This file is part of IDEAS, which uses RePEc data


[ Papers | Articles | Software | Books | Chapters | Authors | Institutions | JEL Classification | NEP reports | Search | New papers by email | Author registration | Rankings | Volunteers | FAQ | Blog | Help! ]

Imperfect Credibility and Inflation Persistence

Author info | Abstract | Publisher info | Download info | Related research | Statistics
Author Info
Christopher J. Erceg and Andrew T. Levin

Additional information is available for the following registered author(s):

Abstract

Contract structures typically embedded in a recent generation of models with nominal inertia have been criticized for a failure to generate persistent responses of output and inflation to nominal shocks. In this paper, we argue that this failure does not reflect an inherent limitation of the contract structure, but rather, very strong assumptions about central bank credibility. We show that an optimization-based DGE model with four-quarter price and wage contracts can generate highly persistent inflation and output responses when the private sector must use signal extraction to make inferences about the central bank's inflation target based on only observing the policy instrument. In particular, we consider the disinflation experiences of the United States and several other industrial countries in the early 1980s, and we demonstrate that the model matches the dynamics of both expected and actual inflation and generates sacrifice ratios which are roughly in line with empirical estimates.

Download Info
To our knowledge, this item is not available for download. To find whether it is available, there are three options:
1. Check below under "Related research" whether another version of this item is available online.
2. Check on the provider's web page whether it is in fact available.
3. Perform a search for a similarly titled item that would be available.

Publisher Info
Paper provided by Society for Computational Economics in its series Computing in Economics and Finance 2001 with number 19.

Download reference. The following formats are available: HTML (with abstract), plain text (with abstract), BibTeX, RIS (EndNote, RefMan, ProCite), ReDIF
Length:
Date of creation: 01 Apr 2001
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:sce:scecf1:19

Contact details of provider:
Email:
Web page: http://www.econometricsociety.org/conference/SCE2001/SCE2001.html
More information through EDIRC

For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its listing, contact: (Christopher F. Baum).

Related research
Keywords: nominal inertia; disinflation; signal extraction;

Other versions of this item:

Find related papers by JEL classification:
E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy

This item is featured on the following reading lists:

