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Causes of Inflation in Turkey: A Literature Survey with Special Reference to Theories of Inflation

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Author Info
Aykut Kibritcioglu (Ankara University and University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign)

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Abstract

Turkey has experienced high and persistent inflation for more than twenty years. This chapter attempts firstly to survey the extremely broad literature on theories of inflation, in order to be able to classify, understand and discuss the dynamics of inflation more carefully. In this chapter, it is mainly argued that inflation may be interpreted as a net result of sophisticated and continuous interactions of demand-side (or monetary) shocks, supply-side (or real) shocks, price-adjustment (or inertial) factors and political processes (or institutional factors). The second aim of the chapter is to compare the existing empirical studies on Turkish inflation, by considering their sample period, data frequency, empirical methods, modeled macroeconomic variables and main results. Most of the studies reviewed here seem to have focused primarily on demand-side determinants (e. g., monetary growth and budget deficits), and partially on some supply-side factors (e. g., nominal exchange rates and oil prices). On the other hand, the components, degree and effects of inflation inertia need to be investigated in more detail. In the future, the modeling attempts of the inflationary dynamics in Turkey would profit from the so-called “new political macroeconomics” because the role of the political process and institutions is not a weak explanatory factor of Turkish inflation that is easily ignored.

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Paper provided by EconWPA in its series Macroeconomics with number 0107002.

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Length: 46 pages
Date of creation: 25 Jul 2001
Date of revision: 10 Oct 2001
Handle: RePEc:wpa:wuwpma:0107002

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Keywords: Inflation theories causes of inflation political economy of inflation Turkey

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Find related papers by JEL classification:
B22 - Schools of Economic Thought and Methodology - - History of Economic Thought since 1925 - - - Macroeconomics
E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation

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  1. McCallum, Bennett T., 1990. "Inflation: Theory and evidence," Handbook of Monetary Economics, in: B. M. Friedman & F. H. Hahn (ed.), Handbook of Monetary Economics, edition 1, volume 2, chapter 18, pages 963-1012 Elsevier. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  2. Guillermo A. Calvo & Carlos A. Vegh, 1999. "Inflation Stabilization and BOP Crises in Developing Countries," NBER Working Papers 6925, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  3. Togan, Subidey, 1987. "The Influence of Money and the Rate of Interest on the Rate of Inflation in a Financially Repressed Economy: The Case of Turkey," Applied Economics, Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 19(12), pages 1585-1601, December.
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  5. Gordon, Robert J, 1977. "The Theory of Domestic Inflation," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 67(1), pages 128-34, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  6. Woodford, Michael, 2001. "Fiscal Requirements for Price Stability," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 33(3), pages 669-728, August.
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  7. Laurence Ball, 1993. "The Dynamics of High Inflation," NBER Working Papers 4578, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  23. Alexander W. Hoffmaister & Pierre-Richard Agénor, 1997. "Money, Wages and Inflation in Middle-Income Developing Countries," IMF Working Papers 97/174, International Monetary Fund.
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(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Ozturk, Ilhan, 2002. "Velocity Effect On Inflationary Growth of Turkey: Evidence From Co-integration Analysis and Granger's Causality Test," MPRA Paper 259, University Library of Munich, Germany. [Downloadable!]
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