Inflation, Output Growth, and Stabilization in Turkey, 1980-2002
AbstractUsing a dynamic aggregate supply and aggregate demand model with imperfect capital mobility and structural VARs, we decompose inflation and output movements into those attributable to terms of trade, supply, balance-of-payments, fiscal, and monetary shocks. Empirical results show that terms of trade shocks have a significant negative effect on inflation in the short run. In the long run, monetary, and balance of payments shocks dominate while budget deficits play a limited role in the inflationary process. Demand shocks have limited effects on output movements; output is mostly driven by terms of trade and supply shocks. The results highlight the importance of a credible disinflation program and structural reform that restrain discretionary aggregate demand policies.
Download InfoIf you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by EconWPA in its series Macroeconomics with number 0306001.
Length: 33 pages
Date of creation: 04 Jun 2003
Date of revision:
Note: Type of Document - Acrobat Reader/PDF; prepared on PC; to print on any printer; pages: 33 ; figures: included
Contact details of provider:
Web page: http://22.214.171.124
Causes and effects of inflation; inflation theories; stabilization policy; theory of aggregate supply and aggregate demand; time series models; Turkish economy;
Other versions of this item:
- Dibooglu, Sel & Kibritcioglu, Aykut, 2004. "Inflation, output growth, and stabilization in Turkey, 1980-2002," Journal of Economics and Business, Elsevier, vol. 56(1), pages 43-61.
- E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
- E23 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomics: Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Production
- F41 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Open Economy Macroeconomics
- C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models
This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:
- NEP-ALL-2003-06-16 (All new papers)
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Danny Quah & Shaun Vahey, 1995.
"Measuring Core Inflation,"
Bank of England working papers
31, Bank of England.
- H. Sonmez Atesoglu & Donald Dutkowsky, 1995. "Money, output and prices in Turkey," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 2(2), pages 38-41.
- Laura Papi & G. C. Lim, 1997. "An Econometric Analysis of the Determinants of Inflation in Turkey," IMF Working Papers 97/170, International Monetary Fund.
- Marco Rossi & Daniel Leigh, 2002. "Exchange Rate Pass-Through in Turkey," IMF Working Papers 02/204, International Monetary Fund.
- C. Emre Alper & Murat Ucer, 1998. "Some Observations on Turkish Inflation: A ''Random Walk'' Down the Past Decade," Working Papers 1998/02, Bogazici University, Department of Economics.
- Richard Clarida & Jordi Gali & Mark Gertler, 1999.
"The Science of Monetary Policy: A New Keynesian Perspective,"
NBER Working Papers
7147, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Mark Gertler & Jordi Gali & Richard Clarida, 1999. "The Science of Monetary Policy: A New Keynesian Perspective," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 37(4), pages 1661-1707, December.
- Clarida, Richard & Galí, Jordi & Gertler, Mark, 1999. "The Science of Monetary Policy: A New Keynesian Perspective," CEPR Discussion Papers 2139, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Clarida, R. & Gali, J. & Gertler, M., 1999. "The Science of Monetary Policy: A New Keynesian Perspective," Working Papers 99-13, C.V. Starr Center for Applied Economics, New York University.
- Richard Clarida & Jordi Galí & Mark Gertler, 1997. "The science of monetary policy: A new Keynesian perspective," Economics Working Papers 356, Department of Economics and Business, Universitat Pompeu Fabra, revised Apr 1999.
- Aykut Kibritcioglu & Bengi Kibritcioglu, 2003. "Ham Petrol ve Akaryakit Urunu Fiyat Artislarinin Turkiye'deki Enflasyonist Etkileri (= Inflationary Effects of Increases in Prices of Improted Crude-Oil and Oil-Products in Turkey)," Macroeconomics 0306003, EconWPA.
- Gert Wehinger, 2000. "Causes of Inflation in Europe, the United States and Japan: Some Lessons for Maintaining Price Stability in the EMU from a Structural VAR Approach," Empirica, Springer, vol. 27(1), pages 83-107, March.
- Onis, Ziya & Ozmucur, Suleyman, 1990. "Exchange rates, inflation and money supply in Turkey : Testing the vicious circle hypothesis," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 32(1), pages 133-154, January.
- Christopher F. Baum & John Barkoulas & Mustafa Caglayan, 1996.
"Persistence in International Inflation Rates,"
Boston College Working Papers in Economics
333., Boston College Department of Economics.
- Metin, Kivilcim, 1995. "An Integrated Analysis of Turkish Inflation," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 57(4), pages 513-31, November.
- Pierre-Richard AgÃ©nor & Alexander W. Hoffmaister, 1997. "Money, Wages and Inflation in Middle-Income Developing Countries," IMF Working Papers 97/174, International Monetary Fund.
- Erol, Turan & Van Wijnbergen, Sweder, 1997. "Real exchange rate targeting and inflation in Turkey: An empirical analysis with policy credibility," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 25(10), pages 1717-1730, October.
- Hasanov, Mübariz & Araç, Aysen & Telatar, Funda, 2010.
"Nonlinearity and structural stability in the Phillips curve: Evidence from Turkey,"
Elsevier, vol. 27(5), pages 1103-1115, September.
- Mubariz Hasanov & Aysen Arac & Funda Telatar, 2012. "Nonlinearity and Structural Stability in the Phillips Curve: Evidence from Turkey," Hacettepe University Department of Economics Working Papers 20123, Hacettepe University, Department of Economics.
- Fatma Zeren & Levent Korap, 2010.
"A Cost-based Empirical Model of the Aggregate Price Determination for the Turkish Economy: A Multivariate Cointegration Approach,"
Savez ekonomista Vojvodine, Novi Sad, Serbia, vol. 57(2), pages 173-188, June.
- Zeren, Fatma & Korap, Levent, 2010. "A cost-based empirical model of the aggregate price determination for the Turkish economy: a multivariate cointegration approach," MPRA Paper 23655, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- Torul Orhan & Alper C. Emre, 2010.
"Asymmetric Effects of Oil Prices on the Manufacturing Sector in Turkey,"
Review of Middle East Economics and Finance,
De Gruyter, vol. 6(1), pages 90-105, July.
- C. Emre Alper & Orhan Torul, 2009. "Asymmetric Effects of Oil Prices on the Manufacturing Sector in Turkey," Working Papers 2009/06, Bogazici University, Department of Economics.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (EconWPA).
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.