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Long Memory, Heterogeneity, and Trend Chasing

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Author Info
Youwei Li
Xue-Zhong He

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Abstract

Long-range dependence in volatility is one of the most prominent examples of applications in financial market research involving universal power laws. Its characterization has recently spurred attempts at theoretical explanation of the underlying mechanism. This paper contributes to this recent development by analyzing a simple market fraction asset pricing model with two types of traders---fundamentalists who trade on the price deviation from estimated fundamental value and trend followers who follow a trend which is updated through a geometric learning process. Our analysis shows that the heterogeneity, trend chasing through learning, and the interplay of noisy processes and a stable deterministic equilibrium can be the source of power-law distributed fluctuations. Statistical analysis based on Monte Carlo simulations are conducted to characterize the long memory. Realistic estimates of the power-law decay indices and the (FI)GARCH parameters are presented

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Publisher Info
Paper provided by Society for Computational Economics in its series Computing in Economics and Finance 2005 with number 113.

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Date of creation: 11 Nov 2005
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Handle: RePEc:sce:scecf5:113

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Related research
Keywords: Asset pricing; fundamentalists and trend followers; market fraction; stability; learning; long memory.;

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Find related papers by JEL classification:
C10 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods: General - - - General
D40 - Microeconomics - - Market Structure and Pricing - - - General
G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing

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