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The inflation persistence of staggered contracts

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Luca Guerrieri

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Abstract

One of the criticisms routinely advanced against models of the business cycle with staggered contracts is their inability to generate inflation persistence. This paper finds that staggered Taylor contracts are, in fact, capable of reproducing the inflation persistence implied by U.S. data. Following Fuhrer and Moore, I capture the moments that the contract specification needs to replicate by using the correlograms from a small vector autoregression (VAR) that includes inflation among the endogenous variables. A simple structural model substitutes the inflation equation from the VAR with the contract specification. I estimate the contract parameters in the structural model by maximum likelihood. The correlogram for the endogenous variables from the estimated structural model, including that for inflation, are very close to the correlograms from the VAR (and are contained within their 90% confidence intervals). By the same metric, where Taylor contracts do not fare well is in reproducing the cross-correlations between inflation and output.

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Paper provided by Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.) in its series International Finance Discussion Papers with number 734.

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Date of creation: 2002
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Keywords: Inflation (Finance) ; Phillips curve;

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This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports: References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
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  2. Christopher J. Erceg and Andrew T. Levin, 2001. "Imperfect Credibility and Inflation Persistence," Computing in Economics and Finance 2001 19, Society for Computational Economics.
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  3. Luca Guerrieri, 2001. "Inflation dynamics," International Finance Discussion Papers 715, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.). [Downloadable!]
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  6. Taylor, John B, 1980. "Aggregate Dynamics and Staggered Contracts," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 88(1), pages 1-23, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  7. Lawrence J. Christiano & Martin Eichenbaum & Charles L. Evans, 1998. "Modeling Money," NBER Working Papers 6371, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  8. Sbordone, Argia M., 2002. "Prices and unit labor costs: a new test of price stickiness," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 49(2), pages 265-292, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  9. Buiter, Willem H & Jewitt, Ian, 1981. "Staggered Wage Setting with Real Wage Relativities: Variations on a Theme of Taylor," The Manchester School of Economic & Social Studies, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 49(3), pages 211-28, September.
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  11. Gali, Jordi & Gertler, Mark, 1999. "Inflation dynamics: A structural econometric analysis," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 44(2), pages 195-222, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  12. Timothy Cogley & Thomas Sargent, . "Evolving Post-World War II U.S. Inflation Dynamics," Working Papers 2132872, Department of Economics, W. P. Carey School of Business, Arizona State University. [Downloadable!]
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  13. Gali, Jordi & Gertler, Mark & Lopez-Salido, J. David, 2001. "European inflation dynamics," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 45(7), pages 1237-1270. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  14. Evans, Martin & Wachtel, Paul, 1993. "Inflation Regimes and the," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 25(3), pages 475-511, August. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  16. Günter Coenen & Volker Wieland, 2000. "A small estimated Euro area model with rational expectations and nominal rigidities," Working Paper Series 30, European Central Bank. [Downloadable!]
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  17. Roberts, John M., 1997. "Is inflation sticky?," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 39(2), pages 173-196, July. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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Full references

Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Bakhshi, Hasan & Khan, Hashmat & Rudolf, Barbara, 2006. "The Phillips Curve Under State-Dependent Pricing," CEPR Discussion Papers 5945, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  2. Huw Dixon, 2006. "The distribution of contract durations across firms - a unified framework for understanding and comparing dynamic wage and price setting models," Working Paper Series 676, European Central Bank. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  3. Karl Whelan, 2004. "Staggered price contracts and inflation persistence: some general results," Working Paper Series 417, European Central Bank. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  4. Rudolf, B. & Bakhshi, H., 2005. "The Phillips Curve Under State-Dependent Pricing," Computing in Economics and Finance 2005 68, Society for Computational Economics. [Downloadable!]
  5. Agenor, Pierre-Richard & Bayraktar, Nihal, 2003. "Contracting models of the Phillips curve - empirical estimates for Middle-income countries," Policy Research Working Paper Series 3139, The World Bank. [Downloadable!]
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  6. Jeremy Rudd & Karl Whelan, 2006. "Can Rational Expectations Sticky-Price Models Explain Inflation Dynamics?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 96(1), pages 303-320, March. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  7. Andreas Hornstein & Alexander L. Wolman, 2005. "Trend inflation, firm-specific capital, and sticky prices," Economic Quarterly, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond, issue Fall, pages 57-83. [Downloadable!]
  8. Argia M. Sbordone, 2006. "U.S. wage and price dynamics: a limited information approach," Staff Reports 256, Federal Reserve Bank of New York. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  9. Fabio Milani, 2005. "Adaptive Learning and Inflation Persistence," Working Papers 050607, University of California-Irvine, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  10. Peter Tinsley & Sharon Kozicki, 2003. "Alternative Sources of the Lag Dynamics of Inflation," Computing in Economics and Finance 2003 92, Society for Computational Economics. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
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