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The Portuguese Disinflation Process: Analysis of Some Costs and Benefits

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  • António Portugal Duarte

    (Faculty of Economicas & GEMF, University of Coimbra)

Abstract

This study aims to analyse the Portuguese economic policy of disinflation through a nominal stabilization policy of the Portuguese escudo. We study the pegging of the Portuguese escudo (PTE) to the Deutsch mark (DM) knowing the reputation of the Bundesbank for its anti- inflationary record and the role played by the Deutsch mark in the stability processes of foreign exchange and European price levels. The study was based on the attainment of co-integrating relations using Johansen’s methodology, the construction of a Near-VAR model and the establishment of a simulation analysis. The acceptance of German monetary policy and the pegging of the escudo to the Deutsch mark allowed the Portuguese economy to achieve its primary goal of price stability. However, despite the credibility and stability gains obtained, the adoption of a disinflation policy led to a real appreciation of the escudo. This study tries to clarify the influence that an appreciation of the real exchange rate can have on GDP and price levels. It cannot be denied that Portugal has made great progress in its European integration, successfully integrating into the group of EMU member-states. However we can point to a decrease in Portuguese competitiveness as the price paid for the disinflation process. This reflects itself in lower wages, which in turn limit output growth. We find that it is of primary importance to realise both the benefits of disinflation, and the costs of the policies in terms of output.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by EconWPA in its series International Finance with number 0504005.

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Length: 20 pages
Date of creation: 13 Apr 2005
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:wpa:wuwpif:0504005

Note: Type of Document - pdf; pages: 20
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Web page: http://128.118.178.162

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Keywords: Monetary Policy; European Union; Disinflation; Co-Integration; Near-VAR and Simulation;

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References

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  1. Christopher J. Neely & Christopher J. Waller, 1997. "A Benefit-Cost Analysis Of Disinflation," Contemporary Economic Policy, Western Economic Association International, vol. 15(1), pages 50-64, 01.
  2. Laurence Ball, 1994. "What Determines the Sacrifice Ratio?," NBER Chapters, in: Monetary Policy, pages 155-193 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  3. Ball, Laurence, 1991. "The Genesis of Inflation and the Costs of Disinflation," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 23(3), pages 439-52, August.
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  9. Laurence Ball, 1990. "Credible Disinflation with Staggered Price Setting," NBER Working Papers 3555, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  10. Buiter, Willem H & Grafe, Clemens, 2001. "No Pain, No Gain? The Simple Analytics of Efficient Disinflation in Open Economies," CEPR Discussion Papers 3038, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
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  14. Daniel L. Thornton, 1996. "The costs and benefits of price stability: an assessment of Howitt's rule," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, issue Mar, pages 23-38.
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Cited by:
  1. António Portugal Duarte & João Sousa Andrade & Adelaide Duarte, 2009. "Exchange Rate Mean Reversion within a Target Zone: Evidence from a Country on the Periphery of the ERM," GEMF Working Papers 2009-15, GEMF - Faculdade de Economia, Universidade de Coimbra.
  2. Pedro Bação & António Portugal Duarte, 2010. "Accession to the European Union, Interest Rates and Indebtedness: Greece and Portugal," GEMF Working Papers 2011-04, GEMF - Faculdade de Economia, Universidade de Coimbra.
  3. António Portugal Duarte & João Sousa Andrade & Adelaide Duarte, 2012. "Testing for Nonlinear Adjustment in the Portuguese Target Zone: Is there a Honeymoon Effect?," GEMF Working Papers 2013-03, GEMF - Faculdade de Economia, Universidade de Coimbra.

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