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Expectation Formation and Endogenous Fluctuations in Aggregate Demand

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Author Info
Maciej K. Dudek

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Abstract

The paper recognizes that expectations and the process of their formation are subject to standard decision making and are determined as a part of equilibrium. Accordingly, the paper presents a basic framework in which the form of expectation formation is a choice variable. At any point in time rational economic agents decide on the basis of the level of utility what expectation formation technology to use and as a consequence what expectations to hold. As economic decisions are conditioned on expectations holding proper or rational expectations eliminates the possibility of ex ante inefficiencies. The choice of expectation formation technology is not trivial as the paper assumes that information gathering and processing are costly. Consequently, economic agents must make informed decisions with the regard to the quality of expectation formation technologies they wish to use. The paper shows that agents' optimization over expectations not only adds on to realism, but also can carry non trivial implications for the behavior of macroeconomic variables. Specifically, the paper illustrates that endogenous expectation revisions can be a source of permanent oscillations in aggregate demand and can prevent an economy from settling into a steady state. In addition, the paper quantifies intangible notions such as overheating, overborrowing, and output gap. Finally, the paper shows that active policy measures can limit inefficiencies resulting from output fluctuations

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Paper provided by Society for Computational Economics in its series Computing in Economics and Finance 2005 with number 263.

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Date of creation: 11 Nov 2005
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Handle: RePEc:sce:scecf5:263

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Related research
Keywords: Business Cycles; Expectation Formation; Costly Information Acquisition.;

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Find related papers by JEL classification:
D84 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Expectations; Speculations
E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles

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  1. Brock, W.A. & Dindo, P.D.E. & Hommes, C.H., 2005. "Adaptive Rational Equilibrium with Forward Looking Agents, fortcoming in International Journal of Economic Theory (IJET) 2006, special issue in honor of Jean-Michel Grandmont," CeNDEF Working Papers 05-15, Universiteit van Amsterdam, Center for Nonlinear Dynamics in Economics and Finance. [Downloadable!]
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