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Output, the Real Exchange Rate, and the Crises in Turkey

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Ardic, Oya Pinar

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Abstract

Since the 1980s, most emerging economies have experienced economic crises associated with large, prolonged current account deficits and real exchange rate misalignment. Eventually these governments ended up devaluing national currencies. Empirical evidence from developing countries suggests that devaluation, in most cases, have been contractionary due to demand-side and supply-side effects. This paper studies the Turkish experience since the 1980s, and based on the results of a VAR analysis, finds that devauations were indeed contractionary.

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Paper provided by University Library of Munich, Germany in its series MPRA Paper with number 6099.

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Date of creation: 29 Jan 2006
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Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:6099

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Related research
Keywords: Turkey real exchange rate crisis contractionary devaluations

Find related papers by JEL classification:
C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models
F32 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Current Account Adjustment; Short-term Capital Movements
F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange

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  1. G. C. Lim & Laura Papi, 1997. "An Econometric Analysis of the Determinants of Inflation in Turkey," IMF Working Papers 97/170, International Monetary Fund.
  2. Oya Celasun & Gaston R. Gelos & Alessandro Prati, 2003. "Would "Cold Turkey" Work in Turkey?," IMF Working Papers 03/49, International Monetary Fund. [Downloadable!]
  3. Gencay, Ramazan & Selcuk, Faruk, 2006. "Overnight borrowing, interest rates and extreme value theory," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 50(3), pages 547-563, April. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  4. Kamin, Steve B. & Rogers, John H., 2000. "Output and the real exchange rate in developing countries: an application to Mexico," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 61(1), pages 85-109, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  5. Ilker Domac & Mohsen Bahmani-Oskooee, 2002. "On the Link between Dollarization and Inflation : Evidence from Turkey," Discussion Papers 0207, Research and Monetary Policy Department, Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey. [Downloadable!]
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  6. Metin, Kivilcim, 1995. "An Integrated Analysis of Turkish Inflation," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 57(4), pages 513-31, November.
  7. Krugman, Paul & Taylor, Lance, 1978. "Contractionary effects of devaluation," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 8(3), pages 445-456, August. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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