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Monetary policy rules for Russia

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  • Esanov, Akram
  • Merkl, Christian
  • Vinhas de Souza, Lucio

Abstract

The paper reviews the recent conduct of monetary policy and the central bank’s rule-based behavior in Russia. Using different policy rules, we test whether the central bank in Russia reacts to changes in inflation, output gap and the exchange rate in a consistent and predictable manner. Our results indicate that during the period of 1993-2002 the Bank of Russia has used monetary aggregates as a main policy instrument in conducting monetary policy.

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Elsevier in its journal Journal of Comparative Economics.

Volume (Year): 33 (2005)
Issue (Month): 3 (September)
Pages: 484-499

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Handle: RePEc:eee:jcecon:v:33:y:2005:i:3:p:484-499

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Web page: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/inca/622864

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References

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  1. W A Razzak, 2001. "Is the Taylor rule really different from the McCallum rule?," Reserve Bank of New Zealand Discussion Paper Series DP2001/07, Reserve Bank of New Zealand.
  2. Laurence Ball, 1998. "Policy Rules for Open Economies," NBER Working Papers 6760, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  3. Detken, Carsten & Gaspar, Vítor, 2003. "Maintaining price stability under free-floating: a fearless way out of the corner?," Working Paper Series, European Central Bank 0241, European Central Bank.
  4. A. Еslund, 2001. "The Myth of Output Collapse After Communism," VOPROSY ECONOMIKI, N.P. Redaktsiya zhurnala "Voprosy Economiki", N.P. Redaktsiya zhurnala "Voprosy Economiki", vol. 7.
  5. André Minella & Paulo Springer de Freitas & Ilan Goldfajn & Marcelo Kfoury Muinhos, 2003. "Inflation Targeting in Brazil: Constructing Credibility Under Exchange Rate Volatility," Anais do XXXI Encontro Nacional de Economia [Proceedings of the 31th Brazilian Economics Meeting], ANPEC - Associação Nacional dos Centros de Pósgraduação em Economia [Brazilian Association of Gr b26, ANPEC - Associação Nacional dos Centros de Pósgraduação em Economia [Brazilian Association of Graduate Programs in Economics].
  6. Elisabetta Falcetti & Martin Raiser & Peter Sanfey, 2000. "Defying the odds: initial conditions, reforms and growth in the first decade of transition," Working Papers 55, European Bank for Reconstruction and Development, Office of the Chief Economist.
  7. Vdovichenko Anna & Voronina Victoria, 2004. "Monetary policy rules and their application in Russia," EERC Working Paper Series 04-09e, EERC Research Network, Russia and CIS.
  8. M. S. Mohanty & Marc Klau, 2004. "Monetary policy rules in emerging market economies: issues and evidence," BIS Working Papers 149, Bank for International Settlements.
  9. Torres, Alberto, 2003. "Monetary policy and interest rates: evidence from Mexico," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 14(3), pages 357-379, December.
  10. Richard H. Clarida & Mark Gertler, 1997. "How the Bundesbank Conducts Monetary Policy," NBER Chapters, in: Reducing Inflation: Motivation and Strategy, pages 363-412 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  11. Mccallum, Bennet T., 1988. "Robustness properties of a rule for monetary policy," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, Elsevier, vol. 29(1), pages 173-203, January.
  12. Taylor, John B., 1993. "Discretion versus policy rules in practice," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, Elsevier, vol. 39(1), pages 195-214, December.
  13. Athanasios Orphanides, 1998. "Monetary policy rules based on real-time data," Finance and Economics Discussion Series, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.) 1998-03, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  14. Calderon, Cesar & Schmidt-Hebbel, Klaus, 2003. "Macroeconomic policies and performance in Latin America," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, Elsevier, vol. 22(7), pages 895-923, December.
  15. Marek Dabrowski & Wojciech Paczynski & Lukasz Rawdanowicz, 2002. "Inflation and Monetary Policy in Russia: Transition Experience and Future Recommendations," CASE Network Studies and Analyses, CASE-Center for Social and Economic Research 0241, CASE-Center for Social and Economic Research.
  16. John B. Taylor, 2001. "The Role of the Exchange Rate in Monetary-Policy Rules," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, American Economic Association, vol. 91(2), pages 263-267, May.
