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Monetary Policy Issues for the Eurosystem

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Author Info
Svensson, Lars () (Institute for International Economic Studies, Stockholm University)

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Abstract

The paper discusses the choice between inflation targeting and monetary targeting as a strategy for the Eurosystem, the actual strategy the Eurosystem announced in the fall of 1998, the framework of the policy decisions appropriate for achieving the goals of the Eurosystem, the role of the exchange rate management in the EMU, and the accountability and transparency of the Eurosystem. The choice between inflation targeting and monetary targeting is, in effect, a choice between high and low transparency. Inflation targeting and monetary targeting, in practice, imply similar policy decisions, but monetary targeting implies that policy decisions are explained in terms of money-growth developments that are not essential for policy. The Eurosystem has specified an operational inflation target, although in a somewhat ambiguous way. More importantly, its announced monetary strategy is deficient, since it proposes a prominent role for an essentially irrelevant money-growth indicator in analysis and communication, but will keep secret the inflation forecast that will, in practice, be the decisive input in policy decisions. Exchange rate policy is controlled by the Council of finance ministers in the EMU; this is a major inconsistency in the Maastricht Treaty and a possible threat to the independence of the Eurosystem. The European Parliament may have a crucial role in ensuring the accountability of the Eurosystem; the minimum transparency needed for effective outside monitoring and evaluation of the Eurosystem's policy decisions seem to require published inflation forecasts and, most likely, published minutes and voting records of the Governing Counsil.

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Publisher Info
Paper provided by Stockholm University, Institute for International Economic Studies in its series Seminar Papers with number 667.

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Length: 60 pages
Date of creation: 01 May 1999
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Handle: RePEc:hhs:iiessp:0667

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Postal: Institute for International Economic Studies, Stockholm University, S-106 91 Stockholm, Sweden
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Related research
Keywords: inflation targeting Monetary targeting ECB transparency

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Find related papers by JEL classification:
E42 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Monetary Sytsems; Standards; Regimes; Government and the Monetary System
E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies

References listed on IDEAS
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  1. Ramana Ramaswamy & Torsten Sløk, 1997. "The Real Effects of Monetary Policy in the European Union: What Are the Differences?," IMF Working Papers 97/160, International Monetary Fund.
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  4. Persson, Torsten & Tabellini, Guido, 1996. "Monetary Cohabitation in Europe," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 86(2), pages 111-16, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  5. Henderson, Dale W. & McKibbin, Warwick J., 1993. "A comparison of some basic monetary policy regimes for open economies: implications of different degrees of instrument adjustment and wage persistence," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 39, pages 221-317, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  6. Rudiger Dornbusch & Carlo A. Favero & Francesco Giavazzi, 1998. "The Immediate Challenges for the European Central Bank," NBER Working Papers 6369, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  11. Glenn D. Rudebusch & Lars E. O. Svensson, 1998. "Policy rules for inflation targeting," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue Mar.
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  12. Svensson, L-E-O, 1997. "Inflation Targeting : Some Extensions," Papers 625, Stockholm - International Economic Studies.
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  13. Maurice Obstfeld., 1998. "EMU: Ready, or Not?," Center for International and Development Economics Research (CIDER) Working Papers C98-101, University of California at Berkeley.
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  14. Alberto Cabrero & Juan L. Escrivá & Emilio Muñoz & Juan Peñalosa, 1998. "The Controllability of a Monetary Aggregate in EMU," Banco de España Working Papers 9817, Banco de España.
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    Other versions:
  16. Cukierman, Alex & Meltzer, Allan H, 1986. "A Theory of Ambiguity, Credibility, and Inflation under Discretion and Asymmetric Information," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 54(5), pages 1099-1128, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  17. Haan, J. de & Amtenbrink, F. & Eijffinger, S.C.W., 1998. "Accountability of central banks : aspects and quantification," Discussion Paper 54, Tilburg University, Center for Economic Research. [Downloadable!]
  18. Taylor, John B., 1993. "Discretion versus policy rules in practice," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 39, pages 195-214, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  19. Stefan Gerlach, 1994. "German unification and the demand for German M3," BIS Working Papers 21, Bank for International Settlements. [Downloadable!]
  20. Svensson, Lars E. O., 1997. "Inflation forecast targeting: Implementing and monitoring inflation targets," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 41(6), pages 1111-1146, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  21. Gerlach, Stefan & Smets, Frank, 1999. "Output gaps and monetary policy in the EMU area1," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 43(4-6), pages 801-812, April. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  22. Jürgen Wolters & Timo Teräsvirta & Helmut Lütkepohl, 1998. "Modeling The Demand For M3 In The Unified Germany," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 80(3), pages 399-409, August. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  23. Svensson, Lars E. O., 1999. "Inflation targeting as a monetary policy rule," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 43(3), pages 607-654, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  24. Laubach, T. & Posen, A.S., 1997. "Disciplined Discretion: Monetary Targeting in Germany and Switzerland," Princeton Essays in International Economics 206, International Economics Section, Departement of Economics Princeton University,.
  25. Estrella, Arturo & Mishkin, Frederic S., 1997. "Is there a role for monetary aggregates in the conduct of monetary policy?," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 40(2), pages 279-304, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  26. Athanasios Orphanides & Volker Wieland, 1998. "Price stability and monetary policy effectiveness when nominal interest rates are bounded at zero," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 1998-35, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.). [Downloadable!]
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  27. Clarida, Richard & Gali, Jordi & Gertler, Mark, 1998. "Monetary policy rules in practice Some international evidence," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 42(6), pages 1033-1067, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  28. von Hagen, Jürgen, 1998. "Money Growth Targeting," Seminar Papers 643, Stockholm University, Institute for International Economic Studies. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  29. John B. Taylor, 1998. "An Historical Analysis of Monetary Policy Rules," NBER Working Papers 6768, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  30. Taylor, J.B., 1998. "The Robustness and Efficiency of Monetary Policy Rules as Guidelines for Interest Rate Setting by European Central Bank," Papers 649, Stockholm - International Economic Studies.
  31. Rudi Dornbusch & Carlo Favero & Francesco Giavazzi, 1998. "Immediate challenges for the European Central Bank," Economic Policy, CEPR, CES, MSH, vol. 13(26), pages 15-64, 04. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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