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Modeling The Demand For M3 In The Unified Germany

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Author Info
Jürgen Wolters
Timo Teräsvirta
Helmut Lütkepohl

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Abstract

An error correction model for the demand for real M3 money is constructed for the period of 1976-1994 with real GNP, the GNP deflator, as well as a short-term and a long-term interest rate as explanatory variables. Quarterly, seasonally unadjusted data are used in estimating the model. It is found that there is a clear structural break due to the German unification in 1990. On the other hand, once this structural break is accounted for, a stable relation is found which resists a series of specification tests. These include a number of recent tests of parameter constancy and linearity. Our specification is at variance with findings reported by some other researchers, notably the Deutsche Bundesbank. © 2000 by the President and Fellows of Harvard College and the Massachusetts Institute of Technolog

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Article provided by MIT Press in its journal The Review of Economics and Statistics.

Volume (Year): 80 (1998)
Issue (Month): 3 (August)
Pages: 399-409
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Handle: RePEc:tpr:restat:v:80:y:1998:i:3:p:399-409

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  1. Engle, Robert F & Granger, Clive W J, 1987. "Co-integration and Error Correction: Representation, Estimation, and Testing," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 55(2), pages 251-76, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  2. Hylleberg, S. & Engle, R. F. & Granger, C. W. J. & Yoo, B. S., 1990. "Seasonal integration and cointegration," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 44(1-2), pages 215-238. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  3. Jansen, Eilev S. & Teräsvirta, Timo, 1995. "Testing Parameter Constancy and super Exogeneity in Econometric Equations," Working Paper Series in Economics and Finance 53, Stockholm School of Economics.
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  4. Campos, Julia & Ericsson, Neil R. & Hendry, David F., 1996. "Cointegration tests in the presence of structural breaks," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 70(1), pages 187-220, January. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  5. Lin, Chien-Fu Jeff & Terasvirta, Timo, 1994. "Testing the constancy of regression parameters against continuous structural change," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 62(2), pages 211-228, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  1. Ivo Arnold, 2003. "A Regional Analysis of German Money Demand Around Reunification with Implications for EMU," Empirica, Springer, vol. 30(1), pages 63-80, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  2. Christian Dreger & Jürgen Wolters, 2008. "M3 Money Demand and Excess Liquidity in the Euro Area," Working Paper / FINESS 7.1a, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research. [Downloadable!]
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  3. Julian Ramajo & Miguel A. Marquez, 1998. "Structural change in regional economies: A varying coefficients econometric modeling approach," ERSA conference papers ersa98p189, European Regional Science Association. [Downloadable!]
  4. K. Hubrich, . "System estimation of the German money demand - a long-run analysis," Sonderforschungsbereich 373 1996-77, Humboldt Universitaet Berlin.
  5. K.S.E.M. Hubrich & P.J.G. Vlaar, 2000. "Germany and the euro area: differences in the transmission process of monetary policy," WO Research Memoranda (discontinued) 613, Netherlands Central Bank, Research Department. [Downloadable!]
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  6. D. Nautz, . "Die empirische Relevanz des Monetären Modells für die Erklärung des DM/Dollar Wechselkurses," Sonderforschungsbereich 373 1999-63, Humboldt Universitaet Berlin.
  7. Imke Brüggemann & Dieter Nautz, 1997. "Money growth volatility and the demand for money in Germany: Friedman’s volatility hypothesis revisited," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer, vol. 133(3), pages 523-537, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  8. Cizek, P. & Haerdle, W. & Spokoiny, V., 2007. "Adaptive Pointwise Estimation in Time-Inhomogeneous Time-Series Models," Discussion Paper 2007-35, Tilburg University, Center for Economic Research. [Downloadable!]
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  9. Volker Wieland, 1999. "Monetary policy, parameter uncertainty and optimal learning," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 1999-48, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.). [Downloadable!]
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  10. Christian Dreger & Jürgen Wolters, 2008. "Money Velocity and Asset Prices in the Euro Area," Working Paper / FINESS 7.1b, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research. [Downloadable!]
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  11. Guglielmo Maria Caporale & Luis A. Gil-Alana, 2005. "Fractional Cointegration And Aggregate Money Demand Functions," Public Policy Discussion Papers 05-01, Economics and Finance Section, School of Social Sciences, Brunel University. [Downloadable!]
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  12. Heimonen, Kari, 2001. "Substituting a Substitute Currency – The Case of Estonia," BOFIT Discussion Papers 11/2001, Bank of Finland, Institute for Economies in Transition. [Downloadable!]
  13. H. Lütkepohl & J. Wolters, . "The Transmission of German Monetary Policy in the Pre-Euro Period," Sonderforschungsbereich 373 2001-87, Humboldt Universitaet Berlin.
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  14. H. Herwartz & H. E. Reimers, . "Seasonal Cointegration Analysis for German M3 Money Demand," Sonderforschungsbereich 373 1996-78, Humboldt Universitaet Berlin.
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  15. Svensson, Lars, 1999. "Monetary Policy Issues for the Eurosystem," Seminar Papers 667, Stockholm University, Institute for International Economic Studies. [Downloadable!]
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  16. C. Müller, . "On the Effects of Aggregating Cointegrated Variables over Time," Sonderforschungsbereich 373 2002-9, Humboldt Universitaet Berlin.
  17. Roberto Golinelli & Sergio Pastorello, 2002. "Modelling the demand for M3 in the Euro area," European Journal of Finance, Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 8(4), pages 371-401, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  18. Caner, Mehmet & Kilian, Lutz, 2000. "Size Distortions Of Tests Of The Null Hypothesis Of Stationarity: Evidence And Implications For The PPP Debate," CEPR Discussion Papers 2425, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  19. O. Holtemöller, . "Money and Banks: Some Theory and Empirical Evidence for Germany," Sonderforschungsbereich 373 2002-17, Humboldt Universitaet Berlin.
  20. Christian Dreger & Jürgen Wolters, 2006. "Investigating M3 Money Demand in the Euro Area: New Evidence Based on Standard Models," Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin 561, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research. [Downloadable!]
  21. Gerberding, Christina & Seitz, Franz & Worms, Andreas, 2007. "Money-based interest rate rules: lessons from German data," Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies 2007,06, Deutsche Bundesbank, Research Centre. [Downloadable!]
  22. Philip Arestis & Malcolm Sawyer, 2001. "Will the Euro Bring Economic Crisis to Europe?," Macroeconomics 0103003, EconWPA. [Downloadable!]
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