This file is part of IDEAS, which uses RePEc data


[ Papers | Articles | Software | Books | Chapters | Authors | Institutions | JEL Classification | NEP reports | Search | New papers by email | Author registration | Rankings | Volunteers | FAQ | Blog | Help! ]

Asset Pricing, Volatility and Market Behaviour: A Market Fraction Approach

Author info | Abstract | Publisher info | Download info | Related research | Statistics
Author Info
Xue-Zhong He () (School of Finance and Economics, University of Technology, Sydney)

Additional information is available for the following registered author(s):

Abstract

Motivated by recent development in structural agent models on asset pricing, explanation power and calibration issue of those models, this paper presents a simple market fraction model of two types of traders - fundamentalists and trend followers - under a market maker scenario. It is found that asset prices, wealth dynamics and market behaviour are characterised by the dynamics of the underlying deterministic system. The model is able to explain various market behaviour, and generate some of the stylized facts. By introducing two measures on wealth dynamics, we are able to show the limitations of profitability and rationality of different trading strategies. Six significant autocorrelation coefficients (ACs) patterns are charaterized by different types of bifurcation of the underlying deterministic system. In particular, an oscillating and decaying AC pattern with positive ACs for even lags and negative for odd lags can only be generated when the market is dominated by the fundamentalists (that is when the parameters are near the flip bifurcation boundary), and a positive decaying AC pattern with long memory can only be generated when the market is dominated by the trend followers with high decay memory (that is when the parameters are near the Hopf bifurcation boundary). The results show a promising power of stability analysis and bifurcation theory in explaining and calibrating asset price and wealth dynamics, markt behaviour, and generating various econometric properties of financial data.

Download Info
To download:

If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. Information about this may be contained in the File-Format links below. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.

File URL: http://www.business.uts.edu.au/qfrc/research/research_papers/rp95.pdf
File Format: application/pdf
File Function:
Download Restriction: no

Publisher Info
Paper provided by Quantitative Finance Research Centre, University of Technology, Sydney in its series Research Paper Series with number 95.

Download reference. The following formats are available: HTML (with abstract), plain text (with abstract), BibTeX, RIS (EndNote, RefMan, ProCite), ReDIF
Length:
Date of creation: 01 Jun 2003
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:uts:rpaper:95

Contact details of provider:
Postal: PO Box 123, Broadway, NSW 2007, Australia
Phone: +61 2 9514 7777
Fax: +61 2 9514 7711
Web page: http://www.business.uts.edu.au/qfrc/index.html
More information through EDIRC

For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its listing, contact: (Duncan Ford).

Related research
Keywords:

