Advanced Search
MyIDEAS: Login to save this article or follow this journal

The Cyclical Dynamics and Volatility of Australian Output and Employment

Contents:

Author Info

  • DAVID SHEPHERD
  • ROBERT DIXON

Abstract

In this paper, we examine the volatility of aggregate output and employment in Australia with the aid of a frequency filtering method. This analysis is compared with more traditional methods based on the examination of first differences in the logs of the raw data. We show that the application of univariate AR and bivariate VECM methods to the data results in a detrended series which is dominated by noise and gives break points which are not robust to alternative decomposition methods. When we apply a frequency filtered procedure we find that the detrended series is dominated by cyclical rather than noise variation. We find evidence of a sustained reduction in the cyclical volatility of both the gross domestic product and employment series in 1993-1994, not in 1984. We also find that there is a clear association between output volatility and employment volatility. Copyright © 2008 The Economic Society of Australia.

Download Info

If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
File URL: http://www.blackwell-synergy.com/servlet/useragent?func=synergy&synergyAction=showTOC&journalCode=ecor&volume=84&issue=264&year=2008&part=null
File Function: link to full text
Download Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers.

As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version under "Related research" (further below) or search for a different version of it.

Bibliographic Info

Article provided by The Economic Society of Australia in its journal Economic Record.

Volume (Year): 84 (2008)
Issue (Month): 264 (03)
Pages: 34-49

as in new window
Handle: RePEc:bla:ecorec:v:84:y:2008:i:264:p:34-49

Contact details of provider:
Postal: Central Council Administration, L.P.O. Box 2161, Hawthorn VIC 3122
Phone: 61 3 9497 4140
Fax: 61 3 9497 4140
Email:
Web page: http://www.blackwellpublishing.com/journal.asp?ref=0013-0249
More information through EDIRC

Order Information:
Web: http://www.blackwellpublishing.com/subs.asp?ref=0013-0249

Related research

Keywords:

Other versions of this item:

Find related papers by JEL classification:

