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Optimal Monetary Policy when Agents are Learning

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  • Krisztina Molnar

    ()
    (NHH, UPF)

  • Sergio Santoro

    (UPF)

Abstract

Most studies of optimal monetary policy under learning rely on optimality conditions derived for the case when agents have rational expectations. In this paper, we derive optimal monetary policy in an economy where the Central Bank knows, and makes active use of, the learning algorithm agents follow in forming their expectations. In this setup, monetary policy can influence future expectations through its effect on learning dynamics, introducing an additional tradeoff between inflation and output gap stabilization. Specifically, the optimal interest rate rule reacts more aggressively to out-of-equilibrium inflation expectations and noisy cost-push shocks than would be optimal under rational expectations: the Central Bank exploits its ability to â€drive†future expectations closer to equilibrium. This optimal policy closely resembles optimal policy when the Central Bank can commit and agents have rational expectations. Monetary policy should be more aggressive in containing inflationary expectations when private agents pay more attention to recent data. In particular, when beliefs are updated according to recursive least squares, the optimal policy is time-varying: after a structural break the Central Bank should be more aggressive and relax the degree of aggressiveness in subsequent periods.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Society for Computational Economics in its series Computing in Economics and Finance 2006 with number 40.

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Date of creation: 04 Jul 2006
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Handle: RePEc:sce:scecfa:40

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Keywords: Optimal Monetary Policy; Learning; Rational Expectations;

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Cited by:
  1. Preston, Bruce, 2008. "Adaptive learning and the use of forecasts in monetary policy," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 32(11), pages 3661-3681, November.
  2. Evans, George W & Honkapohja, Seppo, 2008. "Expectations, Learning and Monetary Policy: An Overview of Recent Rersearch," CEPR Discussion Papers 6640, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  3. Alberto Locarno, 2012. "Monetary policy in a model with misspecified, heterogeneous and ever-changing expectations," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 888, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
  4. Michele Berardi, 2006. "Monetary policy with heterogeneous and misspecified expectations," Centre for Growth and Business Cycle Research Discussion Paper Series 81, Economics, The Univeristy of Manchester.
  5. Christian Jensen, 2006. "Expectations, Learning, and Discretionary Policymaking," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 2(4), December.
  6. Ichiro Muto, 2007. "Productivity Growth, Transparency, and Monetary Policy," IMES Discussion Paper Series 07-E-08, Institute for Monetary and Economic Studies, Bank of Japan.
  7. Adam, Klaus & Marcet, Albert, 2009. "Internal Rationality and Asset Prices," CEPR Discussion Papers 7498, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  8. Martin Melecky & Diego Rodríguez Palenzuela & Ulf Söderström, 2008. "Inflation Target Transparency and the Macroeconomy," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 490, Central Bank of Chile.
  9. Adam, Klaus & Marcet, Albert, 2011. "Internal rationality, imperfect market knowledge and asset prices," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 146(3), pages 1224-1252, May.
  10. repec:hal:cesptp:halshs-00609824 is not listed on IDEAS

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