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Does the P* Model Provide Any Rationale for Monetary Targeting?

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Lars E.O. Svensson

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Abstract

The so-called P* model is frequently used or referred to in discussions of monetary targeting. This gives the impression that the P* model might provide some rationale for monetary targeting or for the monetary reference value used by the Eurosystem. The P* model implies that inflation is determined by the level of and changes in the 'money gap' (the deviation of current real balances from their long-run equilibrium level), and hence that the real money gap is an important indicator for future inflation. Nevertheless, the P* model does not seem to provide any rationale for either a Bundesbank-style money-growth target or a Eurosystem-style money-growth indicator.

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Paper provided by National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc in its series NBER Working Papers with number 7178.

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Date of creation: Jun 2000
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Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:7178

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Find related papers by JEL classification:
E42 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Monetary Sytsems; Standards; Regimes; Government and the Monetary System
E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy

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  1. Rudebusch, Glenn D. & Svensson, Lars E. O., 1999. "Eurosystem Monetary Targeting: Lessons from U.S. Data," Working Paper Series 92, Sveriges Riksbank (Central Bank of Sweden). [Downloadable!]
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  2. von Hagen, J, 1995. "Inflation and Monetary Targeting in Germany," Papers 03, American Institute for Contemporary German Studies-.
  3. Kareken, John H & Muench, Thomas & Wallace, Neil, 1973. "Optimal Open Market Strategy: The Use of Information Variables," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 63(1), pages 156-72, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  4. Christina D. Romer & David H. Romer, 1997. "Reducing Inflation: Motivation and Strategy," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number rome97-1.
  5. Hallman, Jeffrey J & Porter, Richard D & Small, David H, 1991. "Is the Price Level Tied to the M2 Monetary Aggregate in the Long Run?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 81(4), pages 841-58, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  6. Lars E.O. Svensson, 1999. "Monetary policy issues for the Eurosystem," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
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  7. Richard Clarida & Jordi Gali & Mark Gertler, 1997. "Monetary Policy Rules in Practice: Some International Evidence," NBER Working Papers 6254, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  8. Browne, F.X. & Fagan, G. & Henry, J., 1997. "Money Demand in EU Countries : A Survey," Papers 7, European Monetary Institute.
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  9. Richard H. Clarida & Mark Gertler, 1997. "How the Bundesbank Conducts Monetary Policy," NBER Chapters, in: Reducing Inflation: Motivation and Strategy, pages 363-412 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!]
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  10. Karl-Heinz Tödter & Hans-Eggert Reimers, 1994. "P-Star as a link between money and prices in Germany," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer, vol. 130(2), pages 273-289, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  11. Laubach, T. & Posen, A.S., 1997. "Disciplined Discretion: Monetary Targeting in Germany and Switzerland," Princeton Essays in International Economics 206, International Economics Section, Departement of Economics Princeton University,.
  12. Bernanke, Ben S. & Mihov, Ilian, 1997. "What does the Bundesbank target?," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 41(6), pages 1025-1053, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Christophe Kamps & Christian Pierdzioch, 2002. "Geldpolitik und vorausschauende Taylor-Regeln — Theorie und Empirie am Beispiel der Deutschen Bundesbank," Kiel Working Papers 1089, Kiel Institute for the World Economy. [Downloadable!]
  2. Persson, Mats, 2000. "Five Fallacies in the Social Security Debate," Seminar Papers 686, Stockholm University, Institute for International Economic Studies. [Downloadable!]
  3. Tobias Broer & Rodrigo Caputo, 2004. "Money As An Inflation Indicator In Chile: Does P* Still Work?," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 293, Central Bank of Chile. [Downloadable!]
  4. Javier Andrés & J. David López-Salido & Edward Nelson, 2007. "Money and the natural rate of interest: structural estimates for the United States and the Euro area," Working Papers 2007-005, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  5. Kishor, N. Kundan, 2009. "Modeling Inflation in India: The Role of Money," MPRA Paper 16098, University Library of Munich, Germany. [Downloadable!]
  6. Tödter, Karl-Heinz, 2002. "Monetary indicators and policy rules in the P-star model," Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies 2002,18, Deutsche Bundesbank, Research Centre. [Downloadable!]
  7. Jan Gottschalk & Stéphanie Stolz, 2001. "The Link of the Monetary Indicator to Future Inflation in the Euro Area — A Simulation Experiment," Kiel Working Papers 1057, Kiel Institute for the World Economy. [Downloadable!]
  8. Gerlach, Stefan & Svensson, Lars E O, 2002. "Money and Inflation in the Euro-Area: A Case for Monetary Indicators?," CEPR Discussion Papers 3392, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  9. Joachim Scheide & Mathias Trabandt, 2000. "Predicting Inflation in Euroland — The Pstar Approach," Kiel Working Papers 1019, Kiel Institute for the World Economy. [Downloadable!]
  10. Carlo A. Favero & Riccardo Rovelli, . "Modeling and identifying central banks' preferences," Working Papers 148, IGIER (Innocenzo Gasparini Institute for Economic Research), Bocconi University. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  11. Aurelijus Dabušinskas, 2005. "Money and Prices in Estonia," Bank of Estonia Working Papers 2005-07, Bank of Estonia, revised 10 Nov 2005. [Downloadable!]
  12. Martha Misas & Enrique López & Luis Fernando Melo, . "La Inflación desde una Perspectiva Monetaria: Un Modelo P* para Colombia," Borradores de Economia 133, Banco de la Republica de Colombia. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  13. Lindbeck, Assar, 2000. "Pensions and Contemporary Socioeconomic Change," Seminar Papers 685, Stockholm University, Institute for International Economic Studies. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  14. Svensson, Lars, 2000. "The first Year of the Eurosystem: Inflation Targeting or Not?," Seminar Papers 681, Stockholm University, Institute for International Economic Studies. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
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