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Modelling the Demand for M3 in the unified Germany

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Author Info
Wolters, Jürgen (Department of Statistics and Econometrics)
Teräsvirta, Timo () (Department of Economic Statistics)
Lütkepohl, Helmut (Department of Statistics and Econometrics)

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Abstract

An error correction model for the demand for real M3 money is constructed for the period 1976-1994 with real GNP, the GNP deflator as well as a short-term and a long-term interest rate as explanatory variables. Quarterly, seasonally unadjusted data are used in estimating the model. It is found that there is a clear structural break due to the German unification in 1990. On the other hand, once this structural break is accounted for, a stable relation is found which passes a series of misspecification tests. In particular, a number of recent tests of parameter constancy and linearity are applied. Our specification is at variance with findings reported by some other researchers, notably the Deutsche Bundesbank.

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Publisher Info
Paper provided by Stockholm School of Economics in its series Working Paper Series in Economics and Finance with number 113.

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Length: 19 pages
Date of creation: Apr 1996
Date of revision:
Publication status: Published in Review of Economics and Statistics , 1998, pages 399-409.
Handle: RePEc:hhs:hastef:0113

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Postal: The Economic Research Institute, Stockholm School of Economics, P.O. Box 6501, 113 83 Stockholm, Sweden
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Related research
Keywords: Econometric modelling; nonlinearity; parameter constancy; smooth transition regression; structural break;

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Find related papers by JEL classification:
C52 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Evaluation and Testing
E41 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Demand for Money

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:

  1. Engle, Robert F & Granger, Clive W J, 1987. "Co-integration and Error Correction: Representation, Estimation, and Testing," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 55(2), pages 251-76, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  2. Hylleberg, S. & Engle, R. F. & Granger, C. W. J. & Yoo, B. S., 1990. "Seasonal integration and cointegration," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 44(1-2), pages 215-238. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  3. Campos, Julia & Ericsson, Neil R. & Hendry, David F., 1996. "Cointegration tests in the presence of structural breaks," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 70(1), pages 187-220, January. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  4. Jansen, Eilev S. & Teräsvirta, Timo, 1995. "Testing Parameter Constancy and super Exogeneity in Econometric Equations," Working Paper Series in Economics and Finance 53, Stockholm School of Economics.
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  5. Lin, Chien-Fu Jeff & Terasvirta, Timo, 1994. "Testing the constancy of regression parameters against continuous structural change," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 62(2), pages 211-228, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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Full references

Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Ivo Arnold, 2003. "A Regional Analysis of German Money Demand Around Reunification with Implications for EMU," Empirica, Springer, vol. 30(1), pages 63-80, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  2. Volker Wieland, 1999. "Monetary policy, parameter uncertainty and optimal learning," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 1999-48, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.). [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  3. Guglielmo Maria Caporale & Luis A. Gil-Alana, 2005. "Fractional Cointegration And Aggregate Money Demand Functions," Economics and Finance Discussion Papers 05-01, Economics and Finance Section, School of Social Sciences, Brunel University. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  4. Christian Dreger & Jürgen Wolters, 2008. "M3 Money Demand and Excess Liquidity in the Euro Area," Working Paper / FINESS 7.1a, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  5. D. Nautz, . "Die empirische Relevanz des Monetären Modells für die Erklärung des DM/Dollar Wechselkurses," Sonderforschungsbereich 373 1999-63, Humboldt Universitaet Berlin.
  6. Christian Dreger & Jürgen Wolters, 2008. "Money Velocity and Asset Prices in the Euro Area," Working Paper / FINESS 7.1b, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  7. Kirstin Hubrich & Peter J. G. Vlaar, 2000. "Germany and the Euro Area: Differences in the Transmission Process of Monetary Policy," Econometric Society World Congress 2000 Contributed Papers 1802, Econometric Society, revised 08 Nov 2000. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  8. Julian Ramajo & Miguel A. Marquez, 1998. "Structural change in regional economies: A varying coefficients econometric modeling approach," ERSA conference papers ersa98p189, European Regional Science Association. [Downloadable!]
  9. Caner, Mehmet & Kilian, Lutz, 2000. "Size Distortions Of Tests Of The Null Hypothesis Of Stationarity: Evidence And Implications For The PPP Debate," CEPR Discussion Papers 2425, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  10. Heimonen, Kari, 2001. "Substituting a Substitute Currency – The Case of Estonia," BOFIT Discussion Papers 11/2001, Bank of Finland, Institute for Economies in Transition. [Downloadable!]
  11. H. Lütkepohl & J. Wolters, . "The Transmission of German Monetary Policy in the Pre-Euro Period," Sonderforschungsbereich 373 2001-87, Humboldt Universitaet Berlin.
    Other versions:
  12. O. Holtemöller, . "Money and Banks: Some Theory and Empirical Evidence for Germany," Sonderforschungsbereich 373 2002-17, Humboldt Universitaet Berlin.
  13. Christian Dreger & Jürgen Wolters, 2006. "Investigating M3 Money Demand in the Euro Area: New Evidence Based on Standard Models," Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin 561, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research. [Downloadable!]
  14. H. Herwartz & H. E. Reimers, . "Seasonal Cointegration Analysis for German M3 Money Demand," Sonderforschungsbereich 373 1996-78, Humboldt Universitaet Berlin.
    Other versions:
  15. Imke Brüggemann & Dieter Nautz, 1997. "Money growth volatility and the demand for money in Germany: Friedman’s volatility hypothesis revisited," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer, vol. 133(3), pages 523-537, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  16. Gerberding, Christina & Seitz, Franz & Worms, Andreas, 2007. "Money-based interest rate rules: lessons from German data," Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies 2007,06, Deutsche Bundesbank, Research Centre. [Downloadable!]
  17. Svensson, Lars, 1999. "Monetary Policy Issues for the Eurosystem," Seminar Papers 667, Stockholm University, Institute for International Economic Studies. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  18. Cizek, P. & Haerdle, W. & Spokoiny, V., 2007. "Adaptive Pointwise Estimation in Time-Inhomogeneous Time-Series Models," Discussion Paper 2007-35, Tilburg University, Center for Economic Research. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  19. C. Müller, . "On the Effects of Aggregating Cointegrated Variables over Time," Sonderforschungsbereich 373 2002-9, Humboldt Universitaet Berlin.
  20. Philip Arestis & Malcolm Sawyer, 2001. "Will the Euro Bring Economic Crisis to Europe?," Macroeconomics 0103003, EconWPA. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  21. K. Hubrich, . "System estimation of the German money demand - a long-run analysis," Sonderforschungsbereich 373 1996-77, Humboldt Universitaet Berlin.
  22. Roberto Golinelli & Sergio Pastorello, 2002. "Modelling the demand for M3 in the Euro area," European Journal of Finance, Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 8(4), pages 371-401, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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