IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/pra/mprapa/118403.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Perceived Inflation in Germany in 2022

Author

Listed:
  • Treu, Johannes
  • Hartwig, Johannes

Abstract

The starting point of the paper is the question of the current level of perceived inflation (by consumers) in Germany and the (quantitative) difference between perceived inflation and officially measured inflation This paper shows that there is a very large difference between the official measured inflation rate and perceived inflation in Germany. While the inflation rate in Germany was 10.0% in September 2022 and 10.4% in October, a nationwide ad-hoc consumer survey revealed that respondents perceived inflation to be 34.15%. At the same time, the paper provides an explanatory approach to explain the perceived inflation using regression models. It becomes clear that all independent variables are highly significant and provide an explanatory contribution. It also shows that higher inflation concerns lead to a higher estimate of perceived inflation.

Suggested Citation

  • Treu, Johannes & Hartwig, Johannes, 2023. "Perceived Inflation in Germany in 2022," MPRA Paper 118403, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    • Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:118403
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/118403/1/Perceived%20Inflation%20in%20Germany%202022.pdf
    File Function: original version
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Molnár, Krisztina & Santoro, Sergio, 2014. "Optimal monetary policy when agents are learning," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 66(C), pages 39-62.
    2. Paolo Giovane & Roberto Sabbatini, 2008. "Perceived and measured inflation after the launch of the euro: explaining the gap in Italy," Springer Books, in: Paolo Giovane & Roberto Sabbatini (ed.), The Euro, Inflation and Consumer’s Perceptions, chapter 1, pages 13-49, Springer.
    3. Ireland, Peter N., 2000. "Expectations, Credibility, And Time-Consistent Monetary Policy," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 4(4), pages 448-466, December.
    4. Tiziana Assenza & Te Bao & Cars Hommes & Domenico Massaro, 2014. "Experiments on Expectations in Macroeconomics and Finance," Research in Experimental Economics, in: Experiments in Macroeconomics, volume 17, pages 11-70, Emerald Group Publishing Limited.
    5. Carola Binder & Alex Rodrigue, 2018. "Household Informedness and Long‐Run Inflation Expectations: Experimental Evidence," Southern Economic Journal, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 85(2), pages 580-598, October.
    6. Christopher Roth & Johannes Wohlfart, 2020. "How Do Expectations about the Macroeconomy Affect Personal Expectations and Behavior?," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 102(4), pages 731-748, October.
    7. Alan K. Detmeister & David E. Lebow & Ekaterina V. Peneva, 2016. "Inflation Perceptions and Inflation Expectations," FEDS Notes 2016-12-05-2, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    8. Rodolfo Arioli & Colm Bates & Heinz Dieden & Ioana Duca & Roberta Friz & Christian Gayer & Geoff Kenny & Aidan Meyler & Iskra Pavlova, 2016. "EU Consumers’ Quantitative Inflation Perceptions and Expectations: An Evaluation," European Economy - Discussion Papers 038, Directorate General Economic and Financial Affairs (DG ECFIN), European Commission.
    9. Alberto Cavallo & Guillermo Cruces & Ricardo Perez-Truglia, 2017. "Inflation Expectations, Learning, and Supermarket Prices: Evidence from Survey Experiments," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 9(3), pages 1-35, July.
    10. Pfajfar, Damjan & Žakelj, Blaž, 2018. "Inflation Expectations And Monetary Policy Design: Evidence From The Laboratory," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 22(4), pages 1035-1075, June.
    11. Michael Weber & Yuriy Gorodnichenko & Olivier Coibion, 2023. "The Expected, Perceived, and Realized Inflation of US Households Before and During the COVID19 Pandemic," IMF Economic Review, Palgrave Macmillan;International Monetary Fund, vol. 71(1), pages 326-368, March.
    12. Gunther Schnabl & Tim Florian Sepp, 2021. "Inflationsziel und Inflationsmessung in der Eurozone im Wandel [Inflation Targeting and Inflation Measurement in the Euro Area in Transition]," Wirtschaftsdienst, Springer;ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, vol. 101(8), pages 615-620, August.
    13. Friedrich Fritzer & Fabio Rumler, 2015. "Determinants of Inflation Perceptions and Expectations: an Empirical Analysis for Austria," Monetary Policy & the Economy, Oesterreichische Nationalbank (Austrian Central Bank), issue 1, pages 11-26.
    14. Coibion, Olivier & Gorodnichenko, Yuriy & Kumar, Saten & Pedemonte, Mathieu, 2020. "Inflation expectations as a policy tool?," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 124(C).
    15. Hommes, Cars, 2018. "Behavioral & experimental macroeconomics and policy analysis: a complex systems approach," Working Paper Series 2201, European Central Bank.
    16. Olivier Armantier & Wändi Bruine de Bruin & Simon Potter & Giorgio Topa & Wilbert van der Klaauw & Basit Zafar, 2013. "Measuring Inflation Expectations," Annual Review of Economics, Annual Reviews, vol. 5(1), pages 273-301, May.
