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Staggered Price Contracts and Inflation Persistence: Some General Results

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Author Info
Whelan, Karl (Central Bank and Financial Services Authority of Ireland)

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Abstract

Despite their popularity as theoretical tools for illustrating the effects of nominal rigidities, some have questioned whether models based on Taylor-style staggered contracts can match the persistence of the empirical inflation process. This paper presents some general theoretical results about the Taylor-style models. It is shown that these models do not have a problem matching high autocorrelations for inflation. However, they fail to explain a key feature of reduced-form Phillips-curve regressions: The positive dependence of inflation on its own lags. It is shown that staggered price contracting models instead predict that the coefficients on these lag terms should be negative.

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Paper provided by Central Bank & Financial Services Authority of Ireland (CBFSAI) in its series Research Technical Papers with number 8/RT/04.

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Length: 38 pages
Date of creation: Oct 2004
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Handle: RePEc:cbi:wpaper:8/rt/04

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Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
  1. Michael Dotsey, 2002. "Pitfalls in interpreting tests of backward-looking pricing in New Keynesian models," Economic Quarterly, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond, issue Win, pages 37-50. [Downloadable!]
  2. Binder,M. & Pesaran,H.M., 1995. "Multivariate Rational Expectations Models and Macroeconomic Modelling: A Review and Some New Results," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 9415, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
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  3. V. V. Chari & Patrick J. Kehoe & Ellen R. McGrattan, 2000. "Sticky Price Models of the Business Cycle: Can the Contract Multiplier Solve the Persistence Problem?," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 68(5), pages 1151-1180, September.
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  4. O'Reilly,Gerard & Whelan, Karl, 2004. "Has Euro-Area Inflation Persistence Changed Over Time?," Research Technical Papers 4/RT/04, Central Bank & Financial Services Authority of Ireland (CBFSAI). [Downloadable!]
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  5. Taylor, John B, 1979. "Staggered Wage Setting in a Macro Model," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 69(2), pages 108-13, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  6. Gali, Jordi & Gertler, Mark, 1999. "Inflation dynamics: A structural econometric analysis," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 44(2), pages 195-222, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  7. Gali, Jordi & Gertler, Mark & Lopez-Salido, J. David, 2001. "European inflation dynamics," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 45(7), pages 1237-1270. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  8. Fuhrer, Jeff & Moore, George, 1995. "Inflation Persistence," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 110(1), pages 127-59, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  9. Luca Guerrieri, 2002. "The inflation persistence of staggered contracts," International Finance Discussion Papers 734, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.). [Downloadable!]
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  10. Gabriel Fagan & Jérôme Henry & Ricardo Mestre, 2001. "An area-wide model (AWM) for the euro area," Working Paper Series 42, European Central Bank. [Downloadable!]
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(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Luis J. Alvarez, 2007. "What Do Micro Price Data Tell Us on the Validity of the New Keynesian Phillips Curve?," Kiel Working Papers 1330, Kiel Institute for the World Economy. [Downloadable!]
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  2. Bakhshi, Hasan & Khan, Hashmat & Rudolf, Barbara, 2006. "The Phillips Curve Under State-Dependent Pricing," CEPR Discussion Papers 5945, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  3. Kevin J. Lansing, 2006. "Time-Varying U.S. Inflation Dynamics and the New Keynesian Phillips Curve," Computing in Economics and Finance 2006 488, Society for Computational Economics. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  4. Jeremy Rudd & Karl Whelan, 2005. "Modelling inflation dynamics: a critical review of recent research," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2005-66, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.). [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  5. de Walque, Gregory & Smets, Frank & Wouters, Rafael, 2006. "Firm-Specific Production Factors in a DSGE Model with Taylor Price Setting," MPRA Paper 810, University Library of Munich, Germany. [Downloadable!]
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  6. Laurent Bilke, 2005. "Break in the mean and persistence of inflation - a sectoral analysis of French CPI," Working Paper Series 463, European Central Bank. [Downloadable!]
  7. Hashmat Khan & John Tsoukalas, 2005. "Technology Shocks and UK Business Cycles," Macroeconomics 0512006, EconWPA. [Downloadable!]
  8. Yao, Fang, 2009. "Time-dependent pricing and New Keynesian Phillips curve," Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies 2009,08, Deutsche Bundesbank, Research Centre. [Downloadable!]
  9. Charemza , Wojciech W. & Makarov, Svetlana, 2005. "Ex-ante dynamics of real effects of monetary policy: Theory and evidence for Poland and Russia, 2001-2003," BOFIT Discussion Papers 20/2005, Bank of Finland, Institute for Economies in Transition. [Downloadable!]
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