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Would "Cold Turkey" Work in Turkey?

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  • Oya Celasun

    (International Monetary Fund)

  • R. Gaston Gelos

    (International Monetary Fund)

  • Alessandro Prati

    (International Monetary Fund)

Abstract

When inflation rates in a country are persistently high, observers often believe that the inflation process has become "inertial," posing an obstacle to disinflation. Using an innovative approach, we assess the empirical validity of this argument for the case of Turkey. We find that the current degree of inflation persistence in Turkey is lower than in Brazil and Uruguay prior to their successful stabilization programs. More significantly, expectations of future inflation are more important than past inflation in shaping the inflation process, providing little evidence of "backward-looking" behavior. Using survey data, we find that inflation expectations, in turn, largely depend on the evolution of fiscal variables.

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Palgrave Macmillan in its journal Staff Papers - International Monetary Fund.

Volume (Year): 51 (2004)
Issue (Month): 3 (November)
Pages: 493-509

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Handle: RePEc:pal:imfstp:v:51:y:2004:i:3:p:493-509

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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Ardic, Oya Pinar & Yuzereroglu, Uygar, 2007. "How Do Individuals Choose Banks? An Application to Household Level Data from Turkey," MPRA Paper 6096, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  2. Oya Pınar Ardıc & Faruk Selcuk, 2006. "The dynamics of a newly floating exchange rate: the Turkish case," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 38(8), pages 931-941.
  3. Murat Tasdemir & Abdullah Yalama, 2010. "Inter-Regional Volatility Spillovers Between Emerging Capital Markets: Evidence From Turkey And Brazil," Working Papers 2010/8, Turkish Economic Association, revised Jan 2010.
  4. Kaya, Huseyin, 2013. "The yield curve and the macroeconomy: Evidence from Turkey," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 32(C), pages 100-107.
  5. Kaya, Huseyin, 2013. "Forecasting the yield curve and the role of macroeconomic information in Turkey," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 33(C), pages 1-7.
  6. Gaston Gelos & Alessandro Prati & Oya Celasun, 2004. "Obstacles to Disinflation," IMF Working Papers 04/111, International Monetary Fund.
  7. Ardic, Oya Pinar, 2006. "Output, the Real Exchange Rate, and the Crises in Turkey," MPRA Paper 6099, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  8. Aykut Kibritcioglu, 2004. "A Short Review of the Long History of Turkish High Inflation," Macroeconomics 0404003, EconWPA.
  9. Jérôme Creel & Günes Kamber, 2004. "Debt, Deficits and Inflation on the Road to the EU: the case of Turkey," Sciences Po publications info:hdl:2441/3003, Sciences Po.
  10. Levent, Korap, 2006. "An empirical analysis of Turkish inflation (1988-2004): some non-monetarist estimations," MPRA Paper 19630, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  11. Faruk Selçuk, 2005. "The Policy Challenge with Floating Exchange Rates: Turkey’s Recent Experience," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 16(3), pages 295-312, July.

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