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The Immediate Challenges for the European Central Bank

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  • Rudiger Dornbusch
  • Carlo A. Favero
  • Francesco Giavazzi

Abstract

This paper discusses a number of issues that the newly constituted Board of the ECB will face early on. We show how conducting a European monetary policy is very different from living under the protective umbrella of the Bundesbank. We discuss voting on the ECB Board and argue that the ability to communicate to the public will be a critical factor for the success of the new institution. We also ask how a single monetary policy -- a common change in the interest rate controlled by the ECB -- is transmitted to the economy of the member countries. We show that the monetary process differs significantly inside EMU: initially disinflation episode could thus fall very unequally on a few member countries because they have a combination of financial structure that spreads a monetary contraction widely structure that is relatively inflexible. This process, moreover, is sure to evolve of the financial industry restructuring that is already underway and will be accentuated by the common money. Furthermore, as the Lucas principle suggests, the wage-price process itself will adapt to the changing focus of European monetary policy.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc in its series NBER Working Papers with number 6369.

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Date of creation: Jan 1998
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Publication status: published as Economic Policy, Vol. 28 (April 1998).
Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:6369

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  1. Richard Clarida & Mark Gertler, 1996. "How the Bundesbank Conducts Monetary Policy," NBER Working Papers 5581, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  2. Kari H. Eika & Neil R. Ericsson & Ragnar Nymoen, 1996. "Hazards in implementing a monetary conditions index," International Finance Discussion Papers 568, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  3. Bernanke, Ben S. & Mihov, Ilian, 1997. "What does the Bundesbank target?," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 41(6), pages 1025-1053, June.
  4. Cukierman, Alex & Lippi, Francesco, 1999. "Central bank independence, centralization of wage bargaining, inflation and unemployment:: Theory and some evidence," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 43(7), pages 1395-1434, June.
  5. Clarida, Richard & Gali, Jordi & Gertler, Mark, 1998. "Monetary policy rules in practice Some international evidence," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 42(6), pages 1033-1067, June.
  6. Gerald A. Carlino & Robert H. DeFina, 1996. "Does monetary policy have differential regional effects?," Business Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia, issue Mar, pages 17-27.
  7. Duguay, Pierre, 1994. "Empirical evidence on the strength of the monetary transmission mechanism in Canada: An aggregate approach," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 33(1), pages 39-61, February.
  8. Fernando Barran & Virginie Coudert & Benoît Mojon, 1997. "La transmission des politiques monétaires dans les pays européens," Revue Française d'Économie, Programme National Persée, vol. 12(2), pages 133-158.
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