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Price Stability vs. Low Inflation in Germany: An Analysis of Costs and Benefits

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Author Info
Karl-Heinz Todter
Gerhard Ziebarth
Abstract

We empirically investigate the costs and benefits of going from low inflation to price stability in the case of Germany. Recent empirical evidence on the sacrifice ratio suggests that the break-even point at which the permanent benefits of reducing the trend rate of inflation by 2 percentage points exceeds the temporary costs in terms of output losses is below 0.3% of GDP. We analyze the welfare implications of the interactions even of moderate rates of inflation with the distorting effects of the German tax system. Four areas of economic activity are considered: intertemporal allocation of consumption, demand for owner-occupied housing, money demand, and government debt service. We estimate the direct welfare effects of reducing the rate of inflation as well as the indirect tax revenue effects. We find that reducing the inflation rate by 2 percentage points permanently increases welfare by 1.4% of GDP. Finally, the optimal rate of disinflation is considered.

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Paper provided by National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc in its series NBER Working Papers with number 6170.

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Date of creation: Sep 1997
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Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:6170

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Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
  1. Dean Croushore, 1992. "What are the costs of disinflation?," Business Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia, issue May, pages 3-16. [Downloadable!]
  2. Beaudry, Paul & van Wincoop, Eric, 1996. "The Intertemporal Elasticity of Substitution: An Exploration Using a US Panel of State Data," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 63(251), pages 495-512, August. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  3. V.V. Chari & Lawrence J. Christiano & Patrick J. Kehoe, 1991. "Optimal fiscal and monetary policy: some recent results," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, pages 519-546.
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  4. James Tobin, 1977. "How Dead is Keynes?," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 458, Cowles Foundation, Yale University. [Downloadable!]
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  5. Attanasio, Orazio P & Weber, Guglielmo, 1995. "On the Aggregation of Euler Equations for Consumption in Simple Overlapping-Generations Models," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 62(248), pages 565-76, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  6. George A. Akerlof & William R. Dickens & George L. Perry, 1996. "The Macroeconomics of Low Inflation," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 27(1996-1), pages 1-76. [Downloadable!]
  7. Darby, Michael R, 1975. "The Financial and Tax Effects of Monetary Policy on Interest Rates," Economic Inquiry, Oxford University Press, vol. 13(2), pages 266-76, June.
  8. Daniel L. Thornton, 1996. "The costs and benefits of price stability: an assessment of Howitt's rule," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, issue Mar, pages 23-38. [Downloadable!]
  9. Feldstein, Martin S & Green, Jerry R & Sheshinski, Eytan, 1978. "Inflation and Taxes in a Growing Economy with Debt and Equity Finance," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 86(2), pages S53-70, April. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  10. Jeffrey J. Hallman & Richard D. Porter & David H. Small, 1989. "M2 per unit of potential GNP as an anchor for the price level," Staff Studies 157, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  11. Robert E. Lucas, Jr., 1994. "On the welfare cost of inflation," Working Papers in Applied Economic Theory 94-07, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
  12. Martin Feldstein, 1997. "The Costs and Benefits of Going from Low Inflation to Price Stability," NBER Working Papers 5469, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  13. Bernheim, B Douglas, 1991. "Optimal Fiscal and Monetary Policy: Some Recent Results," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 23(3), pages 540-42, August. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Leo Bonato, 1998. "The benefits of price stability: some estimates for New Zealand," Reserve Bank of New Zealand Bulletin, Reserve Bank of New Zealand, vol. 61, September. [Downloadable!]
  2. Willem H. Buiter & Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou, 1999. "Liquidity Traps: How to Avoid Them and How to Escape Them," NBER Working Papers 7245, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  3. Lars E.O. Svensson, 1998. "Inflation Targeting as a Monetary Policy Rule," NBER Working Papers 6790, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  4. Gerlach, Stefan & Svensson, Lars E O, 2002. "Money and Inflation in the Euro-Area: A Case for Monetary Indicators?," CEPR Discussion Papers 3392, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  5. Niels Thygesen, . "Evolving Ambitions in Europe’s Monetary Unification," EPRU Working Paper Series 99-04, Economic Policy Research Unit (EPRU), University of Copenhagen. Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
  6. António Portugal Duarte, 2005. "The Portuguese Disinflation Process: Analysis of Some Costs and Benefits," International Finance 0504005, EconWPA. [Downloadable!]
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