A Rational Route to Randomness
AbstractAdaptively rational equilibrium is introduced, where agents adapt their beliefs by choosing from a finite set of predictor functions. Agents make a rational predictor choice, based upon a publically available performance measure such as realized past profits. This results in an adaptive belief system, where predictor choice is coupled to the market equilibrium dynamics. As a typical example, the cobweb model with rational versus naive expectations is analyzed. If the market is locally unstable and rational expectations are costly to obtain, a high intensity of choice for predictor selection leads to chaos and strange attractors.
Download InfoTo our knowledge, this item is not available for download. To find whether it is available, there are three options:
1. Check below under "Related research" whether another version of this item is available online.
2. Check on the provider's web page whether it is in fact available.
3. Perform a search for a similarly titled item that would be available.
Bibliographic InfoArticle provided by Econometric Society in its journal Econometrica.
Volume (Year): 65 (1997)
Issue (Month): 5 (September)
Other versions of this item:
- C00 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - General - - - General
- C10 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - General
- C13 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Estimation: General
- C19 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Other
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Evans, George W & Ramey, Garey, 1992. "Expectation Calculation and Macroeconomic Dynamics," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 82(1), pages 207-24, March.
- Grandmont, Jean-Michel, 1985. "On Endogenous Competitive Business Cycles," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 53(5), pages 995-1045, September.
- Grandmont, Jean-Michel, 1994. "Expectations formation and stability of large socioeconomic systems," CEPREMAP Working Papers (Couverture Orange) 9424, CEPREMAP.
- Carl Chiarella, 1992. "The Dynamics of Speculative Behaviour," Working Paper Series 13, Finance Discipline Group, UTS Business School, University of Technology, Sydney.
- Lux, Thomas, 1995. "Herd Behaviour, Bubbles and Crashes," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 105(431), pages 881-96, July.
- Pintus, Patrick & Sands, Ducan & De Vilder, Robin, 1996.
"On the transition from local regular to global irregular fluctuations,"
CEPREMAP Working Papers (Couverture Orange)
- Pintus, Patrick & Sands, Duncan & de Vilder, Robin, 2000. "On the transition from local regular to global irregular fluctuations," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 24(2), pages 247-272, February.
- P. Pintus & D. Sands & R. de Vilder, 1998. "On the transition from local regular to global irregular fluctuations," THEMA Working Papers 98-18, THEMA (THéorie Economique, Modélisation et Applications), Université de Cergy-Pontoise.
- Patrick Pintus & Ducan Sands & Robin De Vilder, 1998. "On the Transition from Local Regular to Global Irregular Fluctuations," Working Papers 98-54, Centre de Recherche en Economie et Statistique.
- Pintus, P. & Sands, D. & de Vilder, R., 1998. "On the Transition from Local Regular to Global Iregular Fluctuations," Papers 9818, Paris X - Nanterre, U.F.R. de Sc. Ec. Gest. Maths Infor..
- Marcet, Albert & Sargent, Thomas J, 1989. "Convergence of Least-Squares Learning in Environments with Hidden State Variables and Private Information," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 97(6), pages 1306-22, December.
- Benhabib, Jess & Day, Richard H., 1982. "A characterization of erratic dynamics in, the overlapping generations model," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 4(1), pages 37-55, November.
- Cabrales, Antonio & Hoshi, Takeo, 1996.
"Heterogeneous beliefs, wealth accumulation, and asset price dynamics,"
Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control,
Elsevier, vol. 20(6-7), pages 1073-1100.
- Antonio Cabrales & Takeo Hoshi, 1993. "Heterogeneous beliefs, wealth accumulation and asset price dynamics," Economics Working Papers 55, Department of Economics and Business, Universitat Pompeu Fabra, revised Jun 1993.
- Brock, William A & LeBaron, Blake D, 1996.
"A Dynamic Structural Model for Stock Return Volatility and Trading Volume,"
The Review of Economics and Statistics,
MIT Press, vol. 78(1), pages 94-110, February.
- William A. Brock & Blake D. LeBaron, 1995. "A Dynamic Structural Model for Stock Return Volatility and Trading Volume," NBER Working Papers 4988, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Blume, Lawrence & Easley, David, 1992. "Evolution and market behavior," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 58(1), pages 9-40, October.
- Ramon Marimon, 1993.
"Adaptive learning, evolutionary dynamics and equilibrium selection in games,"
Economics Working Papers
23, Department of Economics and Business, Universitat Pompeu Fabra.
- Marimon, Ramon, 1993. "Adaptive learning, evolutionary dynamics and equilibrium selection in games," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 37(2-3), pages 603-611, April.
- Hommes, Cars H., 1994. "Dynamics of the cobweb model with adaptive expectations and nonlinear supply and demand," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 24(3), pages 315-335, August.
- Sethi, Rajiv, 1996. "Endogenous regime switching in speculative markets," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 7(1), pages 99-118, March.
- Kurz, Mordecai, 1994. "On Rational Belief Equilibria," Economic Theory, Springer, vol. 4(6), pages 859-76, October.
- Townsend, Robert M, 1983. "Forecasting the Forecasts of Others," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 91(4), pages 546-88, August.
This item has more than 25 citations. To prevent cluttering this page, these citations are listed on a separate page. reading lists or Wikipedia pages:
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Wiley-Blackwell Digital Licensing) or (Christopher F. Baum).
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.