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Inflation Forecasts and the New Keynesian Phillips Curve

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Author Info
Sophocles N. Brissimis () (Bank of Greece, Economic Research Department and University of Piraeus)
Nicholas S. Magginas (National Bank of Greece)

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Abstract

The ability of the New Keynesian Phillips curve to explain US inflation dynamics when official central bank forecasts (Greenbook forecasts) are used as a proxy for inflation expectations is examined. The New Keynesian Phillips curve is estimated on quarterly data spanning the period 1970Q1-1998Q2 against the alternative of the Hybrid Phillips curve, which allows for a backward-looking component in the price-setting behavior in the economy. The results are compared to those obtained using actual data on future inflation as conventionally employed in empirical work under the assumption of rational expectations. The empirical evidence provides, in contrast to most of the relevant literature, considerable support for the standard forward-looking New Keynesian Phillips curve when inflation expectations are measured using official inflation forecasts. In this case, lagged inflation terms become insignificant in the hybrid specification. The usefulness of real unit labor cost as the preferred proxy for real marginal cost in recent empirical work on the Phillips curve is confirmed by our results.

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Paper provided by Bank of Greece in its series Working Papers with number 38.

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Length: 27 pages
Date of creation: May 2006
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Handle: RePEc:bog:wpaper:38

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Related research
Keywords: Money demand; Inflation; Phillips curve; Real marginal cost; Real-time data; GMM estimation;

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Find related papers by JEL classification:
C13 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods: General - - - Estimation
C52 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Evaluation and Testing
E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
E37 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Forecasting and Simulation
E50 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - General
E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy

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Full references

Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Todd E. Clark & Troy Davig, 2008. "An empirical assessment of the relationships among inflation and short- and long-term expectations," Research Working Paper RWP 08-05, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City. [Downloadable!]
  2. Sven W. Arndt, 2006. "Regional Currency Arrangements in North America," Working Papers 40, Bank of Greece. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  3. James M. Nason & Gregor W. Smith, 2008. "The new Keynesian Phillips curve : lessons from single-equation econometric estimation," Economic Quarterly, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond, issue Fall, pages 361-395. [Downloadable!]
  4. Hans Genberg, 2006. "Exchange-Rate Arrangements and Financial Integration in East Asia: On a Collision Course?," Working Papers 41, Bank of Greece. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  5. Richard N. Cooper & Michael Bordo & Harold James, 2006. "What About a World Currency? Proposal for a Common Currency among Rich Democracies. One World Money, Then and Now," Working Papers 44, Bank of Greece. [Downloadable!]
  6. George Hondroyiannis & P.A.V.B. Swamy & George S. Tavlas, 2007. "The New Keynesian Phillips Curve and Lagged Inflation: A Case of Spurious Correlation?," Working Papers 57, Bank of Greece. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  7. Andreas S. Andreou & George A. Zombanakis, 2006. "Computational Intelligence in Exchange-Rate Forecasting," Working Papers 49, Bank of Greece. [Downloadable!]
  8. Aleksejs Melihovs & Anna Zasova, 2007. "Estimation of the Phillips Curve for Latvia," Working Papers 2007/03, Latvijas Banka. [Downloadable!]
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