  17. Gerberding, Christina & Worms, Andreas & Seitz, Franz, 2004. "How the Bundesbank really conducted monetary policy: An analysis based on real-time data," Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies 2004,25, Deutsche Bundesbank, Research Centre.
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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Charemza , Wojciech W. & Makarov, Svetlana, 2005. "Ex-ante dynamics of real effects of monetary policy: Theory and evidence for Poland and Russia, 2001-2003," BOFIT Discussion Papers, Bank of Finland, Institute for Economies in Transition 20/2005, Bank of Finland, Institute for Economies in Transition.
  2. Evsey Gurvich & Vladimir Sokolov & Alexey Ulyukaev, 2009. "Analysis of the Relationship Between the Exchange Rate Policy of the Russian Central Bank and the Interest Rates: Uncovered and Covered Parity," Journal of the New Economic Association, New Economic Association, New Economic Association, issue 1-2, pages 104-126.
  3. Ikeda, Taro, 2010. "Interest Rate Rule For The Russian Monetary Policy : Nonlinearity And Asymmetricity," Hitotsubashi Journal of Economics, Hitotsubashi University, Hitotsubashi University, vol. 51(1), pages 1-11, June.
  4. Kristina Kittelmann & Marcel Tirpak & Rainer Schweickert & L�cio Vinhas De Souza, 2006. "From Transition Crises to Macroeconomic Stability? Lessons from a Crises Early Warning System for Eastern European and CIS Countries," Comparative Economic Studies, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 48(3), pages 410-434, September.
  5. Granville, Brigitte & Mallick, Sushanta, 2010. "Monetary Policy in Russia: Identifying exchange rate shocks," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 27(1), pages 432-444, January.
  6. Sushanta Mallick & Ricardo Sousa, 2013. "Commodity Prices, Inflationary Pressures, and Monetary Policy: Evidence from BRICS Economies," Open Economies Review, Springer, Springer, vol. 24(4), pages 677-694, September.
  7. Fan, Longzhen & Yu, Yihong & Zhang, Chu, 2011. "An empirical evaluation of China's monetary policies," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, Elsevier, vol. 33(2), pages 358-371, June.
  8. Tuuli Juurikkala & Alexei Karas & Laura Solanko, 2011. "The Role of Banks in Monetary Policy Transmission: Empirical Evidence from Russia," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 19(1), pages 109-121, 02.
  9. Kirill Sosunov & Oleg Zamulin, 2007. "Monetary Policy in an Economy Sick with Dutch Disease," Working Papers, Laboratory for Macroeconomic Analysis WP13_2007_07, Laboratory for Macroeconomic Analysis.
  10. Fredj Jawadi & Sushanta K. Mallick & Ricardo M. Sousa, 2011. "Monetary Policy Rules in the BRICS: How Important is Nonlinearity?," NIPE Working Papers, NIPE - Universidade do Minho 18/2011, NIPE - Universidade do Minho.
  11. Bruno Merlevede & Koen Schoors & Bas van Aarle, 2004. "Russia from Bust to Boom: Oil, Politics or the Ruble?," William Davidson Institute Working Papers Series 2004-722, William Davidson Institute at the University of Michigan.
  12. Ono, Shigeki, 2013. "The effects of foreign exchange and monetary policies in Russia," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 37(4), pages 522-541.
  13. Claeys, Sophie, 2005. "Optimal regulatory design for the Central Bank of Russia," BOFIT Discussion Papers, Bank of Finland, Institute for Economies in Transition 7/2005, Bank of Finland, Institute for Economies in Transition.
  14. Vymyatnina, Yulia, 2006. "How much control does Bank of Russia have over money supply?," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, Elsevier, vol. 20(2), pages 131-144, June.
  15. Lúcio Vinhas de Souza, 2009. "Russia's Recent Economic and Reform Performance and Remaining Reform Challenges," Journal of the New Economic Association, New Economic Association, New Economic Association, issue 1-2, pages 207-222.
  16. Vinhas de Souza, Lúcio & Schweickert, Rainer & Movchan, Veronika & Bilan, Olena & Burakovsky, Igor, 2005. "Now so near, and yet still so far: economic relations between Ukraine and the European Union," Kiel Discussion Papers 419, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW).
  17. Granville, Brigitte & Mallick, Sushanta, 2006. "Does inflation or currency depreciation drive monetary policy in Russia?," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, Elsevier, vol. 20(2), pages 163-179, June.
  18. Mallick, Sushanta K. & Sousa, Ricardo M., 2012. "Real Effects Of Monetary Policy In Large Emerging Economies," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, Cambridge University Press, vol. 16(S2), pages 190-212, September.
  19. Muneesh Kapur & Michael Debabrata Patra, 2012. "Alternative Monetary Policy Rules for India," IMF Working Papers 12/118, International Monetary Fund.

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