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Explaining Cointegration Analysis: Part 1 Author info | Abstract | Publisher info | Download info | Related research | Statistics David F. Hendry
Katarina Juselius
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'Classical' econometric theory assumes that observed data come from a stationary process, where means and variances are constant over time. Graphs of economic time series, and the historical record of economic forecasting, reveal the invalidity of such an assumption. Consequently, we discuss the importance of stationarity for empirical modeling and inference; describe the effects of incorrectly assuming stationarity; explain the basic concepts of non-stationarity; note some sources of non-stationarity; formulate a class of non-stationary processes (autoregressions with unit roots) that seem empirically relevant for analyzing economic time series; and show when an analysis can be transformed by means of differencing and cointegrating combinations so stationarity becomes a reasonable assumption. We then describe how to test for unit roots and cointegration. Monte Carlo simulations and empirical examples illustrate the analysis.
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Article provided by International Association for Energy Economics in its journal The Energy Journal .
Volume (Year): 21 (2000)
Issue (Month): 1 ()
Pages: 1-42
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Find related papers by JEL classification: F0 - International Economics - - General
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Hendry, David F., 2000.
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[Downloadable!] (restricted)
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Juselius, Katarina, 1998.
"A Structured VAR for Denmark under Changing Monetary Regimes ,"
Journal of Business & Economic Statistics ,
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" Inference in Cointegrating Models: UK M1 Revisited ,"
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Søren Johansen & Rocco Mosconi & Bent Nielsen, 2000.
"Cointegration analysis in the presence of structural breaks in the deterministic trend ,"
Econometrics Journal ,
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Other versions: Gonzalo, Jesus, 1994.
"Five alternative methods of estimating long-run equilibrium relationships ,"
Journal of Econometrics ,
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[Downloadable!] (restricted)
Ericsson, Neil R & Hendry, David F & Mizon, Grayham E, 1998.
"Exogeneity, Cointegration, and Economic Policy Analysis ,"
Journal of Business & Economic Statistics ,
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"The Econometric Analysis of Economic Policy ,"
Economics Working Papers
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Other versions:
Banerjee, Anindya & Hendry, David F & Mizon, Grayham E, 1996.
"The Econometric Analysis of Economic Policy ,"
Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics ,
Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 58(4), pages 573-600, November.
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"Testing structural hypotheses in a multivariate cointegration analysis of the PPP and the UIP for UK ,"
Journal of Econometrics ,
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[Downloadable!] (restricted)
David Hendry, 1995.
"On the interactions of unit roots and exogeneity ,"
Economics Papers
7., Economics Group, Nuffield College, University of Oxford.
[Downloadable!]
Other versions: Johansen, Soren, 1992.
"Testing weak exogeneity and the order of cointegration in UK money demand data ,"
Journal of Policy Modeling ,
Elsevier, vol. 14(3), pages 313-334, June.
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Other versions: Johansen, Soren & Juselius, Katarina, 1990.
"Maximum Likelihood Estimation and Inference on Cointegration--With Applications to the Demand for Money ,"
Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics ,
Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 52(2), pages 169-210, May.
Søren Johansen, 1994.
"The role of the constant and linear terms in cointegration analysis of nonstationary variables ,"
Econometric Reviews ,
Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 13(2), pages 205-229.
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Juselius, Katarina, 1995.
"Do purchasing power parity and uncovered interest rate parity hold in the long run? An example of likelihood inference in a multivariate time-series model ,"
Journal of Econometrics ,
Elsevier, vol. 69(1), pages 211-240, September.
[Downloadable!] (restricted)
Nielsen, Bent & Rahbek, Anders, 2000.
" Similarity Issues in Cointegration Analysis ,"
Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics ,
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[Downloadable!] (restricted)
Clements, M.P. & Hendry, D.F., 1992.
"Forecasting in Cointegrated Systems ,"
Economics Series Working Papers
99139, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
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"Identification of the long-run and the short-run structure an application to the ISLM model ,"
Journal of Econometrics ,
Elsevier, vol. 63(1), pages 7-36, July.
[Downloadable!] (restricted)
Other versions: Michael P. Clements & David F. Hendry, 2001.
"Forecasting Non-Stationary Economic Time Series ,"
MIT Press Books ,
The MIT Press,
edition 1, volume 1, number 0262531895, December.
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