Modeling The Demand For M3 In The Unified Germany
AbstractAn error correction model for the demand for real M3 money is constructed for the period of 1976-1994 with real GNP, the GNP deflator, as well as a short-term and a long-term interest rate as explanatory variables. Quarterly, seasonally unadjusted data are used in estimating the model. It is found that there is a clear structural break due to the German unification in 1990. On the other hand, once this structural break is accounted for, a stable relation is found which resists a series of specification tests. These include a number of recent tests of parameter constancy and linearity. Our specification is at variance with findings reported by some other researchers, notably the Deutsche Bundesbank. © 1998 by the President and Fellows of Harvard College and the Massachusetts Institute of Technology
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Bibliographic InfoArticle provided by MIT Press in its journal The Review of Economics and Statistics.
Volume (Year): 80 (1998)
Issue (Month): 3 (August)
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Other versions of this item:
- J. Wolters & T. Teräsvirta & H. Lütkepohl, 1996. "Modelling the Demand for M3 in the Unified Germany," SFB 373 Discussion Papers 1996,24, Humboldt University of Berlin, Interdisciplinary Research Project 373: Quantification and Simulation of Economic Processes.
- Wolters, Jürgen & Teräsvirta, Timo & Lütkepohl, Helmut, 1996. "Modelling the Demand for M3 in the unified Germany," Working Paper Series in Economics and Finance 113, Stockholm School of Economics.
- C52 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Evaluation, Validation, and Selection
- E41 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Demand for Money
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