Optimal Univariate Expectations under High and Persistent Inflation : New Evidence From Turkey
AbstractThe poor performance of sticky-price models with rational expectations in explaining the inflationary inertia in the US economy constitutes the basis for sticky-price models of nearrational expectations in the recent literature. However, previous studies on inflationary inertia in Turkey not only lack a model of nominal stickiness but also do not try to explain inflation persistence by expectations. Even though, there exists evidence for persistent inflation in Turkey as confirmed by earlier studies, and other studies provide evidence that expectations are neither perfectly rational nor purely adaptive, there is no attempt to link this near-rational behavior to inflationary inertia. Given this gap, this paper, therefore, tests empirically a sticky-price model under the assumption of near-rational expectations on two different inflation episodes in the Turkish economy. The near-rational expectations as described by optimal univariate expectations where agents use information on past inflation optimally while data on other variables are ignored, not only fit the data for both periods but also are not subject to Lucas critique. Alternatively, near-rational expectations are assumed to be backward looking. This alternative scenario shows that optimal univariate expectations perform even better during relatively higher inflation periods.
Download InfoIf you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by Turkish Economic Association in its series Working Papers with number 2003/4.
Length: 26 pages
Date of creation: 2003
Date of revision:
Optimal univariate expectations; Inflation inertia; Lucas critique; Turkish economy;
Other versions of this item:
- Us, Vuslat & Ozcan, Kıvılcım Metin, 2005. "Optimal univariate expectations under high and persistent inflation: new evidence from Turkey," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 346(3), pages 499-517.
- E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
- E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Ball, Laurence, 1991.
"The Genesis of Inflation and the Costs of Disinflation,"
Journal of Money, Credit and Banking,
Blackwell Publishing, vol. 23(3), pages 439-52, August.
- Laurence Ball, 1991. "The genesis of inflation and the costs of disinflation," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, pages 439-461.
- Laurence Ball, 1991. "The Genesis of Inflation and the Costs of Disinflation," NBER Working Papers 3621, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Jeffrey Sachs, 1985. "The Dollar and the Policy Mix: 1985," NBER Working Papers 1636, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Laura Papi & G. C. Lim, 1997. "An Econometric Analysis of the Determinants of Inflation in Turkey," IMF Working Papers 97/170, International Monetary Fund.
- Christopher F. Baum & John T. Barkoulas & Mustafa Caglayan, 1999.
"Persistence in International Inflation Rates,"
Southern Economic Journal,
Southern Economic Association, vol. 65(4), pages 900-913, April.
- O. Cevdet Akcay & C. Emre Alper & Suleyman Ozmucur, 1996. "Budget Deficit, Money Supply and Inflation: Evidence from Low and High Frequency Data for Turkey," Working Papers 1996/12, Bogazici University, Department of Economics.
- Erinç Yeldan & Ümit Cizre-Sakallýoðlu, 1999. "Dynamics of Macroeconomic Disequilibrium and Inflation in Turkey : The State, Politics, and the Marketsunder a Globalized Developing Economy," Departmental Working Papers 9910, Bilkent University, Department of Economics.
- Lucas, Robert Jr, 1976. "Econometric policy evaluation: A critique," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 1(1), pages 19-46, January.
- Phelps, Edmund S & Taylor, John B, 1977. "Stabilizing Powers of Monetary Policy under Rational Expectations," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 85(1), pages 163-90, February.
- Pierre-Richard AgÃ©nor & Alexander W. Hoffmaister, 1997. "Money, Wages and Inflation in Middle-Income Developing Countries," IMF Working Papers 97/174, International Monetary Fund.
- C. Emre Alper & Murat Ucer, 1998. "Some Observations on Turkish Inflation: A ''Random Walk'' Down the Past Decade," Working Papers 1998/02, Bogazici University, Department of Economics.
- Akerlof, George A & Yellen, Janet L, 1985. "A Near-rational Model of the Business Cycle, with Wage and Price Intertia," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 100(5), pages 823-38, Supp..
- Olcay Yucel Emir & Almila Karasoy & Kursat Kunter, 2000. "Monetary Policy Reaction Function In Turkey," Discussion Papers 0005, Research and Monetary Policy Department, Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey.
- Soner Baskaya & Pelin Berkmen & H.Murat Ozbilgin & Erdal Yilmaz, 1999. "TEFE ve TUFE Endeksleri ile Alt Kalemlerindeki Mevsimsel Hareketlerin Incelenmesi," Working Papers 9902, Research and Monetary Policy Department, Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey.
- Roberts, John M, 1995. "New Keynesian Economics and the Phillips Curve," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 27(4), pages 975-84, November.
- Ercan Uygur, 1989. "Inflation Expectations of the Turkish Manufacturing Firms," Discussion Papers 8904, Research and Monetary Policy Department, Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Ercan Uygur).
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.