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Modelling the Demand for M3 in the unified Germany Author info | Abstract | Publisher info | Download info | Related research | Statistics Wolters, Jürgen (Department of Statistics and Econometrics)
Teräsvirta, Timo () (Department of Economic Statistics)
Lütkepohl, Helmut (Department of Statistics and Econometrics)
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An error correction model for the demand for real M3 money is constructed for the period 1976-1994 with real GNP, the GNP deflator as well as a short-term and a long-term interest rate as explanatory variables. Quarterly, seasonally unadjusted data are used in estimating the model. It is found that there is a clear structural break due to the German unification in 1990. On the other hand, once this structural break is accounted for, a stable relation is found which passes a series of misspecification tests. In particular, a number of recent tests of parameter constancy and linearity are applied. Our specification is at variance with findings reported by some other researchers, notably the Deutsche Bundesbank.
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Paper provided by Stockholm School of Economics in its series Working Paper Series in Economics and Finance with number
113.
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Length: 19 pages
Date of creation: Apr 1996Date of revision:
Publication status: Published in Review of Economics and Statistics , 1998, pages 399-409.Handle: RePEc:hhs:hastef:0113Contact details of provider: Postal: The Economic Research Institute, Stockholm School of Economics, P.O. Box 6501, 113 83 Stockholm, Sweden Phone: +46-(0)8-736 90 00 Fax: +46-(0)8-31 01 57 Email: Web page: http://www.hhs.se/ More information through EDIRC
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Keywords: Econometric modelling ; nonlinearity ; parameter constancy ; smooth transition regression ; structural break ; Other versions of this item:
Find related papers by JEL classification: C52 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Evaluation and Testing E41 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Demand for Money
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