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Heterogeneous beliefs and routes to chaos in a simple asset pricing model

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  • Brock, William A.
  • Hommes, Cars H.

Abstract

This paper investigates the dynamics in the simple present discounted value asset pricing model with heterogeneous beliefs.

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Elsevier in its journal Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control.

Volume (Year): 22 (1998)
Issue (Month): 8-9 (August)
Pages: 1235-1274

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Handle: RePEc:eee:dyncon:v:22:y:1998:i:8-9:p:1235-1274

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References

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  1. M. M. Dacorogna & U. A. Muller & C. Jost & O. V. Pictet & J. R. Ward, 1995. "Heterogeneous real-time trading strategies in the foreign exchange market," The European Journal of Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 1(4), pages 383-403.
  2. John Haltiwanger & Michael Waldman, 1983. "Rational Expectations and the Limits of Rationality: An Analysis of Heterogeneity," UCLA Economics Working Papers 303, UCLA Department of Economics.
  3. Brock, W. A., 1986. "Distinguishing random and deterministic systems: Abridged version," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 40(1), pages 168-195, October.
  4. W. A. Brock, 1993. "Pathways to Randomness in the Economy: Emergent Nonlinearity and Chaos in Economics and Finance," Working Papers 93-02-006, Santa Fe Institute.
  5. Lux, Thomas, 1995. "Herd Behaviour, Bubbles and Crashes," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 105(431), pages 881-96, July.
  6. Kurz, Mordecai, 1994. "On the Structure and Diversity of Rational Beliefs," Economic Theory, Springer, vol. 4(6), pages 877-900, October.
  7. Arifovic, Jasmina, 1994. "Genetic algorithm learning and the cobweb model," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 18(1), pages 3-28, January.
  8. Brock, William A. & de Fontnouvelle, Patrick, 2000. "Expectational diversity in monetary economies," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 24(5-7), pages 725-759, June.
  9. William A. Brock & Cars H. Hommes, 1997. "A Rational Route to Randomness," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 65(5), pages 1059-1096, September.
  10. repec:fth:stanho:e-89-28 is not listed on IDEAS
  11. LeBaron, B., 1995. "Experiments in Evolutionary Finance," Working papers 9528, Wisconsin Madison - Social Systems.
  12. De Long, J Bradford & Andrei Shleifer & Lawrence H. Summers & Robert J. Waldmann, 1990. "Noise Trader Risk in Financial Markets," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 98(4), pages 703-38, August.
  13. De Bondt, Werner F M & Thaler, Richard, 1985. " Does the Stock Market Overreact?," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 40(3), pages 793-805, July.
  14. Arthur, W.B. & Holland, J.H. & LeBaron, B. & Palmer, R. & Tayler, P., 1996. "Asset Pricing Under Endogenous Expectations in an Artificial Stock Market," Working papers 9625, Wisconsin Madison - Social Systems.
  15. Hommes, Cars H., 1995. "A reconsideration of Hicks' non-linear trade cycle model," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 6(4), pages 435-459, December.
  16. Day, R. & Huang, W., 1988. "Bulls, Bears And Market Sheep," Papers m8822, Southern California - Department of Economics.
  17. Kurz, Mordecai, 1994. "On Rational Belief Equilibria," Economic Theory, Springer, vol. 4(6), pages 859-76, October.
  18. Brock, W. & Lakonishok, J. & Lebaron, B., 1991. "Simple Technical Trading Rules And The Stochastic Properties Of Stock Returns," Working papers 90-22, Wisconsin Madison - Social Systems.
  19. Krusell, Per & Smith, Anthony Jr., 1996. "Rules of thumb in macroeconomic equilibrium A quantitative analysis," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 20(4), pages 527-558, April.
  20. Carl Chiarella, 1992. "The Dynamics of Speculative Behaviour," Working Paper Series 13, Finance Discipline Group, UTS Business School, University of Technology, Sydney.
  21. William A. Brock & Blake D. LeBaron, 1995. "A Dynamic Structural Model for Stock Return Volatility and Trading Volume," NBER Working Papers 4988, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  22. Lucas, Robert E, Jr, 1978. "Asset Prices in an Exchange Economy," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 46(6), pages 1429-45, November.
  23. Bullard, James & Duffy, John, 1999. "Using Genetic Algorithms to Model the Evolution of Heterogeneous Beliefs," Computational Economics, Society for Computational Economics, vol. 13(1), pages 41-60, February.
  24. Sethi, Rajiv, 1996. "Endogenous regime switching in speculative markets," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 7(1), pages 99-118, March.
  25. Nelson, Daniel B., 1992. "Filtering and forecasting with misspecified ARCH models I : Getting the right variance with the wrong model," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 52(1-2), pages 61-90.
  26. Arifovic, Jasmina, 1995. "Genetic algorithms and inflationary economies," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 36(1), pages 219-243, August.
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