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A behavioral cobweb-like commodity market model with heterogeneous speculators

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  • Westerhoff, Frank
  • Wieland, Cristian

Abstract

According to empirical studies, speculators place significant orders in commodity markets and may cause bubbles and crashes. This paper develops a cobweb-like commodity market model that takes into account the behavior of technical and fundamental speculators. We show that interactions between consumers, producers and heterogeneous speculators may produce price dynamics which mimics the cyclical price motion of actual commodity markets, i.e., irregular switches between bullish and bearish price developments. Moreover, we find that the impact of speculators on price dynamics is non-trivial: depending on the market structure, speculative transactions may either be beneficial or harmful for market stability.

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Elsevier in its journal Economic Modelling.

Volume (Year): 27 (2010)
Issue (Month): 5 (September)
Pages: 1136-1143

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Handle: RePEc:eee:ecmode:v:27:y:2010:i:5:p:1136-1143

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Web page: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/inca/30411

Related research

Keywords: Commodity markets Cobweb models Heterogeneous speculators Bifurcation analysis;

References

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  13. Hommes, C.H., 2000. "Financial Markets as Nonlinear Adaptive Evolutionary Systems," CeNDEF Working Papers 00-03, Universiteit van Amsterdam, Center for Nonlinear Dynamics in Economics and Finance.
  14. Lux, T. & M. Marchesi, . "Volatility Clustering in Financial Markets: A Micro-Simulation of Interacting Agents," Discussion Paper Serie B 437, University of Bonn, Germany, revised Jul 1998.
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  16. Chiarella, Carl & He, Xue-Zhong & Hung, Hing & Zhu, Peiyuan, 2006. "An analysis of the cobweb model with boundedly rational heterogeneous producers," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 61(4), pages 750-768, December.
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