This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
  1. Brock, William A. & Hommes, Cars H., 1998. "Heterogeneous beliefs and routes to chaos in a simple asset pricing model," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 22(8-9), pages 1235-1274, August. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  2. William A. Brock & Cars H. Hommes, 1997. "A Rational Route to Randomness," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 65(5), pages 1059-1096, September.
  3. Lux, Thomas, 1998. "The socio-economic dynamics of speculative markets: interacting agents, chaos, and the fat tails of return distributions," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 33(2), pages 143-165, January. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  4. Day, Richard H. & Huang, Weihong, 1990. "Bulls, bears and market sheep," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 14(3), pages 299-329, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  5. Chiarella, Carl & He, Xue-Zhong, 2002. "Heterogeneous Beliefs, Risk and Learning in a Simple Asset Pricing Model," Computational Economics, Springer, vol. 19(1), pages 95-132, February. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  6. Carl Chiarella, 1992. "The Dynamics of Speculative Behaviour," Working Paper Series 13, School of Finance and Economics, University of Technology, Sydney. [Downloadable!]
  7. Chiarella, Carl & He, Xue-Zhong, 2003. "Dynamics of beliefs and learning under aL-processes -- the heterogeneous case," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 27(3), pages 503-531, January. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  8. Cars H. Hommes, 2001. "Financial Markets as Nonlinear Adaptive Evolutionary Systems," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 01-014/1, Tinbergen Institute. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  9. Sethi, Rajiv, 1996. "Endogenous regime switching in speculative markets," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 7(1), pages 99-118, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  10. De Long, J Bradford & Andrei Shleifer & Lawrence H. Summers & Robert J. Waldmann, 1990. "Noise Trader Risk in Financial Markets," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 98(4), pages 703-38, August. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  11. Hommes, C.H., 2001. "Modeling the stylized facts in finance through simple nonlinear adaptive systems," CeNDEF Working Papers 01-06, Universiteit van Amsterdam, Center for Nonlinear Dynamics in Economics and Finance. [Downloadable!]
  12. LeBaron, Blake, 2000. "Agent-based computational finance: Suggested readings and early research," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 24(5-7), pages 679-702, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  13. Stoll, Hans R, 1978. "The Supply of Dealer Services in Securities Markets," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 33(4), pages 1133-51, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  14. Peck, James, 1990. "Liquidity without money: A General equilibrium model of market microstructure," Journal of Financial Intermediation, Elsevier, vol. 1(1), pages 80-103, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  15. Gaunersdorfer, Andrea, 2000. "Endogenous fluctuations in a simple asset pricing model with heterogeneous agents," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 24(5-7), pages 799-831, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  16. Kyle, Albert S, 1985. "Continuous Auctions and Insider Trading," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 53(6), pages 1315-35, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  17. Pagan, Adrian, 1996. "The econometrics of financial markets," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 3(1), pages 15-102, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  18. Taylor, Mark P. & Allen, Helen, 1992. "The use of technical analysis in the foreign exchange market," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 11(3), pages 304-314, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  19. Carl Chiarella & Roberto Dieci & Laura Gardini, 2001. "Speculative Behaviour and Complex Asset Price Dynamics," Research Paper Series 49, Quantitative Finance Research Centre, University of Technology, Sydney.
  20. Xue-Zhong (Tony) He & Carl Chiarella, 2001. "Asset Price and Wealth Dynamics under Heterogeneous Expectations," CeNDEF Workshop Papers, January 2001 5A.2, Universiteit van Amsterdam, Center for Nonlinear Dynamics in Economics and Finance.
    Other versions:
  21. Lux, Thomas, 1997. "Time variation of second moments from a noise trader/infection model," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 22(1), pages 1-38, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  22. Iori, Giulia, 2002. "A microsimulation of traders activity in the stock market: the role of heterogeneity, agents' interactions and trade frictions," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 49(2), pages 269-285, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  23. Ho, Thomas & Stoll, Hans R., 1981. "Optimal dealer pricing under transactions and return uncertainty," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 9(1), pages 47-73, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  24. Bullard, James & Duffy, John, 1999. "Using Genetic Algorithms to Model the Evolution of Heterogeneous Beliefs," Computational Economics, Springer, vol. 13(1), pages 41-60, February. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  25. W. Brian Arthur & John H. Holland & Blake LeBaron & Richard Palmer & Paul Taylor, 1996. "Asset Pricing Under Endogenous Expectation in an Artificial Stock Market," Working Papers 96-12-093, Santa Fe Institute.
  26. J. Doyne Farmer & Shareen Joshi, 2000. "The Price Dynamics of Common Trading Strategies," Working Papers 00-12-069, Santa Fe Institute.
    Other versions:
  27. Carl Chiarella & Xue-Zhong He, 2000. "Heterogeneous Beliefs, Risk and Learning in a Simple Asset Pricing Model with a Market Maker," Research Paper Series 35, Quantitative Finance Research Centre, University of Technology, Sydney. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  28. Lux, Thomas, 1995. "Herd Behaviour, Bubbles and Crashes," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 105(431), pages 881-96, July. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  29. Chen, Shu-Heng & Yeh, Chia-Hsuan, 2002. "On the emergent properties of artificial stock markets: the efficient market hypothesis and the rational expectations hypothesis," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 49(2), pages 217-239, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  30. Garman, Mark B., 1976. "Market microstructure," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 3(3), pages 257-275, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
Full references

Statistics
Access and download statistics

Did you know? The yearly budget of IDEAS is exactly $0: it relies entirely on volunteer work.

This page was last updated on 2009-12-2.

This information is provided to you by IDEAS at the Department of Economics, College of Liberal Arts and Sciences, University of Connecticut using RePEc data on a server sponsored by the Society for Economic Dynamics.