Inflation, Output, and Stabilization in a High Inflation Economy: Turkey, 1980-2000
AbstractThis paper surveys and examines the sources of fluctuations in inflation and output in Turkey. Using a dynamic open economy aggregate supply - aggregate demand model with imperfect capital mobility and structural vector-autoregressions, the authors consider real oil price, supply, balance of payments, real demand, and monetary disturbances. Empirical results indicate that inflation is driven by monetary and real demand disturbances while output is mainly driven by aggregate supply disturbances. The historical decomposition shows that a substantial portion of inflation is aggregate demand-driven core inflation. A credible disinflation program accompanied by structural reform is likely to stabilize the economy with little output costs.
Download InfoIf you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by EconWPA in its series Macroeconomics with number 0107003.
Date of creation: 25 Jul 2001
Date of revision: 26 Jul 2001
Contact details of provider:
Web page: http://220.127.116.11
Stabilization Policy - Turkey; Inflation- Causes and Effects; Inflation Theories; Turkey- Macroeconomic Developments; Macroeconomics - Theory of Aggregate Supply and Aggregate Demand; Time Series Models;
Find related papers by JEL classification:
- E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
- E23 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Production
- F41 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Open Economy Macroeconomics
- C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:
You can help add them by filling out this form.
CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
- Mariano Roberto S & Gultekin Bulent N & Ozmucur Suleyman & Shabbir Tayyeb & Alper C. Emre, 2004. "Prediction of Currency Crises: Case of Turkey," Review of Middle East Economics and Finance, De Gruyter, vol. 2(2), pages 1-21, August.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (EconWPA).
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.