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Ex ante Dynamics of Real Effects of Monetary Policy: Theory and Evidence for Poland and Russia, 2001–2003

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  • Wojciech W Charemza

    ()
    ([1] National Bank of Poland, BBM, Warsaw, Poland [2] University of Leicester, Leicester, UK.)

  • Svetlana Makarova

    ([1] National Bank of Poland, BBM, Warsaw, Poland [2] European University at St Petersburg, St Petersburg, Russia)

Abstract

This paper proposes a new indicator of the expected real effects of an inflation-targeting monetary policy. This indicator can be derived from a simple two-dimensional vector autoregressive model of inflation and the output gap. A simulation experiment illustrates its rationale for timing monetary decisions, if the control of output is a secondary policy target. Applied for Poland, this might have contributed to a policy that would have reduced Polish inflation in 2003 and increased output growth in 2004. We also show how this indicator can be applied for RussiaComparative Economic Studies (2006) 48, 458–479. doi:10.1057/palgrave.ces.8100180

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Article provided by Palgrave Macmillan in its journal Comparative Economic Studies.

Volume (Year): 48 (2006)
Issue (Month): 3 (September)
Pages: 458-479

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Handle: RePEc:pal:compes:v:48:y:2006:i:3:p:458-479

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  1. Gunter Coenen & Volker Wieland, 2000. "A Small Estimated Euro-Area Model with Rational Expectations and Nominal Rigidities," Econometric Society World Congress 2000 Contributed Papers 1284, Econometric Society.
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  1. Wojciech Charemza
    by Metablog Obserwatora Finansowego in Obserwator Finansowy on 2009-12-10 11:59:58
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Cited by:
  1. Wojciech Charemza & Svetlana Makarova & Imran Shah, 2013. "Making the most of High Inflation," Discussion Papers in Economics 13/01, Department of Economics, University of Leicester.

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