  1. Top 1‰ items by number of citations weighted by simple impact factors and discounted by age
  2. Top 1‰ items by number of citations weighted by recursive impact factors and discounted by age
References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
  1. Fuhrer, Jeffrey C. & Hooker, Mark A., 1993. "Learning about monetary regime shifts in an overlapping wage contract model," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 17(4), pages 531-553, July. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  2. Lawrence J. Christiano & Christopher Gust, 2000. "The expectations trap hypothesis," Economic Perspectives, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, issue Q II, pages 21-39. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  3. Athanasios Orphanides & David H. Small & Volker Wieland & David W. Wilcox, 1997. "A quantitative exploration of the opportunistic approach to disinflation," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 1997-36, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.). [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  4. Gertler, Mark, 1982. "Imperfect Information and Wage Inertia in the Business Cycle," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 90(5), pages 967-87, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  5. Rochelle M. Edge, 2000. "The equivalence of wage and price staggering in monetary business cycle models," International Finance Discussion Papers 672, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.). [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  6. V. V. Chari & Patrick J. Kehoe & Ellen R. McGrattan, 2000. "Sticky Price Models of the Business Cycle: Can the Contract Multiplier Solve the Persistence Problem?," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 68(5), pages 1151-1180, September.
    Other versions:
  7. Thomas J. Sargent, 1981. "Stopping moderate inflations: the methods of Poincaré and Thatcher," Working Papers 0, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis. [Downloadable!]
  8. Christopher J. Erceg, 1997. "Nominal wage rigidities and the propagation of monetary disturbances," International Finance Discussion Papers 590, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.). [Downloadable!]
  9. Jeffrey Sachs, 1985. "The Dollar and the Policy Mix: 1985," NBER Working Papers 1636, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  10. Shapiro, Matthew D, 1986. "The Dynamic Demand for Capital and Labor," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 101(3), pages 513-42, August. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  11. Marvin Goodfriend, 1997. "Monetary policy comes of age: a 20th century odyssey," Economic Quarterly, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond, issue Win, pages 1-22. [Downloadable!]
  12. Taylor, John B, 1980. "Aggregate Dynamics and Staggered Contracts," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 88(1), pages 1-23, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  13. John B. Taylor, 1984. "Union Wage Settlements During a Disinflation," NBER Working Papers 0985, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  14. Eberly, Janice C., 1997. "International evidence on investment and fundamentals," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 41(6), pages 1055-1078, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  15. Rochelle M. Edge, 2000. "Time-to-build, time-to-plan, habit-persistence, and the liquidity effect," International Finance Discussion Papers 673, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.). [Downloadable!]
  16. McCallum, Bennett T, 1995. "Two Fallacies Concerning Central-Bank Independence," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 85(2), pages 207-11, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  17. John M. Roberts, 2001. "How well does the New Keynesian sticky-price model fit the data?," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2001-13, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.). [Downloadable!]
  18. Erceg, Christopher J. & Henderson, Dale W. & Levin, Andrew T., 2000. "Optimal monetary policy with staggered wage and price contracts," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 46(2), pages 281-313, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  19. Peter N. Ireland, 1996. "Stopping inflations, big and small," Working Paper 96-01, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  20. Günter Coenen & Athanasios Orphanides & Volker Wieland, 2003. "Price stability and monetary policy effectiveness when nominal interest rates are bounded at zero," Working Paper Series 231, European Central Bank. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  21. Richard Clarida & Jordi Galí & Mark Gertler, 2000. "Monetary Policy Rules And Macroeconomic Stability: Evidence And Some Theory," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 115(1), pages 147-180, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  22. Robert King & Alexander L. Wolman, 1999. "What Should the Monetary Authority Do When Prices Are Sticky?," NBER Chapters, in: Monetary Policy Rules, pages 349-404 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!]
  23. Evans, Martin & Wachtel, Paul, 1993. "Inflation Regimes and the," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 25(3), pages 475-511, August. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  24. Goodfriend, Marvin, 1991. "Interest rates and the conduct of monetary policy," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 34(1), pages 7-30, January. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  25. Jason G. Cummins & Kevin A. Hassett & Stephen D. Oliner, 1999. "Investment behavior, observable expectations, and internal funds," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 1999-27, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.). [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  26. Ireland, Peter N., 1995. "Optimal disinflationary paths," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 19(8), pages 1429-1448, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  27. Blanchard, Olivier Jean & Kahn, Charles M, 1980. "The Solution of Linear Difference Models under Rational Expectations," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 48(5), pages 1305-11, July. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  28. Taylor, John B, 1982. "Establishing Credibility: A Rational Expectations Viewpoint," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 72(2), pages 81-85, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  29. Orphanides, Athanasios & Wilcox, David W, 2002. "The Opportunistic Approach to Disinflation," International Finance, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 5(1), pages 47-71, Spring. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  30. Kim, Jinill, 2000. "Constructing and estimating a realistic optimizing model of monetary policy," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 45(2), pages 329-359, April. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  31. Julio Rotemberg & Michael Woodford, 1997. "An Optimization-Based Econometric Framework for the Evaluation of Monetary Policy," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 1997, Volume 12, pages 297-361 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!]
Full references

Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)
This item has more than 25 citations. To prevent cluttering this page, these citations are listed on a separate page.
Statistics
Access and download statistics

Did you know? No RePEc service, like IDEAS, charges for the use or the display of bibliographic data.

This page was last updated on 2009-11-13.

This information is provided to you by IDEAS at the Department of Economics, College of Liberal Arts and Sciences, University of Connecticut using RePEc data on a server sponsored by the Society for Economic Dynamics.