References

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
as in new window
  1. Garey Ramey & Valerie A. Ramey, 1991. "Technology Commitment and the Cost of Economic Fluctuations," NBER Working Papers 3755, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  2. Svensson, Lars E O, 1999. "Price-Level Targeting versus Inflation Targeting: A Free Lunch?," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 31(3), pages 277-95, August.
  3. Taylor, Andrew & Shepherd, David & Duncan, Stephen, 2005. "The structure of the Australian growth process: A Bayesian model selection view of Markov switching," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 22(4), pages 628-645, July.
  4. Perron, P., 1990. "Further Evidence On Breaking Trend Functions In Macroeconomics Variables," Papers, Princeton, Department of Economics - Econometric Research Program 350, Princeton, Department of Economics - Econometric Research Program.
  5. Dungey, M. & Pitchford, J., 1998. "Prospects for Output and Employment Growth with Steady Inflation," CEPR Discussion Papers 387, Centre for Economic Policy Research, Research School of Economics, Australian National University.
  6. Martin, Philippe & Rogers, Carol Ann, 1995. "Stabilization Policy, Learning by Doing, and Economic Growth," CEPR Discussion Papers, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers 1130, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  7. Bill Russell & Warren J. Tease, 1988. "Employment, Output and Real Wages," RBA Research Discussion Papers, Reserve Bank of Australia rdp8806, Reserve Bank of Australia.
  8. Paul Cashin & Sam Ouliaris, 2004. "Key Features of Australian Business Cycles," Australian Economic Papers, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 43(1), pages 39-58, 03.
  9. Lars E. O. Svensson, 1996. "Inflation Forecast Targeting: Implementing and Monitoring Inflation Targets," NBER Working Papers 5797, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  10. Nicholas Di Venuto & Allan Layton, 2005. "Do The Phases Of The Business Cycle Die Of Old Age?," Australian Economic Papers, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 44(3), pages 290-305, 09.
  11. A. J. Phipps & J. R. Sheen, 1995. "Macroeconomic Policy and Employment Growth in Australia," Australian Economic Review, The University of Melbourne, Melbourne Institute of Applied Economic and Social Research, vol. 28(1), pages 86-104.
  12. Marianne Baxter & Robert G. King, 1999. "Measuring Business Cycles: Approximate Band-Pass Filters For Economic Time Series," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 81(4), pages 575-593, November.
  13. Ball, Laurence, 1999. "Efficient Rules for Monetary Policy," International Finance, Wiley Blackwell, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 2(1), pages 63-83, April.
  14. Svensson, Lars E O, 1998. "Inflation Targeting as a Monetary Policy Rule," CEPR Discussion Papers, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers 1998, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  15. Karim Abadir & Gabriel Talmain, 2001. "Aggregation, Persistence and Volatility in a Macromodel," Working Papers, Banco de Portugal, Economics and Research Department w200106, Banco de Portugal, Economics and Research Department.
  16. Leybourne, Stephen J. & C. Mills, Terence & Newbold, Paul, 1998. "Spurious rejections by Dickey-Fuller tests in the presence of a break under the null," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, Elsevier, vol. 87(1), pages 191-203, August.
  17. Stephen G Cecchetti & Alfonso Flores-Lagunes & Stefan Krause, 2005. "Assessing the Sources of Changes in the Volatility of Real Growth," RBA Annual Conference Volume, in: Christopher Kent & David Norman (ed.), The Changing Nature of the Business Cycle Reserve Bank of Australia.
  18. Guy Debelle, 1999. "Inflation Targeting and Output Stabilisation," RBA Research Discussion Papers, Reserve Bank of Australia rdp1999-08, Reserve Bank of Australia.
  19. Cochrane, John H, 1988. "How Big Is the Random Walk in GNP?," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, University of Chicago Press, vol. 96(5), pages 893-920, October.
  20. Hamilton, James D, 1989. "A New Approach to the Economic Analysis of Nonstationary Time Series and the Business Cycle," Econometrica, Econometric Society, Econometric Society, vol. 57(2), pages 357-84, March.
  21. Robert Dixon & G.C. Lim, 2004. "Underlying Inflation in Australia: Are the Existing Measures Satisfactory?," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 80(251), pages 373-386, December.
  22. Gomez, Victor, 2001. "The Use of Butterworth Filters for Trend and Cycle Estimation in Economic Time Series," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, American Statistical Association, vol. 19(3), pages 365-73, July.
  23. Stephen G. Cecchetti & Junhan Kim, 2003. "Inflation Targeting, Price-Path Targeting and Output Variability," NBER Working Papers 9672, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  24. Penelope A. Smith & Peter M. Summers, 2002. "Regime Switches in GDP Growth and Volatility: Some International Evidence and Implications for Modelling Business Cycles," Melbourne Institute Working Paper Series wp2002n21, Melbourne Institute of Applied Economic and Social Research, The University of Melbourne.
  25. Stephen G. Cecchetti & Michael Ehrmann, 1999. "Does Inflation Targeting Increase Output Volatility? An International Comparison of Policymakers' Preferences and Outcomes," NBER Working Papers 7426, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  26. Robert J. Hodrick & Edward Prescott, 1981. "Post-War U.S. Business Cycles: An Empirical Investigation," Discussion Papers, Northwestern University, Center for Mathematical Studies in Economics and Management Science 451, Northwestern University, Center for Mathematical Studies in Economics and Management Science.
  27. Robert Dixon & John Freebairn & G.C. Lim, 2005. "An Employment Equation for Australia," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 81(254), pages 204-214, 09.
  28. Andrew C. Harvey & Thomas M. Trimbur, 2003. "General Model-Based Filters for Extracting Cycles and Trends in Economic Time Series," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 85(2), pages 244-255, May.
  29. Martin, Philippe & Rogers, Carol Ann, 1995. "Long-Term Growth and Short-Term Economic Instability," CEPR Discussion Papers, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers 1281, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  30. Lewis, Philip E T & MacDonald, Garry, 2002. "The Elasticity of Demand for Labour in Australia," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 78(240), pages 18-30, March.
  31. GORDON de BROUWER & JAMES GILBERT, 2005. "Monetary Policy Reaction Functions in Australia," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 81(253), pages 124-134, 06.
Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

Citations

Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
as in new window

Cited by:
  1. Robert Dixon & David Shepherd, 2013. "Regional Dimensions of the Australian Business Cycle," Regional Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 47(2), pages 264-281, February.
  2. David Shepherd & Robert Dixon, 2010. "The not-so-great moderation? Evidence on changing volatility from Australian regions," Department of Economics - Working Papers Series, The University of Melbourne 1090, The University of Melbourne.
  3. Afþin Þahin & Aysýt Tansel & M. Hakan Berument, 2013. "Output-Employment Relationship Across Sectors: A Long- Versus Short-Run Perspective," Working Papers, Turkish Economic Association 2013/9, Turkish Economic Association.

Lists

This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.

Statistics

Access and download statistics

Corrections

When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:bla:ecorec:v:84:y:2008:i:264:p:34-49. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Wiley-Blackwell Digital Licensing) or (Christopher F. Baum).

If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.