This paper analyzes the role of transparency and credibility in accounting for the widely divergent macroeconomic effects of three episodes of deliberate monetary contraction: the post-Civil War deflation, the post-WWI deflation, and the Volcker disinflation. Using a dynamic general equilibrium model in which private agents use optimal filtering to infer the central bank's nominal anchor, we demonstrate that the salient features of these three historical episodes can be explained by differences in the design and transparency of monetary policy, even without any time variation in economic structure or model parameters. For a policy regime with relatively high credibility, our analysis highlights the benefits of a gradualist approach (as in the 1870s) rather than a sudden change in policy (as in 1920-21). In contrast, for a policy institution with relatively low credibility (such as the Federal Reserve in late 1980), an aggressive policy stance can play an important signalling role by making the policy shift more evident to private agents.
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Paper provided by National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc in its series NBER Working Papers with number
12982.
Length: Date of creation: Mar 2007 Date of revision: Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:12982
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Find related papers by JEL classification: E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles E42 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Monetary Sytsems; Standards; Regimes; Government and the Monetary System E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies
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Thomas J. Sargent, 1982.
"The Ends of Four Big Inflations,"
NBER Chapters,
in: Inflation: Causes and Effects, pages 41-98
National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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Marc Giannoni & Michael Woodford, 2004.
"Optimal Inflation-Targeting Rules,"
NBER Chapters,
in: The Inflation-Targeting Debate, pages 93-172
National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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