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Expectations, Credibility, And Time-Consistent Monetary Policy

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Author Info
Ireland, Peter N.

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Abstract

This paper addresses the problem of multiple equilibria ina model of time-consistent monetary policy. It suggests that this problemoriginates in the assumption that agents have rational expectations andproposes several alternative restrictions on expectations that allow themonetary authority to build credibility for a disinflationary policy bydemonstrating that it will stick to that policy even if it imposes short-runcosts on the economy. Starting with these restrictions, the paper derivesconditions that guarantee the uniqueness of the model s steady state;monetary policy in this unique steady state involves the constant deflationadvocated by Milton Friedman.

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File URL: http://journals.cambridge.org/abstract_S1365100500017028
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Publisher Info
Article provided by Cambridge University Press in its journal Macroeconomic Dynamics.

Volume (Year): 4 (2000)
Issue (Month): 04 (December)
Pages: 448-466
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Handle: RePEc:cup:macdyn:v:4:y:2000:i:04:p:448-466_01

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References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
  1. Stokey, Nancy L., 1991. "Credible public policy," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 15(4), pages 627-656, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  2. Grandmont, Jean-Michel & Laroque, Guy, 1986. "Stability of cycles and expectations," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 40(1), pages 138-151, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  3. Marcet, Albert & Sargent, Thomas J., 1989. "Convergence of least squares learning mechanisms in self-referential linear stochastic models," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 48(2), pages 337-368, August. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  4. Tillmann, Georg, 1983. "Stability in a simple pure consumption loan model," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 30(2), pages 315-329, August. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  5. Barro, Robert J. & Gordon, David B., 1983. "Rules, discretion and reputation in a model of monetary policy," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 12(1), pages 101-121. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  6. Chari, V V & Kehoe, Patrick J, 1990. "Sustainable Plans," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 98(4), pages 783-802, August. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  7. Bennett T. McCallum, 1995. "Two Fallacies Concerning Central Bank Independence," NBER Working Papers 5075, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  8. Fuchs, Gerard & Laroque, Guy, 1976. "Dynamics of Temporary Equilibria and Expectations," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 44(6), pages 1157-78, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  9. Ireland, Peter N., 1997. "Sustainable monetary policies," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 22(1), pages 87-108, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  10. Blackburn, Keith & Christensen, Michael, 1989. "Monetary Policy and Policy Credibility: Theories and Evidence," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 27(1), pages 1-45, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  11. Taylor, John B, 1982. "Establishing Credibility: A Rational Expectations Viewpoint," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 72(2), pages 81-85, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  12. Robert J. Barro, 1986. "Reputation in a Model of Monetary Policy with Incomplete Information," NBER Working Papers 1794, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  13. Kydland, Finn E & Prescott, Edward C, 1977. "Rules Rather Than Discretion: The Inconsistency of Optimal Plans," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 85(3), pages 473-91, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  14. Lucas, Robert E, Jr, 1980. "Equilibrium in a Pure Currency Economy," Economic Inquiry, Oxford University Press, vol. 18(2), pages 203-20, April.
  15. Rubinstein, Ariel, 1986. "Finite automata play the repeated prisoner's dilemma," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 39(1), pages 83-96, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  16. Fuchs, Gerard, 1979. "Is error learning behaviour stabilizing?," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 20(3), pages 300-317, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  17. Backus, David & Driffill, John, 1985. "Inflation and Reputation," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 75(3), pages 530-38, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Kaushik Mitra & James Bullard, . "Learning About Monetary Policy Rules," Discussion Papers 00/41, Department of Economics, University of York. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  2. Silvia Sgherri & Tamim Bayoumi, 2004. "Monetary Magic? How the Fed Improved the Supply Side of the Economy," Econometric Society 2004 Far Eastern Meetings 422, Econometric Society. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  3. Collard, Fabrice & Dellas, Harris, 2004. "The New Keynesian Model with Imperfect Information and Learning," IDEI Working Papers 273, Institut d'Économie Industrielle (IDEI), Toulouse. [Downloadable!]
  4. Peter N. Ireland, 2002. ""Rules Rather Than Discretion" After Twenty Five Years: What Have We Learned? What More Can We Learn?," Boston College Working Papers in Economics 530, Boston College Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
  5. Meenagh, David & Minford, Patrick & Nowell, Eric & Sofat, Prakriti & Srinivasan, Naveen, 2008. "Can the Facts of UK Inflation Persistence be Explained by Nominal Rigidity?," Cardiff Economics Working Papers E2008/7, Cardiff University, Cardiff Business School, Economics Section, revised Dec 2008. [Downloadable!]
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  6. Kaushik Mitra, . "Desirability of Nominal GDP Targeting Under Adaptive Learning," Discussion Papers 00/60, Department of Economics, University of York. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  7. Agnès d'Artigues and Thierry Vignolo, . "Long-run Equilibria in the Monetary Policy Game," The Electronic Journal of Evolutionary Modeling and Economic Dynamics, IFReDE - Université Montesquieu Bordeaux IV. [Downloadable!]
  8. James Bullard & Christopher J. Waller, 2002. "Central bank design in general equilibrium," Working Papers 1998-002, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  9. David Meenagh & Patrick Minford & Eric Nowell & Prakriti Sofat & Naveen Srinivasan, 2007. "Are the facts of UK inflation persistence to be explained by nominal rigidity or changes in monetary regime?," WEF Working Papers 0028, ESRC World Economy and Finance Research Programme, Birkbeck, University of London. [Downloadable!]
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