Advanced Search
MyIDEAS: Login to save this article or follow this journal

Error learning behaviour and stability revisited

Contents:

Author Info

  • Colucci, Domenico
  • Valori, Vincenzo

Abstract

We study the implications of error learning behaviour on the global dynamic properties of stationary equilibria in discrete time deterministic models under bounded rationality. We assume agents' ability to learn from the past performance of their expectations formation mechanism, so that such mechanism itself is made endogenous. We determine sufficient conditions under which this type of error learning behaviour enhances the stability properties of the economy. Also, we show that the set of error learning rules compatible with these conditions is not small in a topological sense and that this set can be used to approximate, with arbitrary precision, alternative learning rules that have been considered in the literature. We focus on the consequences of these results on a class of models in which agents possess fading memory, along the lines of a thread of recent literature. In particular, in this framework we treat adaptive expectations as a special case. We propose a generalisation of this expectation mechanism with fading memory which tries to capture the attitude of agents in the presence of exogenous shocks or structural breaks.

(This abstract was borrowed from another version of this item.)

Download Info

If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/B6V85-4C40W0H-1/2/82084e0e614dea5f422268a221c6a57e
Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only

As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version under "Related research" (further below) or search for a different version of it.

Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Elsevier in its journal Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control.

Volume (Year): 29 (2005)
Issue (Month): 3 (March)
Pages: 371-388

as in new window
Handle: RePEc:eee:dyncon:v:29:y:2005:i:3:p:371-388

Contact details of provider:
Web page: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/jedc

Related research

Keywords:

Other versions of this item:

References

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
as in new window
  1. Fuchs, Gerard, 1979. "Is error learning behaviour stabilizing?," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 20(3), pages 300-317, June.
  2. Evans, George W. & Honkapohja, S., 1998. "Stochastic gradient learning in the cobweb model," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 61(3), pages 333-337, December.
  3. James Bullard, 1991. "Learning equilibria," Working Papers 1991-004, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
  4. Hommes, Cars H., 1994. "Dynamics of the cobweb model with adaptive expectations and nonlinear supply and demand," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 24(3), pages 315-335, August.
  5. Brock, W.A. & Hommes, C.H., 1996. "A Rational Route to Randomness," Working papers 9530r, Wisconsin Madison - Social Systems.
  6. Evans, George W. & Ramey, Garey, 1998. "Calculation, Adaptation And Rational Expectations," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 2(02), pages 156-182, June.
  7. Colucci, Domenico & Valori, Vincenzo, 2005. "Error learning behaviour and stability revisited," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 29(3), pages 371-388, March.
  8. Barucci, Emilio & Landi, Leonardo, 1997. "Least mean squares learning in self-referential linear stochastic models," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 57(3), pages 313-317, December.
  9. Grandmont, Jean-Michel, 1994. "Expectations formation and stability of large socioeconomic systems," CEPREMAP Working Papers (Couverture Orange) 9424, CEPREMAP.
  10. Marcet, Albert & Sargent, Thomas J., 1989. "Convergence of least squares learning mechanisms in self-referential linear stochastic models," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 48(2), pages 337-368, August.
  11. Fuchs, Gerard & Laroque, Guy, 1976. "Dynamics of Temporary Equilibria and Expectations," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 44(6), pages 1157-78, November.
  12. Jan Tuinstra, 2001. "Beliefs Equilbria in an Overlapping Generations Model," CeNDEF Workshop Papers, January 2001 4B.4, Universiteit van Amsterdam, Center for Nonlinear Dynamics in Economics and Finance.
  13. Balasko, Yves & Royer, Daniel, 1996. "Stability of Competitive Equilibrium with Respect to Recursive and Learning Processes," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 68(2), pages 319-348, February.
  14. Evans, George W & Ramey, Garey, 1992. "Expectation Calculation and Macroeconomic Dynamics," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 82(1), pages 207-24, March.
  15. Slonim, Robert L., 1999. "Learning rules of thumb or learning more rational rules," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 38(2), pages 217-236, February.
  16. Hommes, Cars H., 1991. "Adaptive learning and roads to chaos : The case of the cobweb," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 36(2), pages 127-132, June.
  17. Schonhofer, Martin, 2001. "Can agents learn their way out of chaos?," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 44(1), pages 71-83, January.
  18. Hommes, Cars & Sorger, Gerhard, 1998. "Consistent Expectations Equilibria," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 2(03), pages 287-321, September.
  19. Barucci, Emilio, 2000. "Exponentially fading memory learning in forward-looking economic models," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 24(5-7), pages 1027-1046, June.
  20. Lucas, Robert E, Jr, 1986. "Adaptive Behavior and Economic Theory," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 59(4), pages S401-26, October.
Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

Citations

Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
as in new window

Cited by:
  1. Domenico Colucci & Vincenzo Valori, 2004. "Generalised Fading Memory Learning in a Cobweb Model: some evidence," Computing in Economics and Finance 2004 272, Society for Computational Economics.
  2. Domenico Colucci & V. Valori, 2001. "Error learning behaviour and stability revisited," CeNDEF Workshop Papers, January 2001 1A.1, Universiteit van Amsterdam, Center for Nonlinear Dynamics in Economics and Finance.
  3. Carvalho, Fabia A. & Minella, André, 2012. "Survey forecasts in Brazil: A prismatic assessment of epidemiology, performance, and determinants," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 31(6), pages 1371-1391.

Lists

This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.

Statistics

Access and download statistics

Corrections

When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:dyncon:v:29:y:2005:i:3:p:371-388. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Zhang, Lei).

If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.