    17. Massaro, Domenico, 2013. "Heterogeneous expectations in monetary DSGE models," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 37(3), pages 680-692.
    18. Christopher A Sims, 2009. "Inflation expectations, uncertainty and monetary policy," BIS Working Papers 275, Bank for International Settlements.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Treu, Johannes & Hartwig, Johannes, 2022. "Messung der gefühlten Inflation in Deutschland," IU Discussion Papers - Business & Management 12 (November 2022), IU International University of Applied Sciences.
    2. Abildgren, Kim & Kuchler, Andreas, 2021. "Revisiting the inflation perception conundrum," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 67(C).
    3. Olivier Coibion & Yuriy Gorodnichenko & Michael Weber, 2022. "Monetary Policy Communications and Their Effects on Household Inflation Expectations," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 130(6), pages 1537-1584.
    4. Michael Weber & Francesco D'Acunto & Yuriy Gorodnichenko & Olivier Coibion, 2022. "The Subjective Inflation Expectations of Households and Firms: Measurement, Determinants, and Implications," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 36(3), pages 157-184, Summer.
    5. Olivier Coibion & Dimitris Georgarakos & Yuriy Gorodnichenko & Michael Weber, 2023. "Forward Guidance and Household Expectations," Journal of the European Economic Association, European Economic Association, vol. 21(5), pages 2131-2171.
    6. Cornand, Camille & Heinemann, Frank, 2022. "Monetary policy obeying the Taylor principle turns prices into strategic substitutes," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 200(C), pages 1357-1371.
    7. Christopher Roth & Johannes Wohlfart, 2020. "How Do Expectations about the Macroeconomy Affect Personal Expectations and Behavior?," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 102(4), pages 731-748, October.
    8. Coibion, Olivier & Gorodnichenko, Yuriy & Kumar, Saten & Pedemonte, Mathieu, 2020. "Inflation expectations as a policy tool?," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 124(C).
    9. Francesco D’Acunto & Andreas Fuster & Michael Weber, 2021. "Diverse Policy Committees Can Reach Underrepresented Groups," NBER Working Papers 29275, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    10. Andrade, Philippe & Gautier, Erwan & Mengus, Eric, 2023. "What matters in households’ inflation expectations?," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 138(C), pages 50-68.
    11. Peter Andrebriq & Carlo Pizzinelli & Christopher Roth & Johannes Wohlfart, 2022. "Subjective Models of the Macroeconomy: Evidence From Experts and Representative Samples [Rationally Confused: On the Aggregate Implications of Information Provision Policies]," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 89(6), pages 2958-2991.
    12. Rumler, Fabio & Valderrama, María Teresa, 2020. "Inflation literacy and inflation expectations: Evidence from Austrian household survey data," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 87(C), pages 8-23.
    13. Niu, Xiaoxiao & Harvey, Nigel, 2022. "Context effects in inflation surveys: The influence of additional information and prior questions," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 38(3), pages 988-1004.
    14. Goldfayn-Frank, Olga & Wohlfart, Johannes, 2018. "How do consumers adapt to a new environment in their economic forecasting? Evidence from the German reunification," IMFS Working Paper Series 129, Goethe University Frankfurt, Institute for Monetary and Financial Stability (IMFS).
    15. Link, Sebastian & Peichl, Andreas & Roth, Christopher & Wohlfart, Johannes, 2023. "Information frictions among firms and households," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 135(C), pages 99-115.
    16. Ehrmann, Michael & Blinder, Alan & De Haan, Jakob & ,, 2022. "Central Bank Communication with the General Public: Promise or False Hope?," CEPR Discussion Papers 17441, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    17. Michael Weber & Yuriy Gorodnichenko & Olivier Coibion, 2023. "The Expected, Perceived, and Realized Inflation of US Households Before and During the COVID19 Pandemic," IMF Economic Review, Palgrave Macmillan;International Monetary Fund, vol. 71(1), pages 326-368, March.
    18. Olivier Coibion & Yuriy Gorodnichenko & Tiziano Ropele, 2020. "Inflation Expectations and Firm Decisions: New Causal Evidence," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 135(1), pages 165-219.
    19. John Duffy, 2022. "Why macroeconomics needs experimental evidence," The Japanese Economic Review, Springer, vol. 73(1), pages 5-29, January.
    20. Bottone, Marco & Tagliabracci, Alex & Zevi, Giordano, 2022. "Inflation expectations and the ECB’s perceived inflation objective: Novel evidence from firm-level data," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 129(S), pages 15-34.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    inflation; perceived inflation; inflation expectations; inflation measurement;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E3 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles
    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:118403. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Joachim Winter (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/vfmunde.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.