism in Canada: An aggregate approach," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 33(1), pages 39-61, February.
  7. Gerlach, Stefan & Smets, Frank, 2000. "MCIs and monetary policy," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 44(9), pages 1677-1700